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Methane also has the ability to get to the stratosphere, so it's conversion to CO2 and H2O has other effects on feedbacks, namely clouds. I don't dismiss methane's role as an important greenhouse gas, but I don't see evidence of it ever having a role as some people claim during ice age times. I think there were events of bolide impacts releasing large amounts of methane in the past, but that's just speculation.
Toggle Commented Nov 29, 2013 on And the wind cries methane at Arctic Sea Ice
Methane is a gas and gases taught us the Periodic Table of elements. The capacity of methane to behave as a greenhouse gas can be measured very accurately, just like CO2. It's conversion to CO2 can't be accurately measured. The amount of methane in past atmospheres can be accurately measured. Methane is simply one of the ways the Earth gets rid of carbon, so go figure! Is it possible for the Earth to give up so much carbon during a short and quick warming spell, I'd say yes, but it is not probable. Regardless, when you find yourself going too fast, you slow the hell down. You don't test the planet you need to survive on to it's limits taking the human race and all other life forms to such extremes, because it's insane.
Toggle Commented Nov 29, 2013 on And the wind cries methane at Arctic Sea Ice
Fwmbrown, that seems about right in my opinion, but I've never been in a lab measuring it, so is it 1 or 5? Atmospheric samples from the past have had time to change ppb methane to ppm CO2. My impression is methane isn't that much of a problem, but I don't want to bet the future of the human race, nor all those fine animals living on my present day Earth, based on that impression. When we send people out to space and they say "Houston, we have a problem", we fix it. When our planet is telling us there is a problem, we don't fix it, even when there are obvious options. We have Armies on our planet that can stand down, stop the wars and concentrate on fixing our Earth. We can "weld" ice together using liquid nitrogen or figure out a smarter way to prevent ASI leaving the Arctic. What we need is one government with territory up there to turn it's ass around and make a stand.
Toggle Commented Nov 28, 2013 on And the wind cries methane at Arctic Sea Ice
One of the problems I've noticed is the perception of scale and longevity. I've seen numbers all over the board about the greenhouse effect of methane. Is it 20 or 100 times more times than CO2 and why compare ppb to ppm as if they are equal and not a thousand times different? The thing that will eventually melt the ice sheets and flood our coastal cities is CO2. Methane is a problem, because it will live in the atmosphere for a long time, but I don't see evidence of past methane problems during periods warmer than today. Large facilities like nuke and coal plants need plenty of water to cool themselves during off peak times, so take a look at them during the morning or at night. Water will not stay in the atmosphere very long and CO2 and methane will. My point is they are all emissions and I don't want any of them, but I can accept the water, because it won't be around for a long period of time and it's useful as rain.
Toggle Commented Nov 28, 2013 on And the wind cries methane at Arctic Sea Ice
Borrowing it from my favorite coffee. Arctic Sea Ice - Good to the last drip
Toggle Commented Jan 30, 2013 on Slogan contest at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim Hunt What I've been doing during this refreeze is following navy charts of sea ice thickness and drift. First I noticed large amounts of thick sea ice leaving through the Fram Staits. This is the first year I've given this much attention to a refreeze, so I've check the limited archives for comparisons. This may just be my impression, because I was following it rather continuously, but it looked like the supply of thick sea ice was exhausted and a large "California-size" area of thin half meter sea ice developed north of Greenland. I've also noticed the extent of 2 meter sea ice isn't what it was 2 years ago. That's to be expected after a record minimum, but it brings in the question of the quality of the thicker sea ice. Is that remaining thick sea ice like the low salinity sea ice of the old days, or is it rotten high salinity sea ice piled up against the CAA? The difference can mean decades of difference in an ice free arctic.
Toggle Commented Dec 27, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
I don't know if you would call this winter weirdness, but I've never seen it before. This is the first year I've paid close attention to a refreeze. I noticed a lot of multi-year thick ice leaving Fram. Then for over a month, there was this large area of very thin sea ice north of Greenland. That area normally had thick sea ice. I've looked in the archives of sea ice thickness at this time of year and I can't find it happening in the past. I haven't had a chance to read all the comments since September. Has anyone noticed that?
Toggle Commented Dec 26, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
I don't know how to post a YouTube link on here, but............ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qswm7lHp7oY
Toggle Commented Dec 26, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
To all. May God bless you and I mean it from my heart. Houstan, we have a problem that the world isn't solving. Can we go forward with the grace that God will give us or fail in the process? I don't know. There is nothing wrong with love solving a problem and we have a big time problem. We've destroyed this world for centuries and it's our fault. I didn't want to do it, but I'm the blame and the people before me. I ask how can I fix it? I know I don't want to leave this planet as a legacy (to my children....................) I'm far more responsible than that.
