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Wayne, "are you seeing something else?" the reanalyzer does poorly for typical low arctic TPW values. They rarely go above 8kg and usually stay below 2 in 'normal' years. I see this happening https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/15/1500Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-62.37,85.68,816/loc=166.335,86.352 with the source, clearly shown here: (same day and time, different location water vapor flow in blue) https://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/11/15/1500Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-34.15,21.87,816/loc=166.335,86.352 This has happened alternative on both pacific and atlantic sides, I see it as a function of regionally higher tropopause levels in the tropics, likely due to reductions in high troposphere sulfate emissions but also due to increased post ENSO cycle water vapor content.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Wayne, I think that this idea is oversimplifying the impacts of the tropical water vapor expansion that has been heavily documented (by me and others) over at the Sea Ice Forum. For the most part, these intrusions of water vapor do not form cyclonic events but merely pass on through. The scope and scale of these events this year are severely disproportional to the difference in sea ice cover and Precipitable Water Vapor increases can be solely attributed to these inflows. When they halt the TPW goes back down to about 2kg/m^2 (normal for the season). We need to be aware that there is, no doubt, an ice component, but the scope and scale of water vapor and temperature anomalies (with reduced sea ice volume accumulations) are far beyond what the meager ice differences could cause. This is especially true in the beginning of 2016 when the ice was coming off of the recovery years of 2013 and 2014 and was in very (comparably) good shape. Until the El Nino induced water vapor began to flow across and into the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
We were seeing this effect (introduced storms with WV and heat) at off times during 2013 and 2014 with major shifts beginning in Dec 2015 and through 2016. If this effect was due to sea ice 'inviting' these storms then we would have seen them in the January-March of 2006, 2011, 2012 all years with similar extent coverage during this period. We did not. This is an effect that is wholly attributed to increased water vapor moving up from the tropics and being catapulted into the CAB from mid-latitudes. A SIE causality would have shown similar effects during those years with nearly identical coverage, they did not. Even so, if there was a driving factor from sea ice coverage (bringing in more storms and water vapor) the very small difference this year to the others could not account for the massive transformation we have seen this year. Indeed, the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice also appears to be suffering from this same tropical water vapor expansion. It is simply a matter of scale, disproportionate to the slight differences in SIE (especially during the Dec-March period.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2017 on PIOMAS January 2017 at Arctic Sea Ice
The numerical value of extent right now has very little correlation to ice conditions in 2010. The first 5 months of abnormally warm arctic temps led to the horrible ice conditions that are currently present. There is a compounding effect now in play with decreased volume formation, increased ice mobility, subsurface mixing and underice melt. Increased storms and latent heat intrusion in the mid-lower troposphere, much of it directly translating from the warm-pool in the Gulf of Mexico directly up and past Iceland into the CAB. It is happening on the Pacific side as well. We simply do not have the models down for rapidly increasing ocean SST anomalies gaining so much heat that the rate of expansion to the deeper water column cannot keep up. The only other direction for this heat is upwards, into the atmosphere and that is what we are seeing now. The only question is, how much is the Tropospheric aerosol loading impacting this 0-700m OHC accummulation, and, what will be the impacts of a rapid reduction of SO2 emissions under climate mitigation scenarios on the meridional transport of water vapor (and heat) from the tropics into the >40'N (and higher!) latitudes. If the indications are right, megadroughts, atmospheric rivers, massive cut-off, stationary lows (with associated inundations) and rapid Arctic sea ice deterioration will occur in timescales that are significantly shorter than the current working models.
Toggle Commented Dec 20, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
I am not criticizing anyone. I like Vid for his passion and his truth. Even though his technical analysis may not be true, the 'meta-message' is. This message that we really don't have any more time left. none at all. needs to be communicated in a way that punctures our collective sensibilities and the warm, fuzzy pretense that we can 'free-market' our way out of this collective existential crisis. The reason is that, we are already over the hump and on a rapidly accelerating downward trajectory, but some people (at the back of the roller coaster) are simply feeling more wind in their hair. I am not familiar with Norway's defamation laws and don't think it matters (at all). He can be really meanspirited and confrontational and accusatory and doesn't take criticism lightly and believes that we are all blindly rushing to our doom, and he may be right so I give him that. I just said it was a bummer that he got himself banned for being a jerk to neven ;-). We have an amazing potential for alleviating these problems in our society. I sincerely believe that, when we realize that the scientific models are (horrifically) underestimating climate impacts that we will begin to demand the change that we need. There is amazing potential for both the societal demand response and the technical potential for all of these technologies, including the deposition of liquid CO2 into basalt structures and regenerative agriculture to restore climate balance. But Vid is right in that the ice will go away very very soon and that the resulting temperature regime and, apparently, atmospheric circulation regime shifts will be dramatic and, likely, catastrophic. He may be right that a year-round ice free state is possible in the next 15 years. To me that is conjecture and doesn't matter as a summer ice free state in the next 5 is already 50 years ahead of most models. I would like to see a public push for the selection of lead authors for the 'mea culpa' that will serve as the forward to the IPCC AR6. In view of the collective AR4 Nobel Prize, it is only right.
