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Kate
Sydney Australia
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This is most definitely smoke haze near the pole. That brownish layer is unmistakable to an Aussie
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2015/2015cam2_1.jpg
PIOMAS July 2015
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Just like last month the 2015 trend line has increased the gap with pre-2010 years, with the exceptio...
@Jim, it sounds better when you say 'north pole' hehehe
and it's not an alien, it's SANTA!
ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...
There are paw prints at the north pole. I know the image will change but they were there when I last looked :)
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2015/2015cam2_1.jpg
ASI 2015 update 4: massive heat
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has...
@Colorado Bob
I was just about to post that link :)
Prodigious melting this year, and I think with the pack melt, both combined stats will make a truly remarkable year.
2015 SIPN Sea Ice Outlook: June report
The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2015 Arctic sea ice extent, based o...
Lots of new melt ponds over the last few days
Esp for buoys 10,11 and 12
http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy12/camera
And like Susan I've been watching the huge swirls in the Pacific sending warm air north and cold air out seemingly pushed out the other side ( so to speak :)
I think melting will be pretty significant this year, maybe not a record but worryingly close.
Melt Pond May 2015
May is the month when melt ponds first start to form on the floes of the Arctic sea ice pack. Melt ponds are important because they soak up more sunlight than the ice would, speeding up the melting process and thus preconditioning the sea ice. When there is lots of melt ponding, something I cal...
Now this is interesting
http://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/SatelliteArctic/Lincoln/20150319TERR.jpg
Early record, late record
10 days ago I posted a blog post called Mad max. The title - referring to a very early maximum sea ice extent - ended with a question mark, because it was far from sure whether the preliminary max reached on February 15th would remain standing. This is because of the oscillatory nature of the f...
I'm pretty sure the 'dad' was a typo for 'sad'
but anyway...
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: August report
The last Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, base...
Excellent update, thank you Neven.
Everyone must be on the forum...If I go there time seems to fall into a black hole and no work gets done hahaha
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: August report
The last Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, base...
Lots of movement on land to worry about, old ice on the move.
http://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/SatelliteArctic/Joekelbugt/20140820AQUA.jpg
ASI 2014 update 7: late momentum
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
@Ostepop, if I had the money that would be an awesome cruise, stuck or not :)
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: July report
The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, ba...
@Ostepop
The current wind pattern, carrying large amounts of smoke, is not being kind to your prediction. I hope the link shows you what I'm seeing
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-46.75,75.76,512
SEARCH 2014 Sea Ice Outlook: July report
The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, ba...
That's a lot of dark matter :(
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
Speaking of smoke and soot, the latest sat pics from west coast Greenland are looking a little dark. Is that what I think it is?
http://www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/SatelliteArctic/Disko/20140723TERR.jpg
ASI 2014 update 5: low times
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
I agree @George
I think a big melt is on the cards. Lots of warm air, currents are right to impact outlying ice, around the entire Arctic. The highs and lows are feeding in relatively warm air ( at all levels by the looks of things ). The next week will be important. The push ( wind/currents) ATM is dividing the remaining ice into two halves. Both halves are being eroded on the coasts and I do believe soon from within the pack.
ASI 2014 update 3: here comes the Sun (again)
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2013 period (NSIDC has...
I wonder which will come first
Climate change killing millions each year
or
The lack of viable antibiotics killing millions each year
ah, choices choices so many choices
In memoriam: Albert A. Bartlett
This is only indirectly linked to Arctic sea ice, and something I found out today, but a little over two months ago emeritus Professor of Physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder, Albert Allen Bartlett, passed away at the age of 90. Bartlett was famous for the following quote: "The gre...
Super Typhoon Haiyan dispersed an awful lot of heat very quickly. Typhoons/cyclones are the only very fast way of moving heat between ocean, land and atmosphere aren't they?
Arctic sea ice and jet stream changes
It's the most interesting and actual of all potential risks tied to Arctic sea ice loss and could turn out to be one of the surest signs of changing weather patterns. Which explains the growth in interest and research. One of the latest scientific papers on this subject, Influence of Arctic sea...
My gut feeling is that PIOMAS is going to bottom out earlier than usual this year. Northern ocean areas are very warm, the ice is weak and vulnerable. There's been a significant increase in pollution carried from continental Asia up north and the jet stream is wobbling :(
PIOMAS October 2013
It took a bit longer because of the shutdown, but here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Mind you, I expect another update with October date soon as well. Here's Wipneus' ...
Yes, I'm eating crow pie :) I sort of wish it wasn't so. I honestly don't think anything positive will happen until the first ice free summer and then people will notice. I know it will be too late but maybe regulation then will seem like a good idea.
It's getting cold up there, it will be a big year extend wise but it really is like watching a goldfish's last gasps as it lays on the shag-pile carpet.
Crowd-Source Prediction of September Sea Ice Extent (August report)
In mid-July through early August, participants on the Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) blog posted 66 individual predictions for the mean NSIDC September Arctic sea ice extent. The median value of these 66 predictions is 3.6 million km2, with an interquartile range (approximately the middle 50%) from 2.92 t...
Neven, you are so right.
The Arctic needs more remote sensing, more on-site resources.
What it needs is a billionaire! Forget politics, the arctic needs a benefactor.
Forget trying to change world opinion; all this needs is someone with the right connections to get science done.
Musk, Gates, Buffett whoever...
Your blog is going global, use this new influence...what do you think?
Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
Here's something that might be of interest to US citizens who follow what's going on in the Arctic and have ideas about what kind of science and technology is necessary to increase knowledge: a short questionnaire by the Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic of the National Re...
@ Dan
- and the media agenda is dictated by the Murdoch press - we only have 1 national newspaper, and it's Murdoch's!
OK, yes he does own newspapers but more and more the average person doesn't use newspapers 100% of the time, it's social media that is more important ( Twitter, facebook, blogs etc )
and you might want to read this article because Murdoch is out of touch and thus not very effective at shifting the debate either politically or socially
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-12/chen-media-influence-in-election-campaigns/4879730
Perception of the Arctic 2
Like I've written in the previous blog post with the same title, I'm not just interested in the science/ observation of Arctic sea ice and the consequences of its loss, but also in the question how and how far these events are finding their way to the collective consciousness. Are people becomi...
@Bob
Hmm, as an Aussie I'd say you're wrong on so many levels it's not funny, and as a contributor to this blog I'd say very little of what you know is true.
Australia sells coal and yes we use it. But we also have a carbon tax ( which will be a trading scheme if Labor gets in and nothing if the Libs get in ). Pray for a Rudd government
Murdoch owns some of the press, but his influence is actually quite small in Aust. I think you're thinking of the US, which is the media he IS trying to influence.
Climate change in Australia is not wholly bad. Many areas in the north will become better at food production ie northern NT and central QLD. I think we are also prepared to change agricultural practises far more than other countries. For example our cotton farmers are moving to hemp.
Our solar industry is strong and will get better. We have government schemes for solar panels and very good prices when households feed back into the grid.
Australia is certainly not the most vulnerable country. You might be thinking of Bangladesh, or the islands in the Pacific, or even central US ( which relies on the tropical wave from Africa