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That Watts blog prediction might out do this blog from last year.
The ice in a bad way currently.
Worse then most realize.
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: June report
The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, bas...
In the next 4-5 days at least the Laptev and ESS get totally smashed. The GFS smashes them up hardcore for the next 7-10 days.
The Euro is less invasive but messes them up something fierce.
Lot's of off shore flow with highs in the 60s to near 80F in places with lows in the 40s and 50s.
I guess that would be like highs in the 17-25C range and lows in the 5-10C range.
The open water area which is already huge will get larger the fast ice will turn blue and start showing fractures and stuff.
Or just get really dark with the melt being so off the charts.
ASI 2014 update 2: here comes the Sun
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Are we talking about modeled loss?
That seems pretty crazy given the amazing difference in total surface insolation by July 30th.
ASI 2014 update 2: here comes the Sun
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
-180K today on CT area.
Essentially tied with 2010 and 2012 for dead last.
ASI 2014 update 2: here comes the Sun
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
The ice is already -600K below 2013 on CT and -300K below 2013 on Jaxa.
ASI 2014 update 2: here comes the Sun
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
It's crazy how much the -PDO period in the mid 1940s to late 1970s coincides with major nuclear testing.
I am not saying there is any correlation but damn.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.B.gif
Looking at GISS temps drops right at the start of outdoor nuclear testing. Obviously we would presume that they are took weak to cause cooling but the tests did get stronger. Then right after the biggest outdoor test ever with the TSAR bomb temps drop of substantially.
There was also a long term rise in sun spot activity peaking in the 1950s while temps dropped and GHGs kept rising.
Global nuclear testing tapered off big time during tne 1960s. The coincidence is quite note worthy but could just be completely coincidental.
Greenland 2013 in review
Here's a re-post of the NSIDC's Greenland Ice Sheet Today website, but let me also draw attention to this wonderful new resource, Polar Portal, set up by various Danish scientific research organisations. It has various maps and graphs depicting the situation on Greenland, but also the rest of th...
what happens with the ice this summer will soley come down to weather.
If the weather is like 2013 the ice retreat will be like 2013 versus 2007-2012
ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
The Euro has backed off big time now keeping a PV anomaly over the Beaufort/CAB the next 10 days keeping the warmth well confined to parts of the ESS and Laptev.
Huge change from a day ago.
Models are so worthless past day 4 in the arctic region.
The Euro had the same solution for like 3-4 days then right when the event is expected to be underway it changes so much.
So unreliable.
ASI 2014 update 1: melt pond May
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
we are entering unprecedented territory and the worst is still to come. We haven't seen anything yet. So far this is all wind driven and solar maintained.
Solar prevents freeze up but the melt hasn't really started on the Russian side. But that is about to dramatically and radically change.
Oh and the winds are expected to continue to blow the ice towards the Atlantic.
I have zero doubt if this dipole continues into mid June this year will be like 2007 was in it's time.
PIOMAS May 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: On the PIOMAS website the following is written: The 2014 ice volume reached its annual maximum in Ap...
Cryosat appears to be having issues with resolving the effect snow cover has on estimates.
2013 has very high snow cover all over the arctic basin. One buoy shows almost 1 meter.
2011 had little to none. Look at how thin the CAB was on Cryosat. I highly doubt that is accurate. Even though there was a lot of thinning there.
CryoSat: Arctic sea ice up from record low
We have monthly PIOMAS updates, a new sea ice thickness product derived from SMOS brightness temperatures was presented earlier this month (see video), and now it's time for some more news from the third of the thickness trident: CryoSat-2. From the European Space Agency website: Arctic sea ice...
There is no ice in the Hudson Bay.
There is no refreeze North of Svalbard.
ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
I still think we will drop to around 2011 on jaxa.
Very strong winds are pounding the ice on the Eastern side centered over Franz Josef Land. This is foreasted to continue for days on end.
The ice edge has already been nailed back to near 84N.
3-4 days in a row of long fetch warm Southerly winds will push it back close to 85N and it will meet up with the large open water areas and allow further encroachment of the warmer water that is right up against the ice sheet.
The ice in the Laptev region is all toast there is a large area of open water in the middle of it that has been skewed from the sensors quite a bit.
The ice is a wreck all the way up to the ESS and Chuchki essentially along the PM through the pole.
With high pressure forecast to sit over the Laptev and ESS the next 7-10 days I think we will see steady opening of water here.
Winds are forecast to blow hard from the Chukchi through the Southern half of the ESS and push the ice in the ESS towards the Russian coast where there is warmer water. The winds will be blowing off of even warmer water in the 2-6C range.
Essentially three sides of the ESS is exposed to open water that will help aid in melt when the ice is being shuffled that hard around in it.
ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
Guess he has never heard of up-welling.
Are Arctic cyclones chewing up sea ice?
The NSIDC Icelights blog has been on a roll lately, answering questions that are on a lot of lips here on the Arctic Sea Ice blog (see also last month's post on scientific conservatism). This time the storminess that characterizes this melting season is discussed, by no less than NSIDC director ...
I think we still drop over 2 million in extent. Maybe up to 2.5 mil. I have been holding on to 4.4 mil jaxa min and 2.9 mil CT min. I am feel comfortable holding there.