Toggle Commented Dec 20, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry to see Vidaloo gone, he was a good chap. I can vouch for him, having heard his presentation via podcast. He does indeed believe that we will have a year-round ice free arctic condition in 4-7 years. Of course, the only way that would happen is if we achieve some kind of bifurcation pulse change event, like a massive methane release or catastrophic transformation into an equable climate. Of course, this kind of a black swan event cannot be predicted using average values, unless there is a magical law of natural averages that suddenly translates a summer sea ice minimum from zero to a negative value (and hence reducing the 'average' even further for the annual). But he MAY be right, we simply do not know what the future holds in this transformation of our global climate that is unprecedented in geological history, apart from a massive meteor event, it just hasn't happened so fast! So the models are bogus, we have never had an atmospheric forcing happen so fast that the ocean's Sea Surface Temps couldn't warm fast enough. we simply don't know what the clouds and the atmospheric circulations are going to do. But we have an idea with the outrageous mid-latitude moisture moving regularly up into the arctic since the last El Nino and China cut it's sulfur dioxide emissions by 13%. And NO it won't be the 'end of civilization' it will be a powerful activating event that will polarize society into mobilizing. Working together to end the fossil fuel era using techniques and economic models that have not been embraced since the beginning of World War II. (I am talking about global production of renewable energy and transformations of our agriculture, transportation and industrial activities). It will take a massive amount of work and effort but it will also produce a much leaner, self-sufficienct, and environmentally conscious global society, with limited economic disparity and massive increases in total resources. In the end we will find out that it was really the greed of a few powerful men that had enslaved the whole world. We will be back to 300 PPMv CO2 by 2075.
Toggle Commented Dec 20, 2016 on PIOMAS December 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic vs. Antarctic question The reason that this is an idiotic discussion is because it requires a complete lack of scientific understanding to even ask it. There is no parallel between the SUMMER arctic sea ice loss (when there was previously significant ice all summer long) and the SUMMER (cold temperature) Antarctic ice gain. The reason for this is that the summer months has absolutely no sunshine in Antarctica. Therefore, there is no albedo effect. However in the summer in the arctic the loss of sea ice so far has contributed 20% of the current global warming effect due to increased absorption of the ocean with less reflection caused by less sea ice. In addition, the WINTER antarctic sea ice has always been non-existent. So to compare warm season to warm season is impossible. Finally, the SUMMER antarctic sea ice extent values are caused by shifts in winds and due to the warming of the circumpolar deep water, melting the ice shelves from below, causing cold fresh water to rise to the surface and is therefore a NATURAL effect of Global Warming. That is why it is an idiotic question to ask in the first place.
What this shows is that any relevant topic that is cross tabbed with political ideology, in EVERY POLL shows that those who vote consistently on the right live in a virtual reality, with little critical thought or even common sense, prone to urban myths and groupthink and exhibiting classical psychological denial of facts to justify and reinforce their own maladjusted world view. ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO CLIMATE CHANGE. for example: http://www.cc.com/video-clips/lkmdal/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-fox-news--false-statements
this only proves the long-standing view that Republican voters are low-information types who tend to vote against their own interests. I would suspect that nearly any similar poll, with appropriate cross-tabs would show that republican voters are chock full of misinformation/disinformation propaganda being pushed on them by a myopic and ideologically incestual right-wing media and radio personality goebbles' fest.
