"NPS --- predicts an ice-free Arctic by 2016" If there is less than one million square m----- by 2019 this is an accurate prediction, ( 2016 +/- 3 )

Susan Anderson | November 07, 2013 at 19:58 "I dropped in to go totally off topic, with apologies: typhoon Haiyan is bearing down on the Philippines" Not OT - imo We need to keep it in perspective there is more to the story than Atlantic Basin Hurricanes Any chance you may have seen something that implies cyclones - typhoons in the Pacific may be sucking heat out the oceans and preventing - delaying - reducing El Nino's ?

@NJSF - in the the three years I've been following this blog, it's very seldom there is a poster certain about what's going on up there. Would you comment about whether my "graph" of Arctic Sea Ice for prediction of 2014 Minimum will have a Red or Blue Line? http://webpages.charter.net/swf-test/gimg/predictA14.png Thanks

Allen W. McDonnell | September 09, 2013 at 18:36 - "Because of this energy convection effect so long as Earth has surface water to evaporate and condense at high altitude there is a limit to how warm the surface can get." 1. What is the predicted limit? 2. Would you share some links - references.

crandles "Won't it mean use of lorries rather than barges and isn't that bad?" More than bad - USA trucking (lorry) companies are complaining they're unable to find and hire drivers for their current freight operations.

> Posted by: r w Langford | August 30, 2012 at 17:15 http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/asi-2012-update-10-at-a-loss.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b0177446bc6e6970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b0177446bc -------------------------------------------- A snippet from your reference - link: 'COMPLICATED PROCESSES' "We're trying to understand why the ice is melting so fast," said Simon Boxall of the Catlin Arctic Survey. "It's not just down to simple warming. There are more complicated processes." The speed at which sea ice is disappearing in the Arctic has far exceeded almost all predictions and alarmed climate scientists. ------------------------------------------ Yes, we have very good indicators of how the ice "is" When they (Catlin) release more data and the cruise of the Swedish Icebreaker Oden tabulates and more data is available, perhaps we will gain some more understanding of why most of the 'MODELS' have under-estimated rate of melting.

Seke Rob | August 25, 2012 at 11:22 "Gob-smacking ... the extent step chart might need another segment color," ------------------------------------------ As a pending warning may I suggest you reserve solid black for 2M down to 1M. I do appreciate you sharing these Million Step Days.

M. Owens If the volcanic action results in added heat to the water with upwelling, especially from along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge North of Iceland into the Arctic via the Barents, Kara Seas, and Northern Sea Route - it's getting attention from places other than me. "it's going to cause a set back for AGW and give skeptics / deniers information to call folks like me 'extreme alarmists' - while not wishing to give them a 'heads-up' it an issue that is rising - JackT"

How this post "jumped out of order" while editing I don't know - apologize - maybe the same wayward fingers that cause misspelling / typos.

Posted by: TenneyNaumer | August 19, 2012 at 20:53 Tenney, thanks for the "heads-up" on a new cyclone. Will it be The Great #2 of 2012?

idunno, whup's I forgot the LINK Woods Hole Institute: http://polardiscovery.whoi.edu/arctic/circulation.html

Posted by: idunno | August 16, 2012 at 13:43 >"Flicking through the images it looks as if the warm waters in the Laptev Sea have been blown straight across the area North of the Chukchi Sea towards the Beaufort." -------------------------------------------- Found one of the articles about Siberian River flow toward the Beaufort Sea. It has a nice picture, in FLASH, so click on the numbers, especially # 3. Probably should be in a separate post about Arctic Ocean Circulation - will check to see what we've posted & discussed before starting one.

Posted by: idunno | August 16, 2012 at 13:43 "Flicking through the images it looks as if the warm waters in the Laptev Sea have been blown straight across the area North of the Chukchi Sea towards the Beaufort." -------------------------------------------- I don't know where it is - can't find it now, but last year ( 2011) there was an article about the warm-fresh waters from the rivers of Russian Siberia flowing as a stream across the Arctic to the Beaufort Sea. May becoming more visible.

