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"The report was prepared by more than 90 scientists and review editors from 40 countries".
"It includes more than 6,000 scientific references, 133 contributing authors and more than 42,000 expert and government review comments".
Scientists are a notoriously conservative bunch. If they say 12 years you can safely assume it is already too late.
Freezing season has started, or has it?
We tend to focus on the end of the melting season, also known as the minimum, because that's when the ice covers the least amount of water. That's all fine and dandy, but of course, it's just an arbitrary measuring point. For instance, this year's minimum for the JAXA sea ice extent data set was...
Eventually the Atlantic and the Pacific (mostly the Atlantic) are going to snuff the Arctic, and when it happens it will come in the form of Dew Point. The only question is when, and how to tell....you can tell when the ice minimum extent runs a lot late, not with the minimum extent itself.
I think it is this year, but who knows? (My guess for this year is based upon how warm last Winter was.)
2016 Mega-Dipole
As reported in the last ASI update, the forecast Dipole has now set up. Yesterday's last analysis chart provided by Environment Canada, at 18Z, showed the high pressure moving in via the Bering Strait at 1037 hPa, while a rapidly weakening storm that had moved in from Siberia (lowest central pre...
Anyone know of a good long term graph of Absolute Humidity (Dew Point) in the Arctic? I suspect that would do more to explain what is going on here than anything else.
ASI 2016 update 6: hell and high pressure
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
"I'll be doing a piece on the Walsh et al. paper around this year's minimum." -- Neven
Sometime in October?
September Arctic sea ice extent: 1935-2014
A couple of days ago a paper was published in the journal Revista de ClimatologĂa by Diablobanquisa, a Spanish blogger who regularly writes about Arctic sea ice on his blog. In this paper Diablobanquisa, together with his co-author, presents a new time series of September Arctic sea ice extent, ...
"@ Jim W
Perhaps you'd care to rephrase your thoughts, as Wayne and I seem to have arrived at differing conclusions as to your meaning."
Not sure how what he said was in disagreement -- though he did make a synoptic reference.
I'm expecting that at some point the ice will simply go away, and I see no reason why it will do so in the heat of Summer -- even if I don't know when. I think that when it comes to climate, rather than weather, it is the SST, not the air temperature, that matters.
That was my point. (that is...weather is a lagging indicator, in my opinion)
ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
Looking at SSTs in the Far North Atlantic (used to be Arctic) and the prevalence of small storms, I'm not convinced the low extent this year will be in September. Seems to me we are in transition from a desert Arctic to a humid Arctic. With H2O being the actual major Greenhouse Gas, this will have more and more significance in upcoming Fall weather patterns. The only question being which year the end of Summer Melt is pushed into the polar night.
ASI 2016 update 4: breaking point
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Because of issues with data based on the SSMIS sensor aboard DMSP satellites, I mainly focus on higher-resolution AMSR2 data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA...
"Long story short: Even though 2016 has been breaking records all year so far, as things currently stand, it will take special weather conditions for it to break any records near the end of the melting season."
OK...then the simple question is: why has it been breaking records all year so far?
2016 melting momentum, part 2
Happy Solstice, everyone! Credit: NASA/Kathryn Hansen The previous post on melting momentum was running long, so here's an addition dealing with compactness, the final piece of information we have to assess the amount of melting momentum. Just before the start of July, the month of big melt. Fi...
What people who haven't been watching don't understand is that we who have been watching are holding our breath. The best way of seeing why is by looking at the NSIDC extent graph. 2012 had started turning down by now; which hasn't happened so far this year. At the same time, we are currently just about at the point where 2012 was after it turned down.
Does this year's extent stay "flat" and run into 2012's? Or does it soon do the same thing 2012 did?????
(Ignore the divergence and increase in extent in the central ocean over the last few days....that is just to confusing to contemplate.)
Crisis in the Cryosphere
I recently received an e-mail to draw my attention to a recent two-part feature article on the Scientific American website by Dr. John J. Berger, an independent energy and environmental consultant. The article called Crisis in the Cryosphere is about the changes going on in the world of ice and ...
Chris,
"Is the ice response lagging or leading the driving of climate forcings?"
All the evidence from the failings of previous models and over-optimistic projections flowing from them is that not only is ice response a lagging indicator, it is a strongly lagging indicator.
I'm going off how bad the projections have been, as that is my best evidence in predicting the future.
