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Joshua McCurry
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Looking at the GFS/Euro, seems like the positive dipole lasts for about 5-6 days before our cyclone is swept back towards the CAA. My guess is that if we don't see big losses by then 2013's chances of overtaking 2007/2011 are practically over
Toggle Commented Aug 7, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
4.9 MKm^2 +-0.4 Km2 The ice seems to be holding its own this year. Volume (at-least out to July)is slightly higher than 2010, and judging from Bremen and Eosdis Worldview there is significantly less whispy, deteriorated ice than last year. Specifically, the CAA and Beaufort are incomparably better off than last year, with break up near the archipelago occurring nearly two weeks later. Export also appears to have been curtailed by the lack of a dipole and relatively late removal of the Nares bridge. The next few days will probably not see much in terms of melt, as anomalous cold moves into the ESS/Laptev and the Siberian/Atlantic side of the CAB as per the GFS. The relative warmth forecast for the Beaufort/CAA will most likely be offset by wind driven intrusions of MYI. Barring a massive cyclone, the remaining 3-4 weeks of melt time will not be enough to drop the ice below 2011 levels even if favorable conditions return. OTOH, if a weak low persists in the CAB, the low temps could keep the ice close to 2009 extent. Note: I could well be wrong, since I'm far from an expert at this
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Jul 29, 2013