Neven, hi, The sit is not as surprising as it seems. Summers in the Arctic have never been that anomalously warm. At least, not decisively when '07/'12/'13/'14/'16 and '17 are compared (2m temp is just one of the parameters). Apparently N Hemisphere circulation has shifted into a somewhat protective mode for the high Arctic. And some positive feedbacks (more snow cover, more clouds) may have kicked in. The reason this year is still near minimum is the ridiculously 'warm' winter season '16-'17. I'm waiting in awe whether next winter will once more provide proof of a new regime. Analogue to a slogan in a former American election: "It's winter power, stupid..."

Jim, hi, Saw that too, in my case on ECMWF. Still a week out, formation of 'dipole' starting on Sunday/Monday. ECMWF storm not that close to CAA, more ESS-CAB boundary. That could crush the pack in the Pacific sector.

He wouldn't, Bill. The first Elfstedentocht was organised nineteen years after his death.

Neil, hi, The only melt ponding I see on MODIS is now in the Southern CAA and around Pevek/Ostrov Wrangelya. There's still a way to go for this melting season to kick off. Even though 'winter power' was awful once more. The Arctic has a lot of tricks to pull...

Posting for the sake of old friendship… I haven’t done any work for months. In a way, I said all I had to say for a couple of years. I’m still watching though… Thanks Neven, for keeping us all informed. In March it looked like NASA had clipped my favourite means (the MODIS tiles) to study ice quality. But they came back. With some annoying re-aligning for me to get the new orientation in my CAD-format. I don’t feel like I’m going to do this as often as I used to. As for what I saw, enhanced in CAD and comparable to June ’16 and ’12, I support what John Bilsky wrote above. The whole Pacific side is in process of fragmentation, wind and current have easy grip. The ESS and Laptev look extremely vulnerable. There still is a 1,8 Mkm2 mesh-grid pack. Until ’16 that was a remarkably stable area, in August (!). And it used to remain stuck against the fast ice lining the CAA and Greenland. As it was in June ’16. But it is detached now, leaving a mean 200 km wide stretch of mobile, broken ice with lots of open water. Two parameters seem at least to be favouring the pack compared to the situation on 6th June ’16. One is the lack of melt ponding. The second is the better condition on the Atlantic rim. Whether that will be enough to prevent a dive well under the ’16 minimum remains to be seen.

I should have written "...off the charts in sense of lack of 'winter power'... Wayne, there's not much of a comparison to last year at all. Most years have a different character. First half of winter was much warmer than last year. Januari-March last year did most of the damage. So it is still open whether this year will be as bad or even worse. I wonder if there'll appear 'warm-core' anticyclones combined with SSW's. But first the train of entering Lows seems to continue.

Thanks, Neven, for continuing posting on PIOMAS. A slight sliver of hope that the worst odds on the coming 'black swan'-event won't be that bad. First week of Januari temp anomalies were not as bad as last winter. Nevertheless, the first half of winter season was off the charts in sense of 'winter power'.

Neven, good evening, I thank you very much for having shared this platform. For me, it was and still is a comfort to sense that I'm not alone. I had my own experience that there's a circle of interest and one of influence. I did have a lot of difficulty to make the difference. I have learned so much. Thanks and so long!

[IMG]http://i1036.photobucket.com/albums/a446/hanver1/1000Mb%20Temp%20ano%201504%20to%2015092016_zpsxmffxti9.jpg[/IMG] The current negative temop anomaly centered over the Eastern Central Ural Mountains is not as persistent as Arctic Amplification. It cannot be seen as a sort of compensation. Look at the NCEP/NCAR mean for last summer season. Most of the region that is now experiencing -10 dC anomalies had a +2-+3 dC summer. It is a temporary feature. Driven by weather. Arctic Amplification is not weather. It is a climatologic reality: [IMG]http://i1036.photobucket.com/albums/a446/hanver1/1000Mb%20Temp%20ano%200101%20to%2018112016_zps9zt2ppff.jpg[/IMG] The Siberian cold will pass. The AA will not. There’s not going to be a ‘new ice age’. Temporary cold, yes. It won’t last. GHG forcing is dominant now…..

And meanwhile, the shit seems to have hit the fan…

Illustrating sixty days of missing ‘winter power’. The 70% of time remaining will have to be quite harsh to compensate. If not, the Arctic is in a one way lane to the possible ‘black swan’-event. In fact, this two month exceptional anomalous period might already count for one such event….

In this discussion I’d like to point to the ‘reappearance’ of the ‘Kara Bulge’. Some 5 years ago I commented a lot on that feature. It is back.

PIOMAS is in for October. What is pictured closely follows what is obvious through other data. Lowest ever for 31 October.

When one with great interest in the geophysics of our planet is on this for over ten years, one starts to get some sense for the short term and chaotical variance of all processes. What is going on since 7 September has a direct relation to the structure-loss of the complete Arctic sea ice pack. It is mobile and dispersed. The open ocean waters in between, having a thin, sweeter top layer, is soon ready to support formation of nilas and guard fresh fallen snow against dissolving. The satellite sensors pick this up as extent growth. They did so in earlier years too, nothing new here except for the intensively broken up structure of the pack nowadays. This extent growth doesn’t tell us much about the real state of the ice nor about the nature of the coming winter season.

