http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_n.png UB take another sharp drop.

Anu, has Cryosat2 released any data outside of there jan/feb data? will you update all of us on the latest? Please and Thanks. I try to find it, but it's hard to find it all together.

That 70,000km2 was there yesterday too?

You must be great company to be around- the UB final chart shows more than 60,000km2 loss. You can Download PS5 demo and see for yourself. Oh well. You were right, congrats.

@ Kevin, SSTS are natural variability. But only the 1st time. Once they get going they drive themselves. They become the cause. Even of NV and GHG allow the ice to melt to allow for SSTS to get out of control. Then it is on the SSTs. This year most of us will agree SSTs are 80-90 percent for this year. GHGs and NV are a much smaller piece of it. If the wind did it then NV would be much higher. Since that is only system specific where as SSTs come from multi forces then drive themselves.

Temperature is mostly SST based which in the arctic is mostly from the absence of ice. Which might be started by GHGs and NV, but they did not warm the water that is killing the ice now necessarily directly. We can blame the AGW for this but on a micro level I believe many factors come into play. If that is true. A winter of massive ice growth say 16 mil km2 or higher then a summer with great cold conditions could slow the loss and reverse volume for a few years at best.

If I had to put my current line of thought on the role of these factors by percentage for different time periods here goes: (DIRECT FACTORS, NOT INDIRECT) natural Variability GHG's(including Co2) Temperatures, including SST's [quote] 1979-2011: Natural variability(40%) GHG's(20%) Temperatures(40%) 2007-2011: Natural variability(10%) GHG's(10%) Temperatures(80%)[/quote] Since 2007 the role of AGW has likely went from 30-40% of the ice decline from 1990-2006. And Temperature feedback has gone up exponentially. If this process can be shutdown by something else for a while...I can definitely see the ice stopping and gaining volume for a while. Until AGW catches up wit the ever increasing rise of GHG's. On the flip side if this does not get impeded. We are about to see the ice dramatically drop to possibly near ice free conditions in less then 5 years. The data on this is clear. The SSTs are crushing the ice from the sides and from below. Not AGW currently, even though natural variability and AGW were triggers for the SSTs to get out of control and decimate the ice. it is likely since the early to mid 2000s that Ice volume was crippled. If this continues, we will see the bottom drop out so to speak. As in the ice as we can see in the laptev will melt out from below, not from the top or sides. This is a complete admission that i estimated AGW's role in this as a much larger factor then it was and has been. However SSTs are much more dangerous and deadly for ice in the short term.

@TWEMORAN, your right, thank you. Regardless it shows how much weakening of the ice there was there and recede. Not surprising with record warm waters being pumped into super thin ice.

@Anu, I can't help you there. I hope you realize 1 line of Longitude is 60NM which is 112KM. if you go into photoshop and overlay the graphs you can see large areas of 40-50km recede and then in the Beaufort areas of thin ice dissapeared. On the East side ice receded slightly and ice in the Fram opened holes back up. And also receded. We know ice in the ESB based on wind profiles will also go down. I am sorry you can not see this. This is one of the larger drops. And looks quite a bit larger then yesterdays.

UB prelim map is out and all I can say it an other 100K drop is coming tonight maybe more.

what was last years Fiasco? I apologized to him. I have no problems doing that. I don;t have to get over on him for him to know how he really is. He knows.

apparently the guy who made the absurd prediction was: http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/19/arctic-sea-ice-has-grown-since-september-1/ Not Watts..I apologized. Watts could have laid that out better..I wasn't the only one who fell for it.

