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Kallidromos
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Wrong again. It is 8=1,618*5 I should quit working beyond 2:00 am Kallidromos
Correction. It is 1987-1929=58. The rest of the math in my comment is OK. By the way do you see what a funny number 58 is? 5+8=13 a Fibonacci number and of course , 8=1,1618*5, approximately. Kallidromos
Since we're at it 1929-1987=58 58*0.382=22.15 1987+22.15=2009.15 voila!! February 2010 at the latest we are due for a major event Fibonaccology says. South that is, all the way to the Mississippi delta. Kallidromos
There is a reason for this discrepancy. Short term no matter where you start on a financial time-series it progresses in nearly ideal Elliott fashion. As the pattern evolves, waves become more complex in an accelerated fashion. A cursory look at the time series of ,say the Dow since 1928 ,the pattern becomes more complex in an accelerated fashion. If you assume in your counting, that waves of the same degree should sub-segment in ideal Elliott fashion you would be making three mistakes: 1. Increasing complexity demands a different approach because the number of waves per one higher degree wave changes from 1.618^3 to exp(1,13) as a function of the number of waves in the whole pattern. 2. The impulsive waves increase in complexity. 3. Corrections are at best equal in complexity to the preceding impulse and usually one ore two degrees more complex. We live in an inflationary Elliott universe and conventional counting doesn't take this into account. Therefore, the analyst would be right short term and sometimes wrong long term. I have been working on this for some time and I believe that I will be able to post my theoretical work on my blog for comments and criticism by the Elliott community before Christmas. In the meantime, I must say that the future looks dismal for my home country, Greece. My personal non-classic analysis, that I have come to believe in after many trials and tribulations over the past 15 years, shows that the end of the crisis points to ASE FTSE20, around 900 (currently at 2200) over the next year and ultimately after a rebound to around 2300, to the astounding number of 240 plus minus 100, sometime in the next three years. This means that Greece will default. Expect geopolitical turbulence in the Aegean shortly after we hit this point. Today the salaries of the doctors of a large public metropolitan hospital in Athens were seized by pharmaceutical companies toward the state debt to them. God bless you all and may you come intact out of this crisis. Kallidromos
No free week in Europe Yelnick Cut me in for three clicks. You deserve it anyway. I will ask again to block insulting comments and comments with inappropriate language. The subject of Elliot waves and derived methodologies is far too beautiful to be mixed with scatology. Sincerely, Kallidromos
Toggle Commented Nov 5, 2009 on Free Week! at Planet Yelnick
Dear Yelnick, I understand that you are using the late Zoran's terminology which is not exactly obvious to everybody because Zoran's writings are not avilable in their entirety. I have seen a few blog posts but not much else. How is a bifurcation to be understood here? Do you mean that there are two possibilities available: 1. Dollar up to 7500, then continuation of the down trend and 2. Dollar up to 7500, small oscillation (corrective) and then up it goes? or do you have something entirely different in mind? Is there a chaos theoretical tool available , to quantity the approach to a bifurcation point in state space? Sincerely, Kallidromos
Obviously Mr. Crow did not understand what I wrote and more importantly I certainly meant no offense, to the country I consider a second homeland. He is not alone in mourning a loss. One young woman that died in the Twin Towers was from Crete and I know her family, another young man from Greece also died that day. My point is this: There are external threats to the US in the form of the likes of Al Quaeda, and there are internal threats that sap the US through their greed. The third point is that the economy will recover when the huge productive potential of the US goes back in high gear under a new set of rules, closer to what the founding fathers had in mind.
Toggle Commented Oct 20, 2009 on The New Normal at Planet Yelnick
I see all these numbers and charts and sophisticated analysis and I wonder? When are these guys, I mean the good ole' US of A going to realize that you have to make stuff (refrigerators, clothes, shoes, wheat, corn, computers etc etc etc) the old fashioned honest way, when the customer was respected and got goods that lasted for a fair price, for the economy to get better. You know, all these charts are telling the same story. You can't distort ethics and values beyond recognition and expect to prosper. I also wonder who's worse; Al Quaeda or the Americans who undermine their own country through outsourcing in an effort to maximize (as opposed to optimize) their returns. Don't they like what they have? Do they think that it will ever be possible for Americans to work for Chinese wages? I also believe that the charts are telling us that history has a geometry; a complicated fractal geometry that is telling a very frightening story. There is financial bubble under way that will eventually will drive the Dow to the 20-30 K, or even higher within the next 5-8 years as an ending diagonal fifth wave of a fifth wave that also develops as a diagonal triangle. It is only then, that the current system will become untenable as the norm of economic behavior and the geopolitical repercussions will be immense.
Toggle Commented Oct 19, 2009 on The New Normal at Planet Yelnick
Shouldn't the B under the W in STU's chart be a C?. Frustration has strange ways of popping through sometimes.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2009 on ZZ Top at Planet Yelnick