Hi Neven, You point out the complication of SIE vs MPF late in your article. So, who is going to rise to the challenge of producing a formula which incorporates extent, +/- anomaly, +/- MPF, =/- MPF anomaly? That could make the prognosis clearer...

The pattern you describe, of southward drift, is projected to continue at a pace by the DMI in the Barents and Greenland Seas. Drift is also showing southward in the Bering Sea. But AARI is showing the 'far' side of Novaya Zemlya as Nilas. So in part, the next week's numbers may depend on how the various 'interpretations' read the drift - as thin pack, or lose drift ice. It looks like Hudson Bay has started to thaw, and this will also impact on the overall numbers. Note that Barents SSTs are above zero and wind and current are still pushing heat northwards.

Shouldn't really be on this thread, but I'm not a part of the forum AFAIK, so :http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/24603 Published a few days back, it looks at results from a GCM and an RCM our to the 2030s and then the 2080s. The usual caveats apply, but one headline indicator was temperature increases up to +15K. Some interesting graphics on sea ice extents, too...

A couple of graphics I don't often see here but might be relevant to the discussion: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php and http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php parameter ice convergence, are Arctic Ocean...

With the AO switching to positive after a long negative period, the cyclonic activity and bouy chart information, it looks like there will be a short-lived 'Fram Flush', pushing the sea ice southwards for it to disperse and melt. This should accelerate the melt for a bit. How much would depend on the duration of the event and the strength of the winds and currents. For this reason i suspect 2014's minumum will be a little later and a little lower than 2013's, though I have given up on the nid range of my June prediction...

I suspect the media are wise to the fact that they can't link this to a hypothetical 'alarm', since SLR levels aren't sufficiently Diluvian. In addition, the story needs a better graphic representation to grab attention, eg, a polar bear falling off the top...

ggelsrink; 23 times more potent, but atmospheric lifespan only 8-11 years, compared to much much longer for CO2. So you're right. Wally Broecker speculated that the Laurentide event might have been connected to a mega-huge clathrate release from a Norwegian shelf collapse, but has since expressed doubt on this hypothesis. Methane is a contributor, 'short term'. Problem seems to be if methane increases rapidly (orders of magnitude) after a 'tipping point', either through sub-ocean clathrates or permafrost melt-out, it results in a short, rapid burst of extra heating, which could then start another tipping point, such as the melt-out of the GIS; so it's more of a 'disaster scenario' than the more subtle, more damaging & more persistent CO2 warming. Think in terms of timescales - how soon can we expect uncontrolled feedbacks?

Two thoughts: Saw a recent paper (then lost it) which linked AMOC and Greenland, but not sure whether it linked it with temperatures, SMB or Glaciers... Can anyone find it? Saw another paper drawing attention to considerable increases in Arctic water export via the Fram Strait, both very recent. Question: if AMOC is weakening, reducing heat to the Northern Oceans, and ABW export increasing, does this suggest the possibility that Greenland temperatures may show a slower trend on a decadal scale? Point 2. Understand the problem of concern trolling completely, but worried that there is a danger of assuming that someone who is not a scientist and expresses uncertainty over the science is ipso facto a concern troll. Sometimes genuine people really do want help understanding the science. IMO it's not in the best interests of those who do understand to isolate those who don't, because the latter will end up being another spice in the curry recipe...