Crisis in the Cryosphere
I recently received an e-mail to draw my attention to a recent two-part feature article on the Scientific American website by Dr. John J. Berger, an independent energy and environmental consultant. The article called Crisis in the Cryosphere is about the changes going on in the world of ice and ...
I still say we have baked in the Industrial Revolution and these numbers are all bogus -- and not in a good way. What we are seeing now are the results from what we did 150+ years ago, and what we are doing now won't be meaningful for at least another 150 years.
Crisis in the Cryosphere
I recently received an e-mail to draw my attention to a recent two-part feature article on the Scientific American website by Dr. John J. Berger, an independent energy and environmental consultant. The article called Crisis in the Cryosphere is about the changes going on in the world of ice and ...
You might want to look at this toy:
https://earth.nullschool.net/
It's not obvious at first, but you click on the word "earth" for the menu, left-drag on the globe to turn it, and scroll-wheel to zoom.
Animating current with a sea surface temperature anomaly overlay is interesting while looking down on the north.
Beaufort final update
This isn't a final update as such, because I will certainly be mentioning events in the Beaufort Sea in upcoming ASI updates. But it is the last in a series of blog posts I have written (one, two and three) about this unprecedented event that started over 6 weeks ago and has led to a heavily cra...
Remko Kampen: "Consider a well B exactly below well A."
Precisely. A simple cusp catastrophe. Certainly, the potential function may be more complex, but the simple notion of falling off the edge of the minimum surface at one point to land at another location on the minimum surface holds true in all catastrophes.
In fact, all weather and climate can bee seen as sequences of sets of catastrophes. When a breeze comes up and then suddenly fades mathematically it can be described as a catastrophe where the minimum surface of pressure potential at that point folds and the wind falls from one surface to another; which we perceive as a sudden change in wind speed and/or direction.
There are physical events we can easily point to and qualitatively say are going be be seeds for large complex foldings of the equipotential surfaces and which will tend to generate large catastrophe regions in the minimum potential surface. One such event is when the Arctic Sea Ice completely melts out in Summer. The climatic system before the event of summer melt-out is functionally different than it will be after the event. Sudden change is to be expected, and the surprise would be if there was none.
The Four Charts That Really Matter
Guest post by R. Gates Recently on Judith Curry's blog, a guest post was submitted by DocMartyn which was a rather nicely (from a math perspective) done extrapolation of past tropospheric temperature trends and cycles out to 2040 and beyond. It was essentially a nice job of, as he put it, "gra...
P.S. An obvious example of a catastrophe surface is when the Arctic Sea Ice runs out before the end of Summer. Before the event we have the remaining sea ice acting as a buffer. After the event the buffer is removed. Topologically, this is a catastrophe, as the system has functionally changed.
The Four Charts That Really Matter
Guest post by R. Gates Recently on Judith Curry's blog, a guest post was submitted by DocMartyn which was a rather nicely (from a math perspective) done extrapolation of past tropospheric temperature trends and cycles out to 2040 and beyond. It was essentially a nice job of, as he put it, "gra...
Kevin McKinney: "Jim, you may wish to consider this exchange from Realclimate."
Seems to me that the forcing has tended to end up in relatively short term (~100yr) ocean sinks (such as the Sargasso Sea) which effectively regurgitate their heat somewhat later. That is to say, we are experiencing the effects of rather small forcings from the 1800s now, and you ain't seen nothing yet. I see no evidence that the models have gotten timelines even slightly correct, though they might be doing somewhat better about long-term effects. I'm expecting the observed climate to change in what are viewed as large and sudden step changes as various catastrophe surfaces are crossed while the system seeks a new meta-stable quasi-equilibrium.
The Four Charts That Really Matter
Guest post by R. Gates Recently on Judith Curry's blog, a guest post was submitted by DocMartyn which was a rather nicely (from a math perspective) done extrapolation of past tropospheric temperature trends and cycles out to 2040 and beyond. It was essentially a nice job of, as he put it, "gra...
I'm still of the opinion that it is the CO2 levels from the 1800s that matter now and that current CO2 levels don't have any short-term meaning.
The Four Charts That Really Matter
Guest post by R. Gates Recently on Judith Curry's blog, a guest post was submitted by DocMartyn which was a rather nicely (from a math perspective) done extrapolation of past tropospheric temperature trends and cycles out to 2040 and beyond. It was essentially a nice job of, as he put it, "gra...
