Thanks. That one's a bit out of date! I'll update it when I have a spare 5 minutes, which won't be for a while! See: "David Rose’s Great Covid-19 Con?" The NWP area is only really relevant once the melting season is well under way. Presumably your question is a general one, rather than specific to mid April?

@Neven - Logging in via Facebook is still broken. What's the problem with that? @William - If you've been around that long why can you not understand that questions like: Which of the current models do you endorse, if any, as having the most accurate projection of future arctic sea ice? sound an awful lot like "trolling" in Neven's book, and in my alter ego "Snow White's" for that matter?

P.S. I upgraded WordPress over at GWC today. Everything looks fine in my usual browser, Opera. In others the images aren't displaying properly. Sorting that out will have to wait until tomorrow (UTC). Just click the little thumbnail if you want to see the informative images.

I'd noticed the record low JAXA extent as well Neven, along with a few other interesting bits of data: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2018/ Here's CryoSat-2 thickness for example: There's a remarkable lack of thick ice in the Wandel Sea off north east Greenland this Autumn.

Both versions of DMI extent (plus CT area later today!) make a full house of Arctic sea ice metrics at the lowest ever level for the date: Arctic Sea Ice Area Lowest Ever (For the Date!) In all the circumstances please excuse this morning's somewhat sensationalist headline!

Arcticio - For anecdotal evidence there's the comparison between the "drifts" of Tara and the Fram: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,624 Somewhat more "scientific" is the speed with which buoys installed near the North Pole now emerge from the Fram Strait. See e.g. Figure 4 in: "Sea ice mass balance observations from the North Pole Environmental Observatory"

Wayne - Whatever the combination of causes, here's an AMSR2 animation revealing the disappearing Beaufort sea ice in August 2014: Note that the dates are UK style, and the pulse of swell I highlighted at the top was on August 24th.

Bob - See also the SWERUS-C3 thread on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,932.msg32339.html#msg32339

jdallen - I'll politely disagree with you, if I may. I wouldn't fancy navigating the stretch from Bellot Strait to Dease Strait just at the moment: By the time the National Geographic Explorer gets there the pale blue bits might well be gone though. Kate - Hapag-Lloyd are offering a cruise through that bit of the Northwest Passage this year: http://www.hl-cruises.com/finder/bre1416/ If you're feeling flush they're even doing one along the Northern Sea Route too!

RenewCP - The sea ice extent metrics are based on determining the boundary between sea ice and open ocean. A handy thing to know if you're in the business of navigating ships in the vicinity of that boundary.

Steve - See also the conversation on the ASIF about the "giant hole in the permafrost": http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg31390.html#msg31390

Boa05att - See also the data from the Marginal Ice Zone Program.

Wayne - 2013B is a "seasonal" ice mass balance buoy, as is 2013C. Here's a paper detailing a variety of ways in which they aren't necessarily measuring what you think they're measuring: http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/pdfs/SIMB.IGS.Final.pdf This early in the season I'd be inclined to go along with the bottom sounder estimate of 153 cm ice thickness. Rob - I'm continually disappointed by the news from the Arctic that the mass media singles out for publication! Regarding your physics/albedo discussion, what used to be called "the pack" isn't packed together the way it used to be any more. What do you suppose the average albedo of this area of sea ice will be over the next couple of months?

Bill - Hopefully that graph makes some sense now? Remko - The reason I say "open to interpretation" is that last year we kept a close eye on a few ice mass balance buoys over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, including the one sat in the middle of the infamous "Lake at the North Pole". It seems as though the top sounder can report a melt pond as "snow", whilst the bottom sounder can report a recently drained melt pond as "ice": http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg10263.html#msg10263

Vsaluki - "The simplistic interpretation that it must be cooling around Antarctica is decidedly not the case" http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice-intermediate.htm then scroll to the bottom.

Wayne - The temperature profiles are all from 00:00 on the date in question, as per the downloaded data file. The comments on the 2013I page suggest all times are UTC, but I'm not 100% certain about that.

Wayne - OK, I'll see if I can come up with something meaningful along those lines. In the meantime IMB buoy 2014B is looking decidedly "melt pondish" today: Click the image for a closer look.

The first in a series of 2014 melting season animations. This one is JAXA RGB for June so far: One interesting thing to note (and also visible on the ASCAT animation) is that the "arm" of multi-year ice extending from the CAA towards the New Siberian Islands seems to disappear before ones eyes over recent days.

@Steve - Mind you I do know some guys who know how to handle a jetski properly: http://vimeo.com/96934964 Feel free to skip to 7:20 if the mellow midwinter vibe or the sound of my voice bores you! @Henry - Are you aware of this recent report from very near the North Pole? http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/npeo-2014-field-reports/ "Much of the effort today focused on surveying the floe for the best buoy locations. Most of the [Barneo] camp area is only 1.4m thick."

Thanks for yet another comprehensive update Neven. I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd plump for somewhere between 2012 and 2013 at this juncture also. Having followed proceedings closely last year I am however particularly intrigued by a little side wager. What would you say the odds are on being able to jetski to the North Pole at some point in September? One reason I ask is that this is how things looked last year at the end of August: As you point out, the melt in the Laptev Sea is setting records this year, and currently there isn't a whole lot of ice (comparatively speaking!) between there and the North Pole.

@Bill - Much more from Jeff Ridley and The Met Office on my own blog: "Can Global Warming be Limited to Two Degrees?" I live within easy cycling distance of the Hadley Centre! In case you're wondering about the answer, the scientific consensus in this neck of the woods is "no".

Great stuff A-Team. It's good to have you back! Where have you been hiding all winter?

This is anecdotal evidence only of course, but to my way of thinking my local infrastructure is already creaking under the strain of climate change. See for example the pictures at the end of my article about: "A Conversation Between Sceptics"

@LRC - You need to use proper HTML tags instead of BBCODE like you would on the ASIF. Note what it says under the comment box! e.g. Then of course you have to worry about the size of the image you link to!

The Mackenzie River is flowing, and hence the Beaufort Sea is turning brown: