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Tom Maguire
I'm a former Wall Streeter with many kids, most of them younger than my blogging counterparts.
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Peter - re Well, as I learned from reading " A Brief History of Everyone who Ever Lived" contrary to popular belief, there is no gene responsible for making some ethnic groups, such as Native American Indians or Irish, more prone to alcoholism. I know I have read about the Asian flush (and had a friend who experienced it. And this looks very scientific. Emphasis added in last bit. Studies have shown that people carrying certain ADH and ALDH alleles are at significantly reduced risk of becoming alcohol dependent. In fact, these associations are the strongest and most widely reproduced associations of any gene with the risk of alcoholism. **As will be discussed later in this article, the alleles encoding the different ADH and ALDH variants are unevenly distributed among ethnic groups**. The Asian flush is described here as protective. VERY basically, in breaking down alcohol the first step is to convert it to acetaldehyde. A certain gene combo makes it very difficult for some people to take the next step, which is to convert the acetaldehyde to something less ghastly. Folks whose genes can't process that acetaldehyde get, essentially, instant hangovers after one drink. Turns out to be a deterrent to alcohol abuse.
On Cuomo and fleeing New Yorkers: It's nothing to do with NY's high taxes and spending, and progressive income tax, it's all Trump's fault for taking the subsidy away. Whingy camels always blame the last straw.
Toggle Commented Feb 20, 2019 on Enter Sandmann at JustOneMinute
In case you weren't aware, Someone dug up an old John Wayne Playboy interview from 1971 and the SJW's on Twitter got all outraged: I'm stealing the observation that the outrage was so great that John Wayne will never find work in Hollywood again.
Toggle Commented Feb 20, 2019 on Enter Sandmann at JustOneMinute
I trust Sandmann's attorneys to know what they're doing than AllahSoyBoy. I am a big fan of AllahP but I think he is wrong-ish about this. $250MM won't happen but this is a high-powered law firm clearly working on contingency. They didn't need the publicity - they took this with a payday in mind.
Toggle Commented Feb 20, 2019 on Enter Sandmann at JustOneMinute
I'm surprised they even let citizens have something as dangerous as electricity in our homes at all. Shocking, isn't it?
1. No gasoline powered device of any kind can be sold to or owned by any man over 50 unless said device has a working electric starter. 2. No electronic device that includes any sort of time keeping function... 3. No electronic device such as a smoke detector which includes a 9V battery shall be allowed to announce a dwindling charge by emitting any sort of "Beep"... If I could only pick one I would pick (1) and (3) because I really want at least two. Frank Sinatra sang about the romance of the Small Wee Hours but I doubt he spent ten minutes with his hands on his hips staring at three smoke detectors within fifteen feet of each other trying to guess which one was beeping once a minute. And of course, he didn't include a verse about having only one 9V battery handy either. Hey, a Bonus Brainwave! These 9V batteries ALWAYS fail at night because the thermostat is turned down and batteries don't like the cold. Maybe... that has to be better than my other theory, which is to Blame Al Gore.
Toggle Commented Jan 30, 2019 on Build The Compromise! at JustOneMinute
Tom, where would you get even 1/10 of the wealth (unrealized capital gains) tax if your assets were illiquid and indivisible? I suppose it depends on why they are illiquid. Top execs at Uber (still private) can't sell their shares publicly but they can borrow against them or (maybe?) sell them privately to the VC investors. A middle-aged Picasso with many millions of dollars worth of art he produced on his walls might also be able to borrow if he doesn't want to sell. And I keep hammering on the deferred payment aspect, and ought to mention the thresholds as well. Tricky to track the accounting but I would go back to John, holding $100 MM of stock with a cost basis of basically zero. At the outset he has a $100 MM mark to market gain. I would exclude some level (to keep it simple, the same threshold as the wealth tax, $50 MM). So his tax due over ten years is 20% on $50MM, or $10 MM. Therefore he owes $1 MM upfront (or maybe with a two year lag, as I ranted about above.) Next year he'll owe another $1 MM, adjusted up or down for that year's gain or loss from the new $100 MM baseline. So say the stock has fallen to $90MM. His mark to market loss is $10MM; taxes are $2MM due back to him. That loss could be applied all upfront (reducing his remaining deferred payment of $9MM to $7MM), or amortized over some time frame, maybe the same as for payments. So call it an offset of $200,000 per year for ten years. In any case, the numbers shouldn't be that hard to finance, if he really can't or won't sell anything at all. (Yeah, easy for me to say...)
