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Jim Hunt
Soggy South West England
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Thanks. That one's a bit out of date!
I'll update it when I have a spare 5 minutes, which won't be for a while! See:
"David Rose’s Great Covid-19 Con?"
The NWP area is only really relevant once the melting season is well under way. Presumably your question is a general one, rather than specific to mid April?
PIOMAS December 2019
Another month has passed, and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: November 2019 saw an above average sea ice volume increase according to PIOMAS (3834 vs 3553 km3 for...
@Neven - Logging in via Facebook is still broken. What's the problem with that?
@William - If you've been around that long why can you not understand that questions like:
Which of the current models do you endorse, if any, as having the most accurate projection of future arctic sea ice?
sound an awful lot like "trolling" in Neven's book, and in my alter ego "Snow White's" for that matter?
PIOMAS October 2018
I was ready to write about this 10 days ago, but the data wasn't out yet. And then life got in the way, as it always does. On the bright side, Wipneus has just updated his PIOMAS graphs to mid-October. More on that below, but first I'll discuss the minimum. ----- Another month has passed and so ...
P.S. I upgraded WordPress over at GWC today.
Everything looks fine in my usual browser, Opera. In others the images aren't displaying properly. Sorting that out will have to wait until tomorrow (UTC).
Just click the little thumbnail if you want to see the informative images.
PIOMAS October 2018
I was ready to write about this 10 days ago, but the data wasn't out yet. And then life got in the way, as it always does. On the bright side, Wipneus has just updated his PIOMAS graphs to mid-October. More on that below, but first I'll discuss the minimum. ----- Another month has passed and so ...
I'd noticed the record low JAXA extent as well Neven, along with a few other interesting bits of data:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2018/
Here's CryoSat-2 thickness for example:
There's a remarkable lack of thick ice in the Wandel Sea off north east Greenland this Autumn.
PIOMAS October 2018
I was ready to write about this 10 days ago, but the data wasn't out yet. And then life got in the way, as it always does. On the bright side, Wipneus has just updated his PIOMAS graphs to mid-October. More on that below, but first I'll discuss the minimum. ----- Another month has passed and so ...
Both versions of DMI extent (plus CT area later today!) make a full house of Arctic sea ice metrics at the lowest ever level for the date:
Arctic Sea Ice Area Lowest Ever (For the Date!)
In all the circumstances please excuse this morning's somewhat sensationalist headline!
Mad max?
Okay, I'm not calling the max - short for maximum extent of the sea ice pack that marks the end of the freezing season - as I've sworn not to do that anymore since 2012, when I called the max twice, only to see the trend line bounce up higher and later. But this year something really interestin...
Arcticio - For anecdotal evidence there's the comparison between the "drifts" of Tara and the Fram:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,624
Somewhat more "scientific" is the speed with which buoys installed near the North Pole now emerge from the Fram Strait. See e.g. Figure 4 in:
"Sea ice mass balance observations from the North Pole Environmental Observatory"
Ever sailed to 85N?
Despite this being the second melting season that rebounds from the spectacular sea ice loss event of 2012, there have been some notable events that characterize this melting season. We may have already become used to these events, but may do well to remember that they were much rarer before 20...
Wayne - Whatever the combination of causes, here's an AMSR2 animation revealing the disappearing Beaufort sea ice in August 2014:
Note that the dates are UK style, and the pulse of swell I highlighted at the top was on August 24th.
ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Bob - See also the SWERUS-C3 thread on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,932.msg32339.html#msg32339
ASI 2014 update 6: slow times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
jdallen - I'll politely disagree with you, if I may. I wouldn't fancy navigating the stretch from Bellot Strait to Dease Strait just at the moment:
By the time the National Geographic Explorer gets there the pale blue bits might well be gone though.
Kate - Hapag-Lloyd are offering a cruise through that bit of the Northwest Passage this year:
http://www.hl-cruises.com/finder/bre1416/
If you're feeling flush they're even doing one along the Northern Sea Route too!
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: July report
The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, ba...
RenewCP - The sea ice extent metrics are based on determining the boundary between sea ice and open ocean. A handy thing to know if you're in the business of navigating ships in the vicinity of that boundary.
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Steve - See also the conversation on the ASIF about the "giant hole in the permafrost": http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg31390.html#msg31390
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Boa05att - See also the data from the Marginal Ice Zone Program.
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Wayne - 2013B is a "seasonal" ice mass balance buoy, as is 2013C. Here's a paper detailing a variety of ways in which they aren't necessarily measuring what you think they're measuring:
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/pdfs/SIMB.IGS.Final.pdf
This early in the season I'd be inclined to go along with the bottom sounder estimate of 153 cm ice thickness.
