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Hi Neven,
You point out the complication of SIE vs MPF late in your article. So, who is going to rise to the challenge of producing a formula which incorporates extent, +/- anomaly, +/- MPF, =/- MPF anomaly? That could make the prognosis clearer...
2016 melting momentum, part 1
Melting momentum, it's what I call the absorption of heat and solar radiation during May and June that does not directly lead to melt and a reduction in ice cover, but rather comes into play during July and August (I had a more wordy explanation last year). As important as it seems to be for th...
The pattern you describe, of southward drift, is projected to continue at a pace by the DMI in the Barents and Greenland Seas. Drift is also showing southward in the Bering Sea. But AARI is showing the 'far' side of Novaya Zemlya as Nilas.
So in part, the next week's numbers may depend on how the various 'interpretations' read the drift - as thin pack, or lose drift ice. It looks like Hudson Bay has started to thaw, and this will also impact on the overall numbers. Note that Barents SSTs are above zero and wind and current are still pushing heat northwards.
Early record, late record
10 days ago I posted a blog post called Mad max. The title - referring to a very early maximum sea ice extent - ended with a question mark, because it was far from sure whether the preliminary max reached on February 15th would remain standing. This is because of the oscillatory nature of the f...
Shouldn't really be on this thread, but I'm not a part of the forum AFAIK, so :http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/24603
Published a few days back, it looks at results from a GCM and an RCM our to the 2030s and then the 2080s.
The usual caveats apply, but one headline indicator was temperature increases up to +15K. Some interesting graphics on sea ice extents, too...
Early record, late record
10 days ago I posted a blog post called Mad max. The title - referring to a very early maximum sea ice extent - ended with a question mark, because it was far from sure whether the preliminary max reached on February 15th would remain standing. This is because of the oscillatory nature of the f...
A couple of graphics I don't often see here but might be relevant to the discussion: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php and http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php parameter ice convergence, are Arctic Ocean...
Early record, late record
10 days ago I posted a blog post called Mad max. The title - referring to a very early maximum sea ice extent - ended with a question mark, because it was far from sure whether the preliminary max reached on February 15th would remain standing. This is because of the oscillatory nature of the f...
With the AO switching to positive after a long negative period, the cyclonic activity and bouy chart information, it looks like there will be a short-lived 'Fram Flush', pushing the sea ice southwards for it to disperse and melt. This should accelerate the melt for a bit. How much would depend on the duration of the event and the strength of the winds and currents.
For this reason i suspect 2014's minumum will be a little later and a little lower than 2013's, though I have given up on the nid range of my June prediction...
ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
I suspect the media are wise to the fact that they can't link this to a hypothetical 'alarm', since SLR levels aren't sufficiently Diluvian. In addition, the story needs a better graphic representation to grab attention, eg, a polar bear falling off the top...
Jakobshavn calves a(nother) big one
Greenland glacier guardian Espen Olsen informed us a couple of days ago on the Forum that Jakobshavn Isbræ - Greenland's fastest glacier draining 6.5 % of the Greenland ice sheet - has had another big bite taken out of its southern branch recently. Espen made this animation to show the differenc...
ggelsrink; 23 times more potent, but atmospheric lifespan only 8-11 years, compared to much much longer for CO2. So you're right.
Wally Broecker speculated that the Laurentide event might have been connected to a mega-huge clathrate release from a Norwegian shelf collapse, but has since expressed doubt on this hypothesis. Methane is a contributor, 'short term'. Problem seems to be if methane increases rapidly (orders of magnitude) after a 'tipping point', either through sub-ocean clathrates or permafrost melt-out, it results in a short, rapid burst of extra heating, which could then start another tipping point, such as the melt-out of the GIS; so it's more of a 'disaster scenario' than the more subtle, more damaging & more persistent CO2 warming. Think in terms of timescales - how soon can we expect uncontrolled feedbacks?
And the wind cries methane
We return with some more info from the land of unknown, the land that is very important for our own land, but of which we do not seem to want to know more, as we are strangely comfortable with the unknown. I'm talking about methane, of course, the potent greenhouse gas of which enormous quantit...
Two thoughts:
Saw a recent paper (then lost it) which linked AMOC and Greenland, but not sure whether it linked it with temperatures, SMB or Glaciers... Can anyone find it? Saw another paper drawing attention to considerable increases in Arctic water export via the Fram Strait, both very recent. Question: if AMOC is weakening, reducing heat to the Northern Oceans, and ABW export increasing, does this suggest the possibility that Greenland temperatures may show a slower trend on a decadal scale?
Point 2. Understand the problem of concern trolling completely, but worried that there is a danger of assuming that someone who is not a scientist and expresses uncertainty over the science is ipso facto a concern troll. Sometimes genuine people really do want help understanding the science. IMO it's not in the best interests of those who do understand to isolate those who don't, because the latter will end up being another spice in the curry recipe...
Freezing season 2013/2014 open thread 1
Here's a first open thread for this freezing season, which will be followed by monthly instalments. I apologize yet again for having been so inactive on the blog. I'm the kind of person who shuts off certain activities when being too busy with momentarily higher-priority stuff, but with the exte...
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