Then again, IIRC Chairman Dick Fuld's Lehman shares went from $1 billion to $50 million when Lehman went bust. Easy to imagine he would have been due a refund for net payments made on unrealized gains over the many preceding years. Ahh. Put in a hardship rule for guys who get to a mere $50 million the hard way. He was unloading swanky residences in tony towns and selling art off the walls. AND no more private jet. The pain was no doubt real.
You can't tax cap gains annually, it would be an unnecessary disaster to try. If you "mark to market" stock portfolios every Dec 31, holders will pay tax on unrealized gains one year, have a new cost basis going into the following year, and could very likely be entitled to a cap loss the following Dec 31. And, of course, as of now taxpayers can only declare a 3 grand cap loss per year - that would have to go out the window. Yes, but... if the tax payment is deferred over ten or fourteen years, subsequent declines in assets values will be captured in the new net deferred tax due calculation. Basically, I owe my 2018 gain over over ten years but my 2019 loss can be offset against nine of those years. Or (try and explain this!) have a two year lag before any payment is due on gains (so, pay them off in years 2 thru 12) but allow immediate amortized offset (yrs 1-10) on losses, subject to no refunds. That ought to help create normal ups and downs from creating huge cash inflows and outflows and spare the government from writing rebate checks on cap gains that become cap losses. The accounting might get tricky, but if this proposal creates more demand for lawyers and tax accountants, that's a feature! Lots of folks will lobby for complexity.
...just as you cannot mix white and black and still have white As a long ago house painter myself I am confident I know a paint metaphor when I see one. However, in the current climate, even with my Metaphor Mangler dialed to eleven I wouldn't have the courage to try that one out.
JUST IN: Jeff Flake says he will not run for president in 2020, signs on as CBS contributor... I don't want to spoil it by clicking the link - please tell me the headline is "Flake Out!". (Lie if you have to...)
1 achieved her success largely by pretending to be a Native American. Don't let her Lying Weaseldom about her heritage obscure her Lying Weaseldom about medical bankruptcies, which greatly elevated her profile. I will credit Gail Heriot, Todd Zywicki and Megan Mcardle with leading the pushback on Warren's "research".
To be fair to Barry, he could have done more to stop fracking than he did, so in that sense, he "supported" it by holding back the crazies in his own party. Obama does a bit of cheerleading in 2013. Proposes some environmental regs with one foot out the door (rejected by a judge and repealed by Trump.)
Toggle Commented Nov 28, 2018 on We Are Not Alone! at JustOneMinute
Again, the press shoots itself in the foot, or maybe in the head. In the foot would be a problem because they couldn't walk. In the head? Damage to an unused organ.
Toggle Commented Nov 15, 2018 on When The Elephants Scuffle... at JustOneMinute
Welcome Garden Gnerd, Garden Gnomes, and anyone else who can sneak past security. So far, mostly so good. For anyone having problems, my correct email is:
Toggle Commented Nov 15, 2018 on Let's Fly Under The Bridge! at JustOneMinute
Testing... Oh, I am a BAD man!
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2018 on Mueller With Momentum at JustOneMinute
Good point. Of course, Wang was not offering those odds, nor (I assume) would he be crazy enough to do so. He is simply saying that based on his modeling, Clinton has a 99% chance of winning. Fine, have at it, and model away. What he has *not* been saying is something like "Based on my modeling of polls there was less than a 1% chance that Comey would announce that the FBI had unearthed compelling evidence of Hillary-ordered obstruction on newly discovered emails that Abedin stashed instead of shredded". Or the opposite - "Hey, nothing to see here, ooops.) Wang, like the rest of us,may have had an opinion as to the likelihood of such a bombshell exploding and its possible effect on the race, but it is simply not in his models (nor, I presume, Silver's.) But it would surely be in the back (and front) of the mind of any bookie. See, for example, the giant market exhale this morning following the actual Comey announcement.
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Ferrari? C'mon.