I hope you guys read his reply to me. It was priceless and complete garbage..I bet you his followers believe him.

the guy tried to spin this: Don’t sweat the ice area statistics. The thickness is much greater today, and we could even say the volume is likely more. Arctic temperatures above 80°N have been colder this summer and September. The ice area will rebound quickly, of course. I projected a 5.75 million sq km min. for 2011 a couple weeks back. I’m sticking to it. He said that here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/19/sea-ice-news-23-plus-a-bonus-noaa-blunder/#comments SO he actually said it twice. Now here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/31/final-arctic-sea-ice-forecast-poll/#comment-732789 I guess he forgot his grandiose prediction to feed the heart and souls of his cronies. I posted this on there, lets see if he publishes it. He also lied in his most recent post. If you take the NSIDC chart and throw it in photoshop you can see its between 4.8-4.9km2. Not around 5km2 and that was the 29th on a 5 day mean not including the todays large drop. and his followers are saying we hit bottom right now at 4.8-4.9. Does he have any integrity? How can he be like this and sleep at night. He has to be aware of this horrible manipulation.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/plots/satsst.arc.d-00.png Water encroachment. lots of warm water still flooding into the Arctic.

I asked Anthony Watts to be accountable for his 5,750,000km2 prediction and he deleted my post. I asked him how he could have possibly predicted that with the data and listed the data we had for him. Good Grief. Neven, feel free to delete my post if this bothers you. I am just so mad right now.

-93,000K loss tonight on Jaxa. Definitely helped by the big day yesterday. But still another big drop.

Sorry for the typos. On I phone.

TzPancic, We are at 4.9 million km2 on jaxa and 4.7-4.8 milliom km2 on UB. We have two more days in August with very favorable conditions. Jaca runs a two day average. So today was close to a century break. We will be at 4.75 - 4.80 million km2 on September 1st. With 2-3 weeks maybe more to go. But you are preductung that and calling my forecasts bad. You also posted a link to a H5 vort chart and saud it wasnt lookImg good fir ice loss that week. Are you trolling?

UB looks like it went up slightly. Jaxa and UB both got the same data. Jaxas 2 day running avg. Caused it to drop some while UB dropped none. Same reason yesterday UB dropped more than jaxa. Then there is whatever grid res accounts for. As the ice compacts jaxa will drop faster then ub

UB looks like it went up slightly. Jaxa and UB both got the same data. Jaxas 2 day running avg. Caused it to drop some while UB dropped none. Same reason yesterday UB dropped more than jaxa. Then there is whatever grid res accounts for. As the ice compacts java will drop faster then ub

Ther is a Ton of 30-50% ice on the Bremen map. Quite incredible. We can match the fast decline of the outer ice with Healys webcam. This is a new ring around the ice pack. The bottom melt has to be going to town. Many of these areas have been cloudy with -4 to -8 or lower 85os the last week and still quickly melting out. 00z gfs is out and has gone back to a late season Ice melt machine. 1. The temps are warm. The models again throw old the medium Range cold. Now throw 3-7C into the Kara/laptev around 20-30kt winds for 3 days before modifying. This torches the entire sea. Expect Ssts to respond. And that warm water will be thrushes at the ice already melting out from warm says there already. 2. Beaufort temps torch. Models continue to bring in 3 to upwards of 8c 850s along the shore. The flow is directly into the arctic basin from the bearing sea. The water is already warm there. Will get a boost. 3. Compaction in the Beaufort, western arctic basin, east siberian sea, Kara, Greenland sea and Canadian basin will commence. Instead of a dipole anomaly. The arctic gets wind flows and temps distributed as good as can be in the arctic late August to keep heat on the ice. The only cold is over areas that are already solid or undercutted by warm surface winds. And Ssts.

Given grid resolution Bremen likely dies a Better job with a slush puppy ice pack. More grids will come up ice free compared to Jaxa. Like in the 135E to 105E area. UB will do much better there. Same with East Siberian Sea and that hole between the two arms of ice.

The beafuort had a lot of convergence today. Let's see how UB dies tonight I bet it's a flat day or very small decline. Almost certain. Java has a 2-Day running average. So a -29K prelim from a-46k final Suggests a very tiny melt day which the UB map also backs.

There is no lag. Bremens graph uses a different Y axis. They are identical most of the year except when the Ice is slushy with water holes all over. Jaxa uses a 2 day running average to keepit smoother.