Doc - Possibly the very near future? Here's an up to date animation of Arctic sea ice age: https://youtu.be/1Paq5Us1EPE

James - Take a look at the "Slow Transition" thread over on the forum: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,933 In essence, the suggestion that once the vast majority of multi-year sea ice has gone the ice in the CAB will still regrow to ~2 meter thickness every winter. Also the JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now below the magic 4 million mark. 3.99 million km² to be precise!

An excellent summary Neven. One thing I've also been wondering about is the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone. You mention it in passing, but there wasn't one this year. In 2012 it was perhaps in just the right place at just the right time. Not this year though. Is that fact significant do you suppose? Channelling Doc, on a different but related topic please note that the start of the MOSAiC Expedition is only 4 days away now: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-mosaic-expedition/ "In September 2019, the German research icebreaker Polarstern will set sail from Tromsø, Norway, to spend a year drifting through the Arctic Ocean – trapped in ice. In essence Polarstern will be following in the illustrious footsteps of Tara and Fridtjof Nansen's Fram before her, but with vastly more scientists in attendance than previous transpolar drift expeditions."

JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now down to 4.03 million km². The 2016 minimum was 4.02. In exciting news for the nerds amongst us I am reliably informed that at long last some more ice mass balance buoys are "awaiting deployment" across the Arctic Ocean, including four as part of the forthcoming MOSAiC expedition: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg228698.html#msg228698 MOSAiC - Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate It could be the largest-scale Arctic research expedition of all time: in September 2019 the German research icebreaker Polarstern will depart from Tromsø, Norway and, once it has reached its destination, will spend the next year drifting through the Arctic Ocean, trapped in the ice. A total of 600 people from 19 countries, who will be supplied by other icebreakers and aircraft, will participate in the expedition – and several times that number of researchers will subsequently use the data gathered to take climate and ecosystem research to the next level.

Doc et al. You may be interested to learn that JAXA/ViSHOP extent has fallen (just!) below the 2007 minimum? http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-2019-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-14

Elisee - 1-3) Agreed 4) Surely sea ice area is a better metric when one is considering albedo feedback etc.? 5) I have to disagree with you on this one. There's all sorts of "processing" involved in turning "raw data right off the satellite" into the assorted SIE numbers. Check out the differences between the NASA Team, Bootstrap and ARTIST algorithms for example: https://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/1797/2015/tc-9-1797-2015.pdf Regarding your final point, they are indeed. Check out this recent "retweet" by the 45th President of the good ol' U S of A for a prime example: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/ship-of-fools-iii-escapes-arctic-sea-ice/#comment-289052

Elisee - See also this recent NASA video: https://youtu.be/xlPVUB8svuI It shows sea ice age, and hence volume, declining more rapidly than extent. The trend is even more obvious!

Elisee - The trolls are certainly out in force now! https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1172458058473189377

DrPhil - Here's an extract from the latest PIOMAS graph You can examine the whole thing at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-2019-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#PIOMAS-Aug With luck a mid month update will be along in a few days. FYI JAXA has (barely) posted a new minimum of 4.09 million km². I think you'll find that persistent high pressure over the Arctic was what "knocked 2019 off track". This year the early cyclone caused dispersion into the Beaufort Sea: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/05/melt-pond-may-2019/

Doc - Your JAXA graph is blurred out behind a photobucket ad when I look at it. Here's a cropped version of my equivalent image to illustrate your point: along with my own musings on the 2019 metric minimum season: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-2019-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/ You may also be interested to learn that a certain Donald Trump has been promulgating the "Climate Change Warriors got stuck in the ice" meme on Twitter? My alter ego took it upon herself to try and set the record straight: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1172158138805608448 Sad?