The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge is characterized by a negative Pacific North American index value as shown in the historic trend here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_pna_index.shtml current projections are that the PNA will be in a positive phase for the next week or so. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html the warm front moving up into the pacific northwest is consistent with a push of high pressure air associated with the observed expansion of the Hadley Cell. It should be noted that recent papers are indicating an Strat. ozone depletion (methane leak result) fingerprint on this expansion: https://agu.confex.com/agu/15chapman2/webprogram/Paper37443.html a recent hitorical analysis showing much greater expansion than predicted in the climate models: https://agu.confex.com/agu/15chapman2/webprogram/Paper37465.html A good discussion of the Hadley Cell expansion on the tropics and mid-latitude drying/desertification as well as why the models are underrepresenting this effect is found here: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rong_Fu/publication/273522332_Global_warming-accelerated_drying_in_the_tropics/links/5518c7190cf2d70ee27b7431.pdf
Wayne, 4C of warming is [i]incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’ and is devastating to the majority of ecosystems. . .[/i] http://grist.org/climate-change/2011-12-05-the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change/ Indeed, extreme heat in the tropics associated with 2C of warming would lead to hundreds of millions of excess human deaths, 4C would produce billions. In addition 4C also, [i]and has a high probability of not being stable[/i] Only 5.2C of globally averaged warming produces about 10 days a year where the heat and humidity levels in the Ohio river valley become so bad that the human body, laying naked in the shade, in a wind storm would be unable to regulate its core body temperature and die of heat stroke. it is called the Heat and Humidity Stroke Index. http://riskybusiness.org/reports/national-report/regions/midwest 8C of averaged warming would make it impossible for most mammals to exist within the 45'N and 45'S latitudes. This is what happened during the Eocene. drilling for oil in the arctic as opposed to draconian seizure of assets and implementation of a war-era climate mitigation response is worse than inept. It is suicidal.
Toggle Commented May 16, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
It seems pretty clear to me that the minimum extent is primarily dependent on local cloud cover and regional temperatures at the onset of the summer season. Increases in mid-latitude moisture and South-East Asian aerosols into the region around may 25th-June 15th over the last 2 years seems to be a good predictor for early melt pond formation which seems to set a self-sustaining melt through the rest of the season. So I keep my eye on the >80'N DMI temp chart. If temps suddenly drive below the seasonal average (for the first time this year!) around May 10th then we might see another "recovery" year like 2013 and 2014. If, however, the temperature moves above the freezing mark early and ins maintained, with high solar activity, then we could easily see <3K by Sept 28th. just my .02
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2015 on CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps at Arctic Sea Ice
is Beckham playing on team jet stream? I mean LOOK at that BEND! http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/03/08/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=13.60,40.12,746
Toggle Commented Mar 8, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
It will be very interesting to see what effect, if any, the recent global economic slowdown and china aerosol reduction measures will have on the global climate this coming summer. If south east Asian aerosols were a primary contributor to the recent 3-year negative phase of the Pacific North American index, then they contributed heavily to the increased winter warming and summer cloudiness that Neven spoke about at the end of this excellent article. for more on the Pacific North American index see: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html
Toggle Commented Mar 7, 2015 on Mad max? at Arctic Sea Ice
The term "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" was first coined over at the California Weather Blog. http://www.weatherwest.com/
Toggle Commented Feb 15, 2015 on PIOMAS February 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
I believe that the recent Negative PDO can be attributed to increased SO2 emissions from southeast asia, though I have not seen any peer reviewed work stating as much.
Toggle Commented Jan 23, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
It is clear to me that the 1940-1975 arctic temperature response to global sulfate emissions indicates a much stronger response (cooling) effect than the global average. This also plays out in recent research regarding aerosol interactions with clouds in Barrow Alaska. The post 2005 change in temperatures shows a similar response to South East Asian sulfate emissions. If this hypothesis is true then we should see a return of temperature trends.
Toggle Commented Jan 20, 2015 on PIOMAS January 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
Just wanted to share this FANTASTIC open letter from Michael Mann in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist http://bos.sagepub.com/content/71/1/33.full.pdf+html The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back
Toggle Commented Jan 8, 2015 on Fram Strait 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
New building designs with high thermal mass, excellent insulation and low thermal shorts can maintain an excellent internal temperature using only body heat and passive heating from the sun. These also remain very cool in the warmer Summer climates. Older houses have a much more difficult time of it as they are usually designed to be drafty, with low or no insulation and high numbers of areas where heat can easily escape from inside to outside. Generally the best retrofits involve attic insulation (either bats or blown-in cellulose), the repair of air infiltration seals (doors, windows, ventilation ducts) and then the higher cost items such as double or triple pane windows, wall insulation and a wholescale renovation with a significant concrete or other high mass subfloor). Still, the lack of structural insulation material on wall/roof joints will produce significant thermal shorts to the outside so a "passivehause" design would involve significant renovation (i.e. removing the roof and rebuilding the wall joints) Heating with wood is an economical and mostly carbon neutral resource as long as not too many people do it and the harvesting of firewood is done sustainably.