Toggle Commented Dec 25, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
Comrad, I hear what you are saying. The problem with individuals and state is individuals can't sue the state. How can we prove we are making drastic changes to our planet in decades that took hundreds of thousands of years in the past? I mentioned people that I'm concerned about, but there are also species we haven't even discovered. All are an asset and something to cherish. I hear people saying the world has to cut back on energy or do that carbon credit thing. I want cheap energy for the people and support Thorium MSR research. I want a nuclear reactor that can't meltdown and doesn't support making nuclear weapons from it's products. Perhaps the world can cooperate and develop that 50 year old technology for the benefit of mankind.
Toggle Commented Dec 25, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, I want to thank you for showing the shortcomings of the IPCC report. Thank you as well, about your concern when Sandy hit. I agree our scientists are too conservative about global warming. It's not ice I'm concerned about, but people. I've spent over a decade discussing issues with Denialistas and I've learn a few things in the process. When they brought up subjects about the past climate, and I didnit know about it, I studied it. The past climate or paleoclimatolgy is very different than our present world. There were major events, like North and South America connecting aroung 2.5 million years ago that changed thermohaline circulation. The Gulf Stream changed and the trans-equatoralial current changed. Before that was South America disconnecting from Antarctica and a circum-polar current created. Around that time was CO2 removed by the creation of the Himalayas. Those were major events and to compare the Earth as today to those times is apples to oranges. Neven, what I care about is I've leave 6 children on this planet and many grandchildren. I don't want them having problems and I see problems in the future. Can we get the scientists on our side? Can we even have the grace to walk out of this Earth and know we tried?
Toggle Commented Dec 25, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
From what I know of the internet, more people read what is written than participate in a discussion or debate. If you aren't a Denialista, then you're just going to get an argument around those WUWT types, so even calling it a discussion is being polite. Whenever someone like that speaks about convincing them, I make it clear I'm not interested in convincing them. My purpose is to voice the alternative opinion so someone reading what is said isn't just getting only the Denialista's side. I understand why people don't want to waste time talking to the hardheads and that's why I just use what they say to instruct others by refuting them. I started off on Q&A sites and quickly learned to find out information, even if I had very little knowledge of the subject. I became involved with climate change on political sites, which can be anywhere on the political spectrum. I never visited a blog and used primary sources to make my cases. I noticed blogs in the images I posted, so I became aware of them, but avoided them to form my independent opinions and strategy. I've had people tell me they are paid to spread misinfomation on the internet and that's why public opinion is what it is. The public are usually getting the Denialista's side. This was my first visit to a blog, meaning I actually read the comments and didn't just use a chart or some image. I've checked the sources for images, so I'm aware of the reputation of blogs, be it good or bad. WUWT is about as much crap as someone can stuff in the subject of climate change. I'd like to see a hundred people a day go on there and say that doesn't make sense because of this, but it isn't wise to waste too much time there for most people. Some people can stay focused and handle a flock of trolls making ad hom attacks. Neven has an excellent site for information on arctic sea ice and weather. I like the articles related to climate change and the glacier blog. If the best thing I can do is focus the larger population to study correct science, I have to spend some time where the larger population is and direct them to the sites that deal with science. I've recommended both Neven's and the glacier blog to people interested in those subjects.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness at Arctic Sea Ice
This one definitely goes into the weird category. Sandy is expected to still be at hurricane strength when it hits Delaware and may be Cat 2 before landfall around Cape May, NJ. I'm not aware of any history of Delaware being hit by a hurricane that was still classified as one. Since we've had rain throughout the mid-Atlantic and in Pennsylvania before Sandy, I expect large power outages and trees uprooted by being water soaked, though the loss of leaves will help. The good thing is this path spares some more populated areas, like NYC. The path is about 5 miles north of me and I hope it goes south a little, because I live near where the state has less population. Even 10 miles could make a difference for some people and the Delmarva Peninsula should slow it down some before it gets near Baltimore. The hurricane could thread the needle through here and avoid areas with large populations. It's about 19 hours before Sandy will be here and if I have electricity in the next few days, that will even be more weird than the hurricane.
Toggle Commented Oct 29, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness at Arctic Sea Ice
Of course WUWT is BS, but if you ask AGW supporters who is winning the PR on the debate, the Denalistas are winning. I think waiting until we are suffering enough consequences from AGW that it convinces people is a waste of time. From what I've seen of the evidence, people are sometimes paid to spread this misinformation. It isn't just the blogs, it's political discussion sites. WUWT has been spreading propaganda for around 6 years, the site is well visited and the Denialistas are unchallenged for the most part. What the Denialistas need are large amounts of people refuting their propaganda with facts, even if it's just a post a day. It isn't like it's hard to find the errors to correct. Getting back to the hurricane, it's going to be devastating in this mid-Atlantic region, because no one has listened for years how much damage another hurricane like Hazel will do. The beaches have been really built up since then.
