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Ghoti Of Lod
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John, Have you never read The Onion, The Beaverton, or the Daily Mash?
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2016 on Mad Max 2: The Arctic Warrior at Arctic Sea Ice
The movies for Obuoy 13 14 15 are interesting at this point because you can see the people setting them up. Gives a bit of perspective of the size of the yellow bits we see from the camera the rest of the time. Obuoy 13 movie includes the ice breaker that carried everything there and the people away.
Toggle Commented Oct 5, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Except that the passage through Mclure Strait was open this year. M/V Andros completed both west to east and east to west passages this summer. The East to west used the McLure route. All 7 routes through the NW passage were completed this summer. The Northwest passage is open reliably enough that there are commercial tourist cruises through it every summer.
Toggle Commented Oct 2, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
JC: "To do work on the ice you want the ice to be flat, with no/few leads, and little/no melt ponds." I often see descriptions of difficulties finding ice suitable to allow scientists off of ice breakers to do research in recent years. Seems to me then that ice research is often being done on ice that is probably not representative of the ice pack. It certainly means the sampling is not random and not suitable for statistical (or modeling?) extrapolation.
Toggle Commented Sep 29, 2015 on 2015 minimum overview, part 1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Isn't it odd that the temperatures below the ice are so far above -1.8C? This has to be rather fresh water. I presume that's why you suggest it might be river water. It also might be from surface water draining down the hole made for the thermistors which would mean it is a misleading artifact.
As Jim suggested the IMB detailed buoy pages now include webcam images and links to the latest. This is the link to the IMB 2015A photo:
Toggle Commented May 13, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Clearly the temperature sensor and thickness sensors aren't sufficient to really see what is going on. Seems unfortunate given how much time, effort, and money go into placing and maintaining these buoys. Look at the sudden 50cm jump in ice thickness shown by 2015A. Seems like if we really want to know what is going on they'll have to add under ice cameras to supplement the data.
Toggle Commented May 5, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
Well the measurements from active buoys in the area in question are all showing around 2m or less. For example:
Toggle Commented Apr 10, 2015 on PIOMAS April 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Wow! The uninformed making noise claiming the people who actually take the time and make the effort to read and understand the definitions of the various measurement systems are wrong. Of course deniers never let the facts intrude on their statements of "truth"
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2015 on Early record, late record at Arctic Sea Ice
Who needs melt ponds when you've got a million sq km of extra open water?
Toggle Commented Mar 6, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
Article in Skeptical Science by Jennifer Francis the introduces the evil twin of the RRR - the "Terribly Tenacious Trough" also see the published science behind the cute naming. where Francis introduces new ways to quantify the waviness of the jet stream. Chris you'll probably want to take the time to read this new one.
Toggle Commented Feb 21, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
On a positive note the restriction meant I watched the press conferences which included topics I'd never have chosen. As a result I learned new and interesting things I'd have missed. Plus there was one on the Greenland melt water situation which was eye-opening to me.
Clearly the AGU has a long way to go to "convey understanding clearly and accurately, both to decision makers and to the general public" They still refuse to make web streams freely available to the public. All 6 "virtual AGU" streams display: This entry is only available with a premium ticket. Please purchase one I find this particularly rude given that virtually all the AGU funding comes either directly or indirectly from public sources. The only streams freely available are for press conferences.
I'm struggling with the notion that the NAO or AO is a causal agent. To me they are more a means of describing large scale weather patterns than the cause of that weather. I suppose it is a chicken and egg sort of situation. We've read how the extremely persistent ridge was a prediction of models testing reduced Arctic ice conditions. We know how the ENSO ocean temperatures affect pressure patterns and the resulting weather. I also thought that a reason for the 3 month running mean being used for describing the state of the NAO was also an indication it is used as a more general description of large scale weather conditions rather than a short term driver of them. In any case it is interesting to read about the NAO being used to "predict" short term weather patterns.
The BBC article about Ben Nevis snowfields is being used to promote an incorrect notion that there is suddenly glaciation occurring. The article clearly states that snowfields surviving the summer are not new. "Ben Nevis and a few other peaks in the Scottish Highlands provide the most southerly refuge for some of these species which can only survive due to the altitude and presence of semi-permanent snow fields." In fact a quick check of Wikipedia indicates the summit observatory "which operated from 1883 to 1904, reported that snow survived on the north-east cliffs through more years than it vanished". So, no, this is not new but it is recently under study and so increases of snow in cold summers are being noted.
Toggle Commented Sep 7, 2014 on PIOMAS September 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris and Jim I also noted that Dr Zhang very clearly showed that his technique, though good at predicting 2012, was completely off for 2013. I'd say it doesn't account for the weather sufficiently.
Toggle Commented Apr 2, 2014 on Forecast me not at Arctic Sea Ice
I'd think that the data from 3611 active Argo floats probably is sufficient to compensate for the loss of some moored sensors.
Toggle Commented Jan 23, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I finally found the video on demand of Palmer's 15 minute AGU talk. Unfortunately you need to register to get access (I had registered for free at the time of the meetings). The talk was about how stochastic parameterization drastically improves the models so they actually reflect the regimes seen in nature. More relevant to the high pressure that's been blocking the western US for over a year is the Petouhkov paper on quasiresonant planetary waves.
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
This pattern seems reminiscent of the 4 lobe Lorenzian attractor that Tim Palmer discussed this year at the AGU fall meetings. I can't seem to find the reference but maybe someone else recalls it.
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
I've been hoping to see Argo floats north of Svaldbard but it seems extremely unlikely to happen. There are a bunch deployed in the Fram between 65 and 75 degrees N but those seem most likely to drift south rather than north into the increasingly unfrozen waters north of the Fram and Barants Sea.
I think buoy 2012M is positioned on that fast ice just southwest of the south end of the big piece that just broke off. The worldview images look like there's surface melting in that area.
Toggle Commented Jul 20, 2013 on Ice pack in full at Arctic Sea Ice
O-Buoy 8 went over this past Monday (morning eastern time). The image seemed to show broken ice and water runoff channel. Looked to me as if the chunk of ice it was on ridged up onto the chunk we had been viewing leaving the buoy more or less horizontal.
Yeah, given the ice is sloping and the imagery showed the webcam is on a separate piece of ice from the buoys in the view, the drainage troughs seen in the last couple of days are to be expected.
OBuoy 7 has had extensive melt ponding visible from the webcam this week. Surprising to me today is seeing that these melt ponds seem to be draining already. I didn't expect that so soon.
O-buoy 8 is finally providing data and webcam images from the Beaufort. Hurry and go look before there isn't anything to look at! O-Buoys are 2012L and 2012H. Looks like they may fall into the slush soon.