Just did my bit on the viral part. You'd think YouTube would have a G+ button.
Ice cube volume video
Andy Lee Robinson fired up his super computer to produce the video below, and during rendering composed the soundtrack to go with it: I think it's his best one so far.
Jim Williams added a favorite at Arctic Sea Ice
Apr 26, 2013
"I say NO! As long as the modeler has chosen a sufficiently wide range of parameters so that at least one ensemble member gets it right, then the modeler has done their job."
It's not clear to me what "their job" means. I guess Climatology Modelling is just doomed to be another dismal science along with Economics. We certainly Don't have anything like Newton's Laws here.
I might applaud the scientists doing the modelling while I shift funding dollars to obtaining actual data.
PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update
The Polar Science Center has released some extra PIOMAS gridded data that allows smart bunnies like Wipneus and Chris Reynolds to show how ice thickness is distributed around the Arctic. Here's a thickness distribution map made by Wipneus that shows the difference between March 2012 and March th...
Rob, I think that it is the models themselves which are gradual. That is to say, the Science used to be that climate change is slow and smooth so the models where made to reflect this belief. They do not toss the old model and start over every year because it's too expensive (even if they should), so the models slowly change in the direction of newer understanding. (Note my use of newer and older, not better or worse.)
It's a simple case of Lamarkian Evolution.
PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update
The Polar Science Center has released some extra PIOMAS gridded data that allows smart bunnies like Wipneus and Chris Reynolds to show how ice thickness is distributed around the Arctic. Here's a thickness distribution map made by Wipneus that shows the difference between March 2012 and March th...
I have one general criticism of A-Team's analysis of how to get ahead -- time. He'd be right if we had another 50 years of "nothing new under the Sun," but I really doubt that whatever it takes 10 years from now will at all resemble what it took 50 years ago. This will be true from the utter collapse of the copyrighted journals to the rejection of learning in schools.
PIOMAS April 2013 - extra update
The Polar Science Center has released some extra PIOMAS gridded data that allows smart bunnies like Wipneus and Chris Reynolds to show how ice thickness is distributed around the Arctic. Here's a thickness distribution map made by Wipneus that shows the difference between March 2012 and March th...
Lodger, I think it could be said that sex caused the disease. Now I need a fig leaf...
Not exactly a rebound, but volume does seem to have plateaued for a moment.
PIOMAS April 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The good news from last month stands unwavered. The 2013 trend line has stuck to those of 2011 and 2...
I know. Off topic...
One of the decorative sages is just slightly greener than the borders of this blog P-maker. Not sure what its name is.
A drastically greener Arctic to come
I try to donate money to organisations that plant trees from time to time, often combined with efforts to provide the poor in Africa and Asia with efficient wood stoves, but also try to make sure the trees are planted in more southerly latitudes, as green stuff in more northerly latitudes tend...
Personally Paul, I think your prediction is about 2.9 too high. I do agree with your assessment of the 'recovery', but I also think there are signs that the halocline may be breaking down.
I admit that I'm being very aggressive in my predictions, but I'm sticking with them at least until mid-summer. This, of course, is just a guess -- but I'm rather sure that some Summer soon the ice is simply going to melt away, and this Summer is as good as any other.
PIOMAS March 2013
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Excellent news! The trend line has crept up some more and 2013 now has 133 km3 more ice than 2012 an...
If the Navy has it at all right then what's happening North of Greenland is rather impressive: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Crack is bad for you (and sea ice)
The previous pun - cracks of dawn - was wearing off, and the comment section was getting full, so here's a new pun and blog post dedicated to the cracking event that started in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas a couple of weeks ago, and then moved on to the multi-year ice against the Canadian Archi...
Looking at 1) Current Baffin/Newfoundland Sea Ice Area, 2) Sea Surface Temperature anomaly in the North-West Atlantic, 3) the Surface Air temperature Anomaly West of (and over) Greenland, and 4) the AO, I'd like to re-ask a question I asked last fall. What happens if the Gulf Stream decides to flow to the West of Greenland?
Max reached (?)
Cryosphere Today sea ice area and IJIS sea ice extent numbers are now so much below the peaks reached so far that it looks like the ice pack has reached its maximum size and will now start to get smaller as we transition from freezing season to melting season. Mind you, I called the max CT SIA t...
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