Rob - I'm continually disappointed by the news from the Arctic that the mass media singles out for publication! Regarding your physics/albedo discussion, what used to be called "the pack" isn't packed together the way it used to be any more. What do you suppose the average albedo of this area of sea ice will be over the next couple of months?
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: June report
The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, bas...
Bill - Hopefully that graph makes some sense now?
Remko - The reason I say "open to interpretation" is that last year we kept a close eye on a few ice mass balance buoys over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, including the one sat in the middle of the infamous "Lake at the North Pole". It seems as though the top sounder can report a melt pond as "snow", whilst the bottom sounder can report a recently drained melt pond as "ice":
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg10263.html#msg10263
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Vsaluki - "The simplistic interpretation that it must be cooling around Antarctica is decidedly not the case"
http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice-intermediate.htm
then scroll to the bottom.
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Wayne - The temperature profiles are all from 00:00 on the date in question, as per the downloaded data file. The comments on the 2013I page suggest all times are UTC, but I'm not 100% certain about that.
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Wayne - OK, I'll see if I can come up with something meaningful along those lines. In the meantime IMB buoy 2014B is looking decidedly "melt pondish" today:
Click the image for a closer look.
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
The first in a series of 2014 melting season animations. This one is JAXA RGB for June so far:
One interesting thing to note (and also visible on the ASCAT animation) is that the "arm" of multi-year ice extending from the CAA towards the New Siberian Islands seems to disappear before ones eyes over recent days.
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
@Steve - Mind you I do know some guys who know how to handle a jetski properly:
http://vimeo.com/96934964
Feel free to skip to 7:20 if the mellow midwinter vibe or the sound of my voice bores you!
@Henry - Are you aware of this recent report from very near the North Pole?
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/npeo-2014-field-reports/
"Much of the effort today focused on surveying the floe for the best buoy locations. Most of the [Barneo] camp area is only 1.4m thick."
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Thanks for yet another comprehensive update Neven. I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd plump for somewhere between 2012 and 2013 at this juncture also.
Having followed proceedings closely last year I am however particularly intrigued by a little side wager. What would you say the odds are on being able to jetski to the North Pole at some point in September?
One reason I ask is that this is how things looked last year at the end of August:
As you point out, the melt in the Laptev Sea is setting records this year, and currently there isn't a whole lot of ice (comparatively speaking!) between there and the North Pole.
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
@Bill - Much more from Jeff Ridley and The Met Office on my own blog:
"Can Global Warming be Limited to Two Degrees?"
I live within easy cycling distance of the Hadley Centre! In case you're wondering about the answer, the scientific consensus in this neck of the woods is "no".
The day the ice cap died
The title of this blog post is actually the title of a piece of science fiction, a short story written by Paul Briggs. Just like a couple of weeks ago when I was asked for advice on an idea for a novel, Paul asked me for some feedback on his short story. I figured posting it here, will generate...
Great stuff A-Team. It's good to have you back!
Where have you been hiding all winter?
Jakobshavn calves a(nother) big one
Greenland glacier guardian Espen Olsen informed us a couple of days ago on the Forum that Jakobshavn Isbræ - Greenland's fastest glacier draining 6.5 % of the Greenland ice sheet - has had another big bite taken out of its southern branch recently. Espen made this animation to show the differenc...
This is anecdotal evidence only of course, but to my way of thinking my local infrastructure is already creaking under the strain of climate change. See for example the pictures at the end of my article about:
"A Conversation Between Sceptics"
The day the ice cap died
The title of this blog post is actually the title of a piece of science fiction, a short story written by Paul Briggs. Just like a couple of weeks ago when I was asked for advice on an idea for a novel, Paul asked me for some feedback on his short story. I figured posting it here, will generate...
@LRC - You need to use proper HTML tags instead of BBCODE like you would on the ASIF. Note what it says under the comment box! e.g.
Then of course you have to worry about the size of the image you link to!
Jakobshavn calves a(nother) big one
Greenland glacier guardian Espen Olsen informed us a couple of days ago on the Forum that Jakobshavn Isbræ - Greenland's fastest glacier draining 6.5 % of the Greenland ice sheet - has had another big bite taken out of its southern branch recently. Espen made this animation to show the differenc...
The Mackenzie River is flowing, and hence the Beaufort Sea is turning brown:
ASI 2014 update 2: here comes the Sun
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
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