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Gavin Cawley
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My prediction of 4.1 was the median of the SEARCH predictions. I suspect the actual September minimum will be a little lower than this statistical prediction (which is based purely on the September mean in previous years), but it is likely to be higher than the September 2012 mean because of "regression to the mean". The 2012 event was well in the lower tail of sensible statistical predictions (that had previously worked well), and it is unlikely that the various physical processes will all be lined up in the same direction as they were last year.
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Jul 3, 2013