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It shouldn't be counted but I thought I should add this prediction of the sea ice from Japan. 5% less than the 2012 record of 3.41 million square kilometers.
My guesstimation is for 2.6 MKm^2 My thinking is that last year produced the largest amount of first year ice on record. I'm suggesting that the energy budget for the area is the same as last year plus a small additional amount of energy from the increasing global warming. It therefore seems likely that at least the same amount of ice will melt this year with some energy left over to melt more. With all the cracking and thinness I'm suggesting another 1 off last years result to give the 2.6 number.
I'm new to learning about this field but felt I needed to post this and this thread about what records mean seems like a good location. I've just read an interesting blog post from someone who is actually out in the ice. They are suggesting that the record lows that have been reported may not be correct. In fact there seems to be some evidence that the amount of ice is significantly less than what the satellite measurements are showing. They have someone from NSIDC taking measurements that will be compared to the satellite records. Any thoughts on the matter?
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