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Looking back at past GCC articles it appears that JCI was getting into batteries (AGM) for the mild hybrid 48 volt market. I wonder if that is not working out the way they had hoped? With the threat to the fuel efficiency standards there may not be the demand they expected. Personally, I've been skeptical about the mild hybrids and even the hybrids. Why not go straight to full BEV's and PHEV's where there can be substantial effect. It has already been demonstrated that these vehicles can be built and they are only going to get better and more efficient over time.
I thought these e-power vehicles would sacrifice performance, but apparently not so bad. I suppose then that the downside to explain why only 40% adoption rate must be the purchase price. I'd suppose they must have to have pretty robust high output battery or maybe a capacitor and that could elevate the price of the vehicle. All in all it looks like a simple sort of vehicle that will get the public used to electric vehicles. (Previous post says 100,000 e-notes sold in Japan)
HD I intend to conduct a few experiments, however, up until now I haven't gotten around to it and like you, as a non smoker my lungs aren't really up to it. Just about every time I go out around the city here I see a Tesla or two, but other models are very rare. For that reason I'm quite surprised by the figure of 8%. The F150 is a very popular family vehicle in this part of the world so it doesn't appear to me that the costs of gasoline is a significant consideration for many when purchasing a vehicle.
EP I'm actually just thinking hypothetically about going offgrid. I live in an inner city neighborhood and I don't even know if that is allowed, although , simply running an extension cord across the fence to the neighbors outdoor outlet, to charge up my batteries would be an even better and more cost effective back-up than a fuel cell or other sort of gas generator. Alternatives to burning gas for heat might include some sort of geothermal scheme or super insulation but I don't know much about that. Maybe longer term solar will get so inexpensive it will make sense to generate hydrogen for storage in caverns and distribution through the gas system. Anyways it's good to see that Harvey D is back. With the recent legalization of cannabis, I thought we'd lost him forever.
Storage batteries that last 5000 cycles or more could even be viable for behind the meter applications at a cost of $300 - 400/kwh (6-8 cents per kwh cycle). Even though the energy charge on my current electrical bill is around 6 cents per kwh, all the other fixed and variable charges bring the bill close to 20 cents per kwh.
In my off grid world of 2030 I'll have 5-7 kw of solar panels + perhaps 15 kwh of battery storage but I'll still need a backup power supply which will be a fuel cell or gas turbine generator integrated with my gas burning furnace. I don't think the backup generator would need to be much bigger than 3 kw. Given the amount of information available nowadays I'm sure the system would be able to anticipate periods of low solar production and keep the batteries topped up from the backup. Since I'll also have an electric car I'll have an additional 60 kwh that I can drive to the nearest charging station to top up and supply my house in emergency situations. It would make more sense to stay connected to the grid but it will be too expensive. A lot like public transit where you have under-utilized infrastructure. On a macro scale the storage requirements could be something similar, about 2-3 X the renewable generating capacity but you are still going to have to burn some fossil fuels or maybe hydrogen if it can be produced at a reasonable cost. I'd venture to guess that with 7 KW of solar panels and 15 KW of storage I could probably meet about 80% of my electricity needs (including mobility) from renewable electricity. Note I hadn't been able to sign on via typepad for a few weeks but that appears to have been remedied so if others have been experiencing the same problems they should try again and not let the poet have the whole echo chamber to himself.
It seems like they have been posting pictures of the I.D Buzz for years now. I don't understand why they just don't go out and build a few thousand which they can probably sell quite easily at any price to baby boomers who are nostalgic for the old camper vans ( I've seen circa 1980's restored vans listed for $40k+ on kijiji). This suggests to me there is a market out thee that isn't terribly concerned about price. Tesla would probably build something similar if they weren't so busy building m3's, semi's, grid storage, solar roofs while at the same time staying out of jail and fighting defamation suits.
Five years ago, anyone who predicted that oil consumption would peak in the early 2020's was dismissed as a foolish and out-of-touch environmentalist. Today, apparently serious and presumably conservative financial institutions like DNV GL predict oil consumption will peak within 5 years. Statements like these really show the pace of change is accelerating (even when it has been delayed considerably with depressed oil prices for past 2-3 years).
This sounds like something significant and yet it doesn't evoke any reaction on this site? One thousand cycles with 75% degradation should be adequate for many applications including mobility. Maybe its cost or maybe followers of battery technology have become so jaded that they need to see something commercially ready and completely spec'd before they'll show any real interest. Could it be that the most promising research is going on in private?
How much surplus renewable energy can you get? Even if you have dedicated solar and wind farms that that produce electricity at different times during the day you are unlikely to have electricity for much more than 50% of the time. In reality there would be overlap so even with dedicated sources the utilization rate of the electrolyzer would be less than 50%. If you are relying on surpluses from the grid then you have to compete with other load shifting methods like pump storage, battery storage, ice storage etc. There may be some free electricity today, but how long will that last? To make this work at any sort of significant scale, if the plant is to be reliant on cheap electricity, I expect that the capital and operational costs of the plant will need to be low enough to be cost effective at a fairly low utilization rate.