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"Pretty in Pink" came out in 1986 so that is when America was class conscious? Hmm, speaking as a Jersey Boy here, "Rag Doll" went to #1 in 1964: Everybody! "When she was just a kid, her clothes were hand-me-downs (Hand-me-down) They always laughed at her when she came into town Called her rag doll Little rag doll, such a pretty face should be dressed in lace Ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh (Shag rag doll) I'd change her sad rags into glad rags if I could (If I could) My folks won't let me cause they say that she's no good..." If I had a theory it would be that the Vietnam era, especially the domestic protests, temporarily concealed a lot of that class consciousness. But I bet with a bit of thought we could dredge up plenty of pop culture references to the boy or girl from the wrong side of the tracks. What is teen angst without a thwarted love?
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Regarding the notion that Zimmerman ignored the police dispatcher: The dispatcher's suggestion does not have the force of law. But more importantly, it is not clear that Zimmerman ignored him - it was only after he got out of the car that the dispatcher noticed that GZ may have gotten out of the car. From the transcript: Dispatcher: Are you following him? Zimmerman: Yeah Dispatcher: Ok, we don't need you to do that. Zimmerman: Ok Zimmerman says he headed back to his car and was jumped by Martin. As to the truth, well, it was rainy and I wasn't there; nor was anyone who saw and survived the entire fight, except Zimmerman. But the state does not even seem able to prove that Zimmerman ignored the legally irrelevant 'suggestion' from the dispatcher.
I am concerned that if you have to ask you are one, but... For "Derp" we need to take our talents to South Park: "Derp" (verb) Created by: Matt Stone and Trey Parker (Creators of South Park) First word ever used: BASEketball (movie, 1998) The Cross-Eyed origin: South Park Season 3 Episode 3, The Succubus, 1999 (Character Mr. Derp, Mr. Derp hit himself in the head with a hammer until his eyes crossed for a moment) Their own Definition: (The Succubus Commentary, 2003) Matt Stone: Derp is a term we came up with when we were shooting for BASEketball for all the dumb jokes, it was a "Derp Joke" Trey Parker: Like someone if a joke sort of like in The Animal or any of those Rob Schneider movies when someone like bumps into a wall or whatever it's like "Deeerrrpp" Matt Stone: You could like see the joke coming like miles away. Trey Parker: There was a lot of Derp in BASEketball too we were kind of embarrassed about it. Matt Stone: We call them "Derp Jokes" END EXCERPT Derpy Hooves of My Little Pony got in on the act because she is cross-eyed, but accept no imitations.
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As to what the bill implicitly acknowledges, I would wait until we could see the draft of the bill. If it opens with a clear explanation of Congressional intent as of 1996 *not* to allow trillion dollar platinum coins, continues with a technical correction, and closes with an assurance that the new bill is only to silence the rare knuckleheads who can't read and don't think our judges have the sense God gave them, well, I am not sure it will implicity endorse trillion dollar coins.
Toggle Commented Jan 7, 2013 on Mint the Platinum Coin? at Economist's View
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Nice to see the concept of "i" make the transition from physics to politics. And hands up - did anyone actually make it to the end of the Noonan piece? I thought she had 3 paragraphs stretched into 19+7i.
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Re the streamlined refinancing proposal: "Hubbard estimates (pdf) that the average borrower would save $2,800, and that the total savings would come to $70 billion." Well, then, Maguire estimates that the total cost to investors (some of whom may be foreign) would be $70 billion. "It would function, effectively, like a $70 billion tax cut, albeit one that actually makes Fannie and Freddie money. Most studies suggest that tax cuts have a stimulative multiplier, meaning the economy would grow by more than $70 billion. " And Maguire estimates that the $70 billion of income lost to investors would function like a tax increase. It may be that the mix of foreign and high-net worth investors whose high coupon mortgages are unexpectedly re-fied away have a lower propensity to consume than the beneficiaries of this wealth transfer, but the net effect will be much less than a $70 billion tax cut.
Toggle Commented Aug 1, 2012 on 'Fire Ed DeMarco' at Economist's View
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A serial sock puppeteer whining about a sock puppet mocking him. Irony is running thick. Can't tell the players without an IP address. Sometimes even then.
Toggle Commented Apr 29, 2012 on Feed The Beast at JustOneMinute