You're right, Wayne. Any ship with a strengthened bow and some motor power could cross the 'Laptev-arm' North of Frantsa Yosefa right up to the N Pole.

Lodger, hi, Good to hear from you! I’d suggest reading ‘Journey to Italy’, which has a nice, laid back sense, being a diary of an early tourist trip made by one who has the magic eye for the artistic side. On remaining multi year ice, your assumption of about 2 Mkm2 is quite accurate. I had day 233 in my CAD frame this morning. The remaining 1 Mkm2 ‘safe haven’ still shows the best concentration. But it has almost lost its former ‘mesh-structure’. Just under 200Kkm2 left, pressed against the entrance of Nares Strait in the Lincoln Sea. The cyclone, which centered about 335 km NNW of Ellesmere yesterday, has messed up the N of CAA part of the ‘safe haven’. With the help of Ascat and the 2015 ice age map, I suppose all of the 1 Mkm2 ‘safe haven’ is MYI 3-5 and more years old. Then there’s a neighbouring stretch, about 700Kkm2, reaching from Fram Strait, just along the Pole, up to the Beaufort sector on the latitude of McClintock Sound, which varies between 3 and 5 years old and is mostly in bad shape. The flawed and battered ‘arms’ in the direction of Wrangel Island are made up by 4-5 year old MYI in the process of elimination. I’d say it’s about 100Kkm2, however, there are lots of small particles floating free over the whole Bering sector. All of the ice in the direction of the Laptev Sea is FYI. This feature was protected through domination of light, counterclock-wise winds. All together, it’s a weak, almost terrible, situation. Given that the ’12 pack at minimum still had a large high concentration core (which isn’t that large now) and also considering the ’13 and ’14 lower melt years (which let more volume being spared), I think at minimum this year volume will again be near the lowest ever.

Picked up MODIS lurking after my holiday. Thanks for the update, Neven. It’s a complicated situation. There are similarities to ’13, but as I concluded before my holiday, there’s hardly any mesh-grid shaped structure left. Just a few 100K’s SW of the Pole direction Greenland. With that in mind, I agree with Wayne. In the ECMWF forecasts, Lows in the lower troposphere and in the upper level at 500Mb keep dominating Arctic weather. Summers ’13 and ’14 indicated that spread-out floes in the CAB have a good chance of survival. That’s why I think there’s not a top three minimum in the box, extent-wise. Even though there’s generally more heat around, other factors prohibit the CAB to really get into trouble. I agree with Fish that a possible crash is in preparation for ’17. Part of that would be another weak ‘winter power’ refreeze season.

I agree, Sam. Today day 175 I see little of the mesh-shaped grid leads/floes I once considered to be 'safe pack'.

MSG, I agree. Today's MODIS shows floe-minimizing lead formation even close to the NP. Still, it could work out similar to '13. But on a worse parallel because of less 'winter power' and a generally warmer biosphere...

Thanks, Neven, Your 'hands-on' approach on the blog fixes attention on the most eyecatching events in the Arctic. Whereas the Forum is much more opaque, specially for guests. Rob, you are right, the 215K open water is close to the 250K late July 2012. The main difference is that '12 had 3,5 Mkm2 broken floes right up into the CAB by that time. '16 has two months to fix that gap. Doesn't seem hard to do...

To contribute to Neven’s wonderful compilation, I’ve calculated the mean temp anomaly for the period 1 October – 25 March based on this CAD drawing: For the Arctic Ocean the calculation added up to a +4.2 dC anomaly. That might not sound as spectacular compared to the data that have been circling around the Blog and Forum during the last few months. But I did this FI at the end of ’13-’14, which produced IIRC a mean between +1 and +2 (which was pretty awesome in those days). My friends, +4.2 over such a large area and during six months is terrifying… I’ll put a larger version up on the Forum.

Relevant to this discussion on PIOMAS might be to point at actual temperatures as they happened this winter. I enhanced visibility on this NCEP/NCAR graph by colouring the range from 0 to -30dC in 5dC steps: Though the Beaufort Sea hasn't been the most remarkable anomalous region, there's big difference between -25dC mean and -15!

I have some time today, trying to follow your discussion here... For what its’ worth, while surfing on “Kelly fields Arctic” I hit upon this book: Breaking Ice for Arctic Oil: The Epic Voyage of the SS Manhattan through the NorthWest Passage By Ross Coen Whatever you may think of the purpose of this book, it provides some great insight on the state of the ice in 1969 in FI McClure Strait… Anyway, it doesn't seem to have any relation to the Kelly you guys mention...

Thanks, Neven, I know that you try to entertain us by pointing at the probability of rebounds… But I’m not sure that the past week was really more conducive to ice growth: Sunlight has reached a 100 miles N of Nordkapp, Norway. It has revealed the soon to pop up Mackenzie Polynia in the Beaufort Sea. Winter has had its best time. Its ‘power’ hasn’t been what it once used to be…