I foolishly ventured on to Twitter this morning, where I discovered some nice pictures of the sea ice off the east coast of Svalbard courtesy of the Norwegian Coastguard, plus Matt Ridley regurgitating the same garbage as G Man. I felt compelled to reply! https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1172071423063527426

Doc - You and G Man will no doubt be overjoyed to learn that MS Malmö has now reached Bear Island without sinking: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/ship-of-fools-iii-escapes-arctic-sea-ice/#Sep-11 Whether her brief encounter with some sea ice has improved her patina or not remains to be seen. Whether the 2019 minimum extent has occurred yet also remains to be seen. At this juncture it seems entirely feasible that different versions of the metric will come up with significantly different dates! The NSIDC daily minimum currently sits at 4.24 million km² on September 4th.

Mornin' G Man (UTC) - You're still just regurgitating your utterly inadequate sources. The Malmö isn't currently "waiting for Coast Guard ship assistance" for example. It wasn't when the cryodenialosphere went wild with the "news": Perhaps you'd be good enough to tell all the other "rebloggers" of the same "story" about the happy ending?

Thanks G Man - It's not spring yet though! The MS Malmö isn't a "climate change research ship". Allegedly it is "a homely ship of maritime historical dignity" which "has been listed as a traditional ship of cultural value since 2004": https://arcticwildlifetours.com/ms-malmo/ Perhaps you could persuade your sources to do their due diligence a bit better in future?

I am extremely curious to learn which "climate change research ship" allegedly became "stuck in the vanishing Arctic ice" earlier this year? In case it's of interest to regular readers Oden didn't become stuck in any sea ice when checking out the "remote Ryder Glacier in northwest Greenland" recently: https://polar.se/en/about-polar-research/expeditions/ryder-2019/ What's more Polarstern will intentionally become stuck in the vanishing Arctic sea ice in a few weeks time: https://www.mosaic-expedition.org

It has indeed been a hell of a month Neven! One I have been following closely over at: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/ You have covered a variety of more esoteric metrics above, but looking at the traditional(ish) ones, Wipneus' "high resolution" Arctic wide area and extent numbers are both currently "lowest for the date" in the admittedly rather short AMSR2 record: Click the images to view the full size graphs. We shall now have to wait with barely bated breath to see if the Arctic weather allows a "July cliff" to take Arctic sea ice area further into uncharted waters this summer.

Arctic wide sea ice area is now lowest for the date in the high resolution AMSR2 record: http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-23

I'm not quite sure what the relevance is, but one of my neighbours is a Danish woman. Now the possessor of recently acquired dual UK citizenship.

AJbT - I suspect that Rear Admiral White may have revised his prediction somewhat by now, but back in 2013 the US NAVY consensus was 2023. Listen to the first track carefully: https://soundcloud.com/water-connects-us By all means listen to the other tracks too!

My pleasure Chris, You may also wish to take a look at what A-Team is up to these days? https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2558.msg204548.html#msg204548

AJbT - I assume that Neven was referring to the "scientific" consensus?

Hi Chris, Long time no see! I referred to the "Slow Transition" not so very long ago over on the ASIF: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2709.msg201628.html#msg201628 Much discussion ensued!

Thanks AJbT, I see what you mean :) I added a Terra 3-6-7 layer which made it obvious that the Arctic Dolphin is constructed of clouds. Meanwhile my alter ego engaged Judah Cohen in conversation on Twitter yesterday: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1133776436702134272 We concluded that "great minds think alike!", and that in Judah's words: "If polar cap geopotential height anomalies remain on the warm/positive side for much of the summer, this could result in accelerated sea ice loss relative to recent summers."

Regular ASIB readers may recall that many moons ago I was "outed" and then "banned" by a certain Anthony Watts? Here's the latest update on that tale of woe: https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1133643627895382018 A tweet from my Arctic alter ego to ex Prof. Judith Curry, purveyor of porky pies to the US Congress (PPPUS for short).

AJbT - What "Dolphin looking shadowy figure" would that be? Do you have a picture, or perhaps a Worldview link to illustrate what you're referring to? Wayne - Thanks for the mention! I'm familiar with cold core and warm core cyclones in the North Atlantic. However can you elucidate further re their Arctic cousins?