Toggle Commented Oct 28, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness at Arctic Sea Ice
Climate-changing methane 'rapidly destabilizing' off East Coast, study finds Source [shortened the link, N.] Speaking of weird, I was looking at my arctic sea ice graphs folder, before I checked on this site and when I did, I discovered Neven made this thread posting the same things I thought were odd. The first two images Neven posted were things I thought were weird, but the third image was a hurricane aimed at my front door. I was so busy arguing with Denialistas on WUWT, that I wasn't checking the news. Speaking of weird, the first post I posted on this site was lost in cyber space and it was an appeal to scientists to stand up and refute the Denialistas. I'm asking Scientist or anyone concerned about their environment to go to contrarian sites and refute the nonsense.
Toggle Commented Oct 27, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness at Arctic Sea Ice
I was researching the NOAA site for GISP2 data to do the same and there are recent ice cores, because I found a link comparing them. I noticed how much the measurements varied for a given year and they were still in O18 measurements. I didn't figure it was worth my time to convert all that data for one Denialista. Here is a NOAA list of all ice core data: http://hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/paleox/f?p=517:1:763859100492972:::APP:PROXYDATASETLIST:7: You can easily find a link to the comparison I mentioned on the NOAA site and cross reference with the top link to get the full report of the ice cores in question. From what I saw, you'd have to average about 6 of them to get a good average. Greenland has plenty of sites to get modern temperature data from ice cores, but at some point they even have instrumental measurements from the research going on there. The GISP2 site was chosen for past and not modern data. I have seen GISP2 charts with modern temperatures added and they seem to be consistent, but I'm not sure how they obtained the modern data. If I remember right, GISP2 starts at 95 years BP and BP is 1950. ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/isotopes/gisp2_temp_accum_alley2000.txt
The ocean water that forms the deep water current comes from the Gulf Stream and isn't dependent on salt from arctic sea ice. It just has to cool. The salinity increases with evaporation and the Atlantic has the most salinity. That's Gulf Stream water forms a deep current that joins the deep antarctic circumpolar current by deep water formations west and east of Greenland. It has high salinity and creates a deep water current by cooling. Something went on in that area with Baffin Bay having such high temperatures, Nares and Frame pumping out sea ice, Greenland melting and the salinity changes of the Arctic Ocean going up. Look how the surface salinity of the "east" arctic changed in two years! This first map doesn't show the deep circumpolar current going around Antarcitica, but it does. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CBXjWyxLIHQ/TcW_5G4B9xI/AAAAAAAAAAU/Kw08qFIEzP0/s1600/warming+2.png http://www.theresilientearth.com/files/images/1000px-Conveyor_belt.svg.png The Aussies detected a decrease in speed and salinity of the deep circumpolar current. It could be a push/pull kind of thing where the failed supply of a deep water current resulted in the deep circumpolar current borrowing some fresher water. I'm suggesting the cause of changes in the deep circumpolar current could be at the other pole and not because of changes in antarcitic ice. On the other tangent, I've been watching ENSO to predict how it may affect the refreeze and next year's ASI melt. El Nino was named because the Humboldt current stopped upwelling off the coast, the ocean warmed, good fishing stopped and the Peruvians switched to farming because of the good rains. This is just speculation, but could a speed up in antarctic circumpolar winds speed up the upper circumpolar current and cool the eastern Pacific changing ENSO to a more La Nina to neutral prone pattern? If that was the case and El Nino doesn't develop, I expect PDO to follow along and remain in it's negative phase. With no major shift in climate patterns, the refreeze could be similar to this year's maximum, being larger than the Northern Hemisphere sea ice maximum of 2011, but this year's maximum had less true arctic sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. The beginning of the 2012 melt was the latest it's been for area stats and 22 days later than 2011. The stats get the headlines, but they don't truly reflect the condition of the arctic sea ice. The arctic storm didn't just take a large chuck of sea ice away from the main body, it also took a chuck of MYI with it. Since the storm, my attention has been focused on the drift, thickness, SST and salinity, but specifically how it sets the stage for MYI melt next season. I'm particularly concerned about the CAA leaking more MYI and melting it.
