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Well I am becoming increasingly freaked! I have it in my head that low solar played a part in the last spate of record lows across the basin and any return of the synoptics driving them will certainly leave the basin in a mess! If the same processes that leads to the observed increase in northern blocking in the Atlantic,over winter through low solar, migrates north as the sun crosses over the equator then we may have a pattern of solar forcings for melt seasons? Low solar leaning toward HP dominance and high solar bringing more cloudy, and so cool, conditions? Of course it would be a background forcing with other events , like the WACCy snows of west Siberia last year? impacting the weathers locally. The recent papers looking at ocean ingress into the basin is also a worry when we look at the SST's of those waters in Fram and Bering. This is not 2012, we have weaker, younger,warmer ice and ocean entrances pouring ice melting heat into Chukchi/Beaufort and Barentsz/Kara. All we can do is pray we drop off the 'perfect melt storm' pathway before it's too late! Nothing so far this year has disabused me of the notion!
Toggle Commented May 13, 2018 on PIOMAS May 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
GrayWolfBG1 is now following Neven
Apr 8, 2018
I'd have to agree that we have already entered the age of the 'blue Ocean climate Disruption' as it does not demand a technical ice free ocean but a long period of open water throughout the basin as we saw last year. If this years ice is so weakened as we believe then this year will also be plagued with open water throughout the season. I fear the paid deniers will play games with a technical 'ice free' definition whilst Rome burns?
Toggle Commented Feb 19, 2017 on PIOMAS February 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
GrayWolfBG1 is now following The Typepad Team
Feb 19, 2017