4500 cycles is an impressive number, but I find myself wondering whether you could not achieve the same results by building a a temperature controlled battery compartment (pack)? I also expect an energy cost to maintaining the temperatures at optimal using this method could be fairly substantial? There must be some BEV's currently being operated in moderate climates where the battery temperature is always near optimal and I wonder if their battery degradation in similar to what is reported in this study. 280 k miles over 4500 cycles equates to 62 miles per cycle or a 20 kwh battery pack. Most packs for BEV's will be 40+ so there would potentially be way more miles of life than the rest of the car is capable if it is built to today's standards.
Say what you want about the North American oil and gas industry, but its hard not to be impressed by its ability to innovate and improve on production costs using technology over the past few decades. I often wonder how long it would take to develop affordable EV's and other alternative mobility solutions if all the capital and expertise applied to o&g production were redirected?
If you have enough storage in the system, I'd expect that would be adequate to respond to short term spikes in demand while, weather forecasting and demand analysis could be used to anticipate shortfalls from renewable sources on a longer term basis. If you have a forecast for a period of overcast weather it should be fairly easy to calculate the solar shortfall and use the FF reserve plants to charge up the batteries and/ or top up the grid. Not sure peaker plants will be required.
I expect U.S and China will reach an agreement protecting intellectual property about the same time as roles will be reversed and it will be the west that wants to copy from the Chinese especially wrt to EV technology.
US oil production rose above 10 mbpd in February 2018 and now has reached over 10.7 mbpd at the end of May for an increase of 700,000 bpd which is more than the increased capacity of the TMPL. Gasoline produced from oilsands may take more energy to produce , but if it is being used in highly efficient Chinese/ Japanese hybrids as opposed to American trucks or SUV's doesn't that more than balance things off? Personally, I think the government's plan to buy the pipeline is questionable on economic grounds because of great uncertainty how the markets for oil will unfold in the future, but as long as there continues to be a demand for oil, why shouldn't Canada be able to participate just as Norway does? Note that oil production in America nearly doubled under the Obama administration. If he was truly trying to do something about climate change shouldn't he have done more to suppress the rise in production?
I'm more concerned about all the F150's you see weaving in and out of traffic at high speeds if their stopping distance is no better than a model 3.
The market for diesel powered passenger vehicles appears to be collapsing. I'd expect it to accelerate. I wonder how that might affect the refining industry?
It appears to me that a large segment of consumers are going to purchase as big and as versatile a vehicle as they can afford without much regard for the carbon footprint so unless that attitude changes, the FCEV powered by solar generated hydrogen may be the best option for personal vehicles in a low carbon world. EV's may be a better solution for bus's, delivery and freight moving vehicles if the claims about the Tesla semi are anywhere's near accurate.
I'd pretty much given up on CCS, but now as the poet points out it may have new life with the Allam cycle. Good lessen not to dismiss any technology too soon.
With this series hybrid type of architecture you'd think you could very easily adapt the power generation and battery storage configurations if fuel cells and or batteries become more competitive. If they were able to sell 100,000 E-Notes in less than a year then it must be able to meet the performance needs of a fairly substantial segment of the market.
According to the NRC (natural resources canada) website, the combined fuel economy for the rx450h is 7.9 l/100km, while the RX350 L gets 11.1 l/100 km. Between 25 and 30% better fuel economy for same sized engines. Over 300,000 km life the hybrid would burn 9-10,000 fewer liters, which could translate to $12 -14,000 in Canada , which is way more than the premium you pay for hybrid drive train. The power output is probably 37 kw. The battery capacities in the Toyota hybrids are typically around 2 kwh or less.
If (or when) Exxon's researchers come to the same conclusion as Tony Seba will Exxon make it public before they began divesting of so called "stranded assets"? I doubt they will be in any great hurry to make unnecessary predictions that could negatively affect their businesses or secret strategies. I don't blame Exxon and the other big oilco's from publishing the most optimistic scenarios from their perspective because what would be the advantage in doing otherwise? My guess is that BEV's and PHEV's will be adequate in terms of price and range for 20 % of the market long before 2040, and if they are adequate for 20% then they should be adequate for 80% of the applications, and therefore if there truly is an urgency to reduce CO2 emissions then governments will be strongly compelled to implement policies and regulations that encourage the adaption of zero and low CO2 emission mobility. Some of the more freedom-loving parts of the world will be more resistant to change, but that seems like futility to me.
I'd imagine a model like the FAW Out could be popular, but I doubt whether you'd see many honkeys in a Hongqi.
Unless the owners of the trucks are getting caught exceeding emission standards and being forced to fix the problem at their own expense, I'm not sure many would want it to come to light that the trucks are failing the emissions test. Which leads me to wonder who is behind the class action?
These are impressive fuel efficiency numbers for a full size truck, but I suspect the net consequence will be that more sedan buyers will see this as a viable option that gives them the added utility of towing and hauling. I wonder how much they cost though and I wonder about their ability to meet emission standards when VW and many others have failed.