Toggle Commented Oct 31, 2014 on PIOMAS October 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
Re: wadham's .8 meters couldn't find much but I did find this: Tweets from the Royal Society Meeting on Arctic Sea Ice Reduction: the evidence, models and global impacts found under #RSArctic14 Informal survey of when #RSArctic14 delegates think Arctic will be ice free: most think 10-30 years from now— Steve Smith (@stv_smth) September 23, 2014 Zhang: 2025 arctic sea ice volume will be 1/6th of the 1979-2012 average Marika Holland shows variability can add 20 years to uncertainty in Arctic ice-free timing. Decades with no trend not uncommon. #RSArctic14— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) September 22, 2014 Maslowski: Ocean Eddies bring Pacific water into the Chukchi Sea under the ice cover. Max Temp is 40m below surface #RSArctic14— Mark Brandon (@icey_mark) September 24, 2014 .@BBCAmos on research discussed at #RSArctic14 meeting: ‘Melt ponds successfully forecast Arctic sea-ice extent’ http://t.co/IBRciIWnFY— The Royal Society (@royalsociety) September 24, 2014 Nicolaus: showing that transmittance of light much greater through melt ponds. they are "Windows to the ocean" #RSArctic14— Mark Brandon (@icey_mark) September 24, 2014 Schmidt: methane could be seen in ice cores but smeared out. Should expect to see pulse of up to 400 ppb methane #RSArctic14— Mark Brandon (@icey_mark) September 23, 2014 Rebuttal: What if the 50GT of methane was released slowly during the last 500 years prior to the late Eemian maximum? Would the ice core smoothing effect show more than a trace anomaly increase? Since there is no paleoclimate scenario within the ice-core record that approximates the RCP 8.5 scenario, the assertion that this provides any assurances is false and should be considered "magical thinking". [fixed html; N.]
MINUMUM! Well, what a significant year. This has been a doozy, I am not just talking about the arctic but rather the appreciable real world weather pattern changes I have seen here in California and on the world's settings. A kind of El Nino and massive hurricanes in the Pacific. Not so much in the Atlantic (yet) due primarily to high altitude wind shear. Weather in Europe? just fine for now, will it be another sopping wet spring? What does climate change have in store? I can only say that we are only 1/2 way to the known LOCKED IN warming that the earth will experience, the vast majority of that warming occurring in the Arctic due to changing albedo. Destruction of arctic permafrost and the burning of boreal peat. The IPCC AR5 projections are severely, SEVERELY understated. Lets not forget that we are talking about the survival of the species here (not about regional temperature permutations in north Europe in 1050 AD!
You know mark, if you spent some actual time reviewing the science you wouldn't sound so uninformed. Saying things like, medieval warming was 1 degree warmer than today is so far away from what the actual science says that you just seem ignorant and/or deceived. Here, this is a website that you might like to start using http://www.scholar.google.com Here is the graphic you need to check out http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/figures/WGI_AR5_Fig5-7.jpg Here is the working group I paper, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter05.pdf look up image 5.7 and start reviewing the papers listed as references to see how much time and effort has been put into reconstructing past temperatures and realize how glibly you repeat falsehoods that are stated to defend an ideological position vs. a scientific one.
Neven we can only do that if a correlation study is found to indicate high positive correlation to TOA absorption and melt pond area. Somehow, I have a feeling that this correlation exists. . . (if high absorption = high insolation and not the opposite as the science news article states)
note here: It appears that the author of the article have their signs wrong, correlating high cloud cover to HIGH top of atmosphere absorption, (as opposed to high albedo and LOW absorption). So the paper indicates a high negative correlation to CLEAR skies and SIA not the opposite.
Neven, Apparently the insolation intensity of late spring and early summer periods are the dominating factor determining the rate of latter year ice melt. This came out yesterday. http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/high-cloud-levels-drive-low-arctic-sea-ice.html This study demonstrates that absorbed solar radiation (ASR) at the top of the atmosphere in early summer (May–July) plays a precursory role in determining the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in late summer (August–October). The monthly ASR anomalies are obtained over the Arctic Ocean (65°N–90°N) from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System during 2000–2013. The ASR changes primarily with cloud variation. We found that the ASR anomaly in early summer is significantly correlated with the SIC anomaly in late summer (correlation coefficient, r  ≈ −0.8 with a lag of 1 to 4 months). The region exhibiting high (low) ASR anomalies and low (high) SIC anomalies varies yearly. The possible reason is that the solar heat input to ice is most effectively affected by the cloud shielding effect under the maximum TOA solar radiation in June and amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. This intimate delayed ASR-SIC relationship is not represented in most of current climate models. Rather, the models tend to over-emphasize internal sea ice processes in summer. you may notice that the majority of the anomalous injection of pacific water vapor took place between May 10th and June 13th. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/09/piomas-september-2014.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73e1381d7970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73e1381d7970d I am not familiar with Blane's work. Is he a researcher? is he working from observational data or pressure charts? I just watch the buoy videos and notice almost no clear sky days until June 20th. Fog and high clouds are the overwhelmingly dominant condition until then.