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A great animation. It really captures the essence of what needs to be conveyed. I do hope it gets wide circulation
Ice cube volume video
Andy Lee Robinson fired up his super computer to produce the video below, and during rendering composed the soundtrack to go with it: I think it's his best one so far.
@William
"as it receives less heat from the sun". Agreed.
"as it receives less heat from ....ocean currents". Hmmm....
"Additionally, the central Arctic Basin receives significant contributions of ice from other regions from ice transport." But so do other parts of the Arctic. In fact, all that this is saying is that the ice is on the move and, in that respect, doesn't make the Basin all that different.
Henry
September 2011 sea ice extent, looking ahead
The mean extent of Arctic sea ice for September 2011, calculated from the University of Bremen time series (website; technical paper), was 4.6 million km2. A Gompertz curve that I estimated last April based on Uni Bremen data for 1972 through 2010 gave a predicted September 2011 mean of ... 4.6 ...
Rob, many thanks for that. The article by Polyakov et al was useful too.
Henry
Final score: 2011 vs 2007
Now that I've called the minimum, it's time to have a look at the differences between the two years with the lowest minimums in all data sets. This post will be a potpourri of different factors. If we look at the six most important data sets - which IMHO are IJIS extent, NSIDC extent, Cryosphere...
@Artful Dodger: "Do not feed the trolls.
Got it in one. Couldn't agree more.
Henry
And now, a word for our sponsors
We are all equally responsible for the melting of the Arctic sea ice. But to paraphrase the pigs in Animal Farm: Some are more responsible than others. Some will do their utmost to make sure the greatest geophysical experiment of all time is conducted to the very end. They are doing everything i...
@Eli "...the pattern of the refreezing will be interesting.."
I read this site with great, but scientifically naive, interest. I am curious about the questions implicit in this comment. The questions I have are these: what happens at this point i.e. the refreezing? As the artic ocean seems to a whole lot warmer than it has been, won't there be a much quicker and steeper(?) loss of heat into the immediate atmosphere than before? Does this have implications for artic and circum-arctic weather?
Henry
Final score: 2011 vs 2007
Now that I've called the minimum, it's time to have a look at the differences between the two years with the lowest minimums in all data sets. This post will be a potpourri of different factors. If we look at the six most important data sets - which IMHO are IJIS extent, NSIDC extent, Cryosphere...
"what happens with the permafrost and methane clathrates in the medium to long run"?
Yes, that is a real worry.
And am I right in thinking that this season has seen a particular decline is shore-fast ice?
Henry
Final score: 2011 vs 2007
Now that I've called the minimum, it's time to have a look at the differences between the two years with the lowest minimums in all data sets. This post will be a potpourri of different factors. If we look at the six most important data sets - which IMHO are IJIS extent, NSIDC extent, Cryosphere...
H Barnard is now following J. Bradford DeLong
Sep 13, 2011
@Remko
But that's because their approach to such things as facts is somewhat along these lines:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSSGiA4f5cs
New area record
After a new volume record for the PIOMAS model, we now also have a new record in the Cryosphere Today data set. The 2011 trend line had been brushing very close to it a couple of times, going up again, but with a daily area decrease of 58,940 square km for September 6th it has gone below the 200...
@D
Personally, if I were betting I might go even steeper than the 15 year trend
I think the oil companies are also betting on this. Seriously depressing news (though not 'new' news):
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/unlocked-by-melting-icecaps-the-great-polar-oil-rush-has-begun-2349789.html
NSIDC Arctic sea ice news August 2011
NSIDC has just released its August analysis. Some interesting tidbits: Arctic sea ice near record lows Arctic sea ice extent averaged for August 2011 reached the second lowest level for the month in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record. Both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea route appea...
21 Sept IJIS extent 4,901,406 (an increase of 23,125 km2). Does that mean that curtain is falling?
SIE update 31: when all is over and done
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
H Barnard is now following Lotharsson
Sep 11, 2010
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Sep 10, 2010
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Sep 10, 2010
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