There is a lot of thin ice to go. Lot's of whispy ice still being counted over the pacific side.
The Beaufort/CAA is about to be torched big time. But a lot of cold air is forecasted to be over the central basin into the ESS.
While it's in bad shape. It may not all melt out.
At this point to reach the blogs consensus we need a miracle.
ASI 2013 update 5: cyclone time again
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
I am going with 4.65 million.
Even that will take either the largest drop on the NSIDC extent charts from this point on or close to it.
The Weather models show compaction picking up a bit soon but are still really cold for most of the arctic. The Beaufort gets torched good.
jaxa is sitting at 6.98 mil while NSIDC single day is at 7.15 million.
I can't see anyway over the next 5-6 weeks the rate of extent drop per day will be near 100,000K to reach the blogs consensus.
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (July report & call for August predictions)
In mid-June through early July, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 82 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 82 predictions was 3.2 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50% of prediction...
Potential major pattern change.
But more-so the Atlantic side(Nansen Basin) get's smoked and then smoked harder and then harder by incoming warmth and sunny skies.
ASI 2013 update 3: the Arctic goes POP
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
The computer models out through the first few days of July are very favorable for protecting the ice.
The euro even forms another powerful cyclone. So more cold temps and clouds. More snow.
If the folks thinking its causing bottom melt are right it may be a huge coup.
If not the ice will be well protected from the mega torch in NA and Parts of Eurasia.
Obviously the models could be wrong
ASI 2013 update 3: the Arctic goes POP
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
GFS still bringing the basin wide melt.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
Open water all the way to Greenland is a big commitment.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
So most of you expect all of the FYI to melt and at least half of the MYI?
all in roughly 80-85 days?
Even though SIV is higher than 2012 and 2011 and the weather so far has been much better for ice preservation?
Why didn't this happen in 2011 or 2012 during more ideal melting conditions?
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
That buoy is wrong. The other ones next to it do not show that
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
To match 2012 we will need some epic weather and epic melt rates going forward.
To go past 2012 double up the epic-ness.
To get to the 2-2.9 mil Sept min we will need a all out 1030HP Dipole parked over the Beafort/CAB/Central Basin for 40-50 days at least.
To get under 2 million call in an act of God. Or a few small thermonuclear fission explosions within the ice pack to incinerate and obliterate it.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
I give myself a 4.
I have looked at the arctic weather everyday since early 2011. Followed others since 2008.
Spent 500-1000 hours at least reading literature on the hardware(remote sensing, ITP's, computer algorithms) Countless hours reading papers. Countless hours scouring the WHOI site and past buoy data.
I have learned that
weather supersedes all.
Albedo is next...
ice thickness is next.
I predicted 4.5 mil km2 preseason for 2011 min.
And busted with 4.3 mil preseason for 2012.
The only region I have ever read or seen that can melt out ice above 5CM per day for any length of time is the Beaufort where Bottom ice melt + Top melt can = 20CM+ per day.
Just because the ice is fractured doesn't mean bottom ice melt in the central arctic basin is going to be enormous.
So far I have seen an incredible utter lack of respect for the weathers impacts on solar insolation.
So the cyclones/cold atmosphere have wasted thousands of W/m2 of incoming solar energy this melt season.
The Beaufort has barely even begun to melt. Snow is finally melted and it's already peak insolation.
This buoy shows no ice melt in the Beaufort:
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/irid_data/2012H_thick.png
This one shows top melt and a tiny bit of bottom has started:
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012L.htm
North Pole has upwards of 20-30CM of fresh snow still
no ice melt
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2013E.htm
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
2013 isn't going to blow by 2012 this week or next week.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/irid_data/2013B_temp.png
Still below freezing near the pole.
The Beaufort is still full of ice.
The Kara is still way behind 2012, 2011, and 2010.
The pattern is still not great for ice loss.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
Looking at these predictions I am clearly not being ridiculous.
So people know that solar insolation has been way low this year vs the 2007-2012 period so far.
They know more snow exists on the ice than in those years so far.
They know a big contributor to the epic melts was heat in the water. Do you know how far behind this year is? Yeah, soooooo far!
2013 had higher volume as of the last piomas update over 2011 and 2012. It's all but certain the next one will be double that in terms of difference or even higher.
It's taken a JJA NAO pattern like we have never seen back to at least 1895 to make this happen.
We can attribute some of it to feedback's but we don't know how much.
but we know a positive or neutral NAO = more ice.
p://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
It's June 15th. Basing the sea ice min on the most recent year's is over. We are a quarter of the way into the melt season. And it's been a complete 180 of recent years. if 2012 started like up to this point and still had the same weather after wards it would of came no where close to the record low it got to.
I don't have to pretend otherwise I can chop off a quarter of the melt season and know that a whole lot of melt now has to be crammed into a smaller time frame that will have to be like 2007 to get back to 2012 or below.
There isn't a magic energy tree coming to shake some energy here and there to play catchup.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Mean September Sea Ice Extent (July update)
Each June, July and August, the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) collects predictions for the mean extent of Arctic sea ice in September. These predictions come mainly from scientists but also some other people, drawing on a variety of modeling, statistical or subjective methods that each contributo...
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