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Geo Hernandez
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" current avatar is a picture of the Earth seen looking down from the pole." My desktop background is that of an ice free Arctic.
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2011 on 2011 Slush Puppie Animation at Arctic Sea Ice
Is this 'flash melt' likely to reccur next year? Does it give any hint as to when Arctic will become ice free?
Toggle Commented Aug 23, 2011 on 2011 Slush Puppie Animation at Arctic Sea Ice
"Everyone doubts the models. Denialists doubt the models. Now Arctic Sea Ice Blog forum memembers doubt the models." Those models cannot take every positive feedback loop into account. At this point, in the death spiral, good intuition based on a sufficient amount of knowledge is probably every bit as accurate as models. I predict that models will be dead on when the last ice cube sized piece of ice is found bobbing up and down in the 35F+ ocean. :-)
Rich and Mike Island: "...since the big decline in 2005-07 and the pause since hasn't been explained." The pause may be explained by a decline in solar insolation which started dropping steeply in 2002 and seems to have bottomed out at the moment. If solar insolation were filtered out, the 'flatness' or 'pause' since 2002+ would not have occurred. This would apply even more to 2010 and our current La Niña, which seems to be the warmest one so far. I don't know how much a temperature change that would have made (.1C?) but there would have been more melting. Another issue to take into consideration is the 2007 La Niña. Had the El Niños that started in 2002 continued past 2007 then the drastic ice melt that year would have been even worse. The recovery would have been even less in subsequent years. Put reduced solar insolation and a La Nina together and what do you get???
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Aug 5, 2011