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Here's what that new cyclone looks like on an ECMWF chart product I find a lot easier to "read"; if my linking works, it should be here. It's deep, and hovering over the pole by Thursday, and stays there or thereabouts while filling slowly. I'd expect a substantial amount of ice being pushed south between Greenland and Svalbard, and a lot of warm air from Siberia whisked north. My gut feel is that sometime soon we're going to see all the measures resume a steep drop - possibly not to record territory - but the ice is so different it's impossible to tell. Another factor that may (or may not) be in play is the huge amount of smoke swirling around from fires in Siberia (on the Arctic Mosaic, look to the south of the Kara Sea). Must be a Stygian gloom for the population down there. And last, but not least: Tenney has a point, but I'm not sure there's any sort of reorganisation going on. It looks more like the Hadley cell is doing fine, but that to the north the atmosphere is becoming disorganised, with no clear patterns being established. But I'm no kind of expert on that...
Daily fix of... open ocean off Banks Island in the Beaufort Sea: It may be that my memory is terrible, but I don't recall seeing anything as large as that, as early in the melt in previous years.
Toggle Commented May 16, 2012 on IJIS is back! at Arctic Sea Ice
Bryan Walker's review of Climate Wars is here.
I'm picking a "double dip" minimum. We've had the avocado dip, but there's a little bowl of spicy salsa about to be served... ;-)
Don't know if anyone else has spotted it (and apologies if its old news), but the Petermann/Lockerby ice island has lost its head (MODIS), and a good sized chunk is rapidly drifting down Nares Strait.
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2010 on Race to Fram Strait 5 at Arctic Sea Ice
GoddardWatch 1/7/10: Looks like two people (one a working glaciologist) chose to provided Goddard with some solid information on his post about GRACE measurements of Antarctic ice mass, with predictably hilarious results. Start with this comment, in which Goddard reveals his credentials: I have a geology degree and worked many years as a geologist. I have studied glaciers for many years. I also have an engineering degree and have a good solid understanding of material behaviour. If ice thinned at the terminus of a glacier, it would be hundreds or thousands of years before that would have any effect on other parts of the glacier 700 km away – particularly at the very cold temperatures found at higher elevations of East Antarctica. It appears he confuses the time it might take ice to flow with the propagation time of a loss at the coast... The thread below (and above) this comment is Goddard at his aggressively ignorant finest.
Dodger, have you got a reference for that paper? I'd like to look it up...
Toggle Commented Jun 29, 2010 on Arctic Basin drop at Arctic Sea Ice
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Jun 25, 2010