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Jim_dowling
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Let me try again.
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Here Fish's insane ECMWF forecast for 9 days time - 954mb in the Arctic.
Toggle Commented Aug 19, 2016 on 2016 Arctic cyclone, update 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim - great interactive log you have there of Northabout. I expect they will zip through the Laptev sea this week with strong tail winds.
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
If you are interested in the northabout's voyage, you can infer how thick the ice is by looking at the distance between the dots in the tracking page here: http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/ Considering the wind has been a constant, big gaps between dots means ice-free and small gaps means careful helmsmanship :)
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
According to the crew on Northabout, anchored at Piotr-Severnyy, the wind was stronger than forecast in the storm. Currently, GFS, has it still at 969 hPa - it's a long drawn out storm. The Northabout seems to have now passed the North-East passage, and it's 'plain sailing' to the Northwest passage now. http://polarocean.co.uk/storm-comrade-nikolai-helming-towards-anchor-slowly-motor-ticking-overit-saved-anchor/ and http://polarocean.co.uk/point-night-got-went-saloon-wind-strong-enough-bit-worry/
Toggle Commented Aug 16, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 5: big cyclone at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, it was just the first figure I read in the paper linked - although on closer analysis there is also a 966 hPa figure there in the paper. Different sources. Anyway, this looks like a big storm that will cover the whole Arctic....
Toggle Commented Aug 12, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
I should mention this is the GFS forecast for Tuesday 16th August...
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Is another Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) brewing for 2016? If it comes about as forecast, it will be comparable to the original GAC from 2012 which had a minimum central pressure of 974.5 hPa. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/Pubs/Zhang_etal2013_cyclone_grl50190.pdf
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2016 on PIOMAS August 2016 at Arctic Sea Ice
Potentially followed by a huge high sitting over the whole arctic. Again, GFS but the date of forecast is for the 12th August (I know, it's a very long term forecast). But a huge storm followed by massive highs would make for an interesting August.
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
It looks like another GAC could be on the horizon, from Climate Reanalyzer's GFS forecast - a 974MB low (and dropping is forming north of Beaufort).
Toggle Commented Jul 27, 2016 on ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point at Arctic Sea Ice
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Jul 27, 2016