Lodger, Transmorgified the e-mail addy's above. Needed to know how to EDIT a post, first time and it worked. Kind of been useless for the blog lately - used to try to do some animations, but now Neven is always a step ahead of me, maybe someday I will find something positive that's not a duplication. Because the link(s) were not activated properly, it's doubtful any "spambots" picked the addy out, because 99% of them are coded to pick up on the mailto: scheme of the HTML Anchor Tag surrounding mailto:[email protected] Delete this most - no way - it's what a group or team is about - you're relevant, enjoyable, and useful for me read your comments. Cheers, JackT

Seke Rob, Just a note of THANKS for the effort & time you use in the "Step Chart" http://bit.ly/IJISMD I for like and appreciate.

I also voted the lowest on both polls. Mainly because of the "Jet-Stream" effects-excursions of the "Hot is hotter" and the "Cold is colder" along with reasons expressed above by fred. Good Luck to "All Guess-timators" Enjoy your count on the polls with your comments.

For those interested in running the data through a SpreadSheet, TEXT ( .*txt ) converted to .csv, .ods, and .xls are referenced at: http://www.polk-nc.com/asi2012/index.html `

crandles | February 18, 2012 at 12:17 "If you can fill in any data I have missed please let me know. If there is any date you haven't got, feel free to grap it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjpGniYbi4andFdrTEZrdGVjaXBfWHpIb2VhNHNrM1E&pli=1#g" --------------------------------- Thanks and you made my day with more saved data than I have.

Posted by: Kris | February 17, 2012 at 12:41 "OTOH, there is a surprisingly rather big gain of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk." - - - - - - - - ! - - - - - - - - - - Kris, This is something that I find amazing, perhaps aggravating, we discuss Arctic Ice but seem to use Northern Hemisphere 'ice-extent-area' then because Okhotsk is outside the Arctic Circle AND NOT contiguous to the Arctic Ocean nor 'Bays' - 'Seas' which are contiguous. No Doubt Okhotsk Ice (water temperature) contributes to weather. But, in the early stages of the Arctic Melt Season and due to the lower latitude of Okhotsk, which NSIDC-MASIE now lists as 1,142,474 sqkm when this melts out does it contribute to a very fast decrease in Ice Extent causing a lot of "oohs-aahs" about the loss of over a million square kilometers?? Saving the month-by-month MASIE data for a comparison later in the melt season. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_extent_sqkm.csv

Neven, - Thanks for including the cool video for Russian rivers putting fresh water into the Beaufort Sea. H'mnn fresher water freezes at a higher temperature than saltier water. Reason and logic to some things. Also, of related noteworthiness is "The ARM" http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2010/09/the-arm.html extending into the East Siberian Sea. Virtually enclosed by the counter clockwise circulation on it's way to Beaufort Sea. Some things we discussed - admired - wondered about - noted a couple of years ago were worthwhile - at least to me.

Quote L Hamilton: " Anyone care to create a cycle plot? I haven't seen one before, but it's Sunday morning, sunny and cold here, guitars on the stereo, here's a cycle plot of Barrow and Mauna Loa methane 1986-2010: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/Cycle_methane_1.png " - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I do enjoy your cycle charts - lends great perspective.

Quote: Kevin O'Neill; "The Arctic May Be Ice Free In Ten Years - from the Norway Post The melting of the Arctic sea ice is progressing much faster and more dramatically than earlier estimated,,," Kevin thanks for the Link. Sounds like other institutions are beginning to lend support to Maslowski ( 2016 +/- 3 yrs )

Neven, Speaking for no one except myself. My meager donation no longer belongs to me. It is yours "unconditionally." PERIOD !!! What is done is done. You must decide about any reserves in the account. I just hope your time and health permits you to continue this BLOG to 2016 +/- 3 years, or at least another 5 years. As I said in the Tip Jar Post http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/03/tip-jar-chip-in-and-test-topicthread.html " if an excess is available he spends it on comforting (entertaining) someone he may have not given full and proper attention to. I've received at least the price of a theater ticket or six-pack of enjoyment here, how about you? " Looking forward to "contributing - donating" some meager funds again next year. Keep It Alive. R, Jack Taylor