Try reading the end of this thread and maybe you will see a connection with the arctic sea ice! Read what is said about the Australians saying they detected a drop in salinity and a slowdown in the deep antarctic circumpolar current, which partially starts in Baffin Bay! Read what is said about El Nino stalling and they don't know why, because it hasn't happened before! An El Nino forecast should interest anyone interested in arctic sea ice, I know I've been watching it. Baffin Bay is part of the arctic sea ice, so if something changed there related to changes in arctic sea ice, it is relevant. I don't know where you come up with the idea that losing salinity from arctic sea ice drives thermohaline circulation. Deep currents are also part of thermohaline circulaton and they aren't driven by the wind.
The first thing that popped into my mind when I read about the Austrailians was it was warm in Baffin Bay and Greenland had a lot of runoff. That area in Baffin Bay is part of the deep water formation that feeds the deep circumpolar current. When I heard about El Nino stalling, I thought about the Humboldt Current which comes from the circumpolar current and gets disrupted by El Nino. I think the Humboldt Current is the upper circumpolar current. I don't see a connection with antarctic ice and the deep circumpolar current which slowed. There could be a connection between the upper circumpolar current speeding up with the circumpolar wind. That would change SSTs off of western South America.
I suggest he logs in with Facebook, even if he has to start an account with them. Hopefully he can go to followers and change the password or add one on his account here to log in using his email address.
idunno WUWT doesn't like that word denialist, even when you are using it in a general way, but calling me a warmist or warmista to my face is acceptable. I tried to make the point that a rapid refreeze traps heat, but I couldn't get a taker.
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2012 on Record dominoes 12: CT SIA anomaly at Arctic Sea Ice
Twemoran I was signing in with Facebook, but the comment box wouldn't come up. I discovered my account by clicking Followers, set a password and now can use TypePad directly with my email address. It worked for me without even signing out. I never have been able to find good weather data for the antarctic, but I have noticed major shifts in CT area around the maximum, which I figured were weather related, such as a couple hundred thousand km over a couple of days. From what I recall, the latest trends for the antarctic sea ice have been once the melt approaches the average, it follows the melting average rather closely.
Toggle Commented Oct 18, 2012 on Record dominoes 12: CT SIA anomaly at Arctic Sea Ice
Wipneus I've been following that too, but there had to be someone paying attention to refreeze all these years and I know I wasn't. When you are paying attention, you notice things like weather and also notice how things change over time. I'll bet if you check, people independently decided to observe this refreeze.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2012 on Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice
Werther or anyone else who wants to listen I'm old and worn out. I only picked that avatar, because I used a Facebook account to get on this site and that avatar was the best I had to offer. I'm a man, once a Marine and always one, but I had six children and even had four grandchildren last year in a very short period of time. Well, we cheated because one of my twin daughters had twin daughters. I have a science background in Chemistry, like the oldest son of my Brady Bunch. I also have a background as a warrior. Maybe as a Sputnik child, I grew up thinking someone with a white hat would rescue me. The point I'm trying to make is, I don't think it's insane to fight against superior odds, where sound judgment says you are going to lose. I don't think I'm unique by being that way and somebody put to the test will do the same. The human race is at war, whether people know it or not. Perhaps a trumpet will sound next year to alarm the youth and give an old warrior some rest. Excuse my French, but we are getting our asses kicked by the Earth and politically. The Denialistas own this hour. What does this have to do with arctic sea ice or predictions about it becoming ice free? I guess it's all or nothing, depending on how you look at it. I can only hope for sanity amongst nations who think they own the arctic. I fault the United States, Canada, Russia and Denmark for their guttonous behavior. We can only hope the equation for an ice free arctic is changed before arctic sea ice reaches zero. It's going to take a lot more than zero emissions to put this world back to what it was, when I was born. This Earth has a memory locked away somewhere, like an elephant, and we need to harness the feedbacks, before they get totally out of our control. I think we are only going to get one shot to repair the damage and I think dying while tryijng in battle against impossible odds is better than sitting on our asses and doing nothing.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2012 on Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice
Werther, Wipneus or Anyone I've followed the arctic sea ice for many years, but the truth is, I ignored the arctic once it was at a minimum. I knew before this minimum or discovering this site, I'd be following the refreeze and I noticed others on this site said the same. My question is, have others had such refreeze interests in the past? Observation is always the first rule of scientific investigation. Sifting through tons of data aren't going to clue me to the changes a wise observer would have seen. Somewhere in this world, there has to be the "Super Geeks" (I'm not name calling, we need you now), who watched sea ice through thick and thin, max and min. Maybe, they are like me and avoided blogs, which tend to promote a single opinion, be it right or wrong, with their group think, but whatever, people somewhere had to follow the arctic sea ice refreeze and learn from the experience. The fact is, I tended to lose interest and focused my attention on the antarctic during arctic refreeze. I never dreamed I live to see the day that arctic sea ice would be gone.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2012 on Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice