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The SIR model has three parameters that you can play with - the initial number of infected, beta(infection rate) and gamma(recovery rate). I probably started with a low initial infected number. You can possibly try with a different start and see how it affects the fit. As per Cannerella's paper, IrSIR model offerred a better fit than SIR model. Note that the figure 3 in the paper also has a different aspect ratio and may look like a better fit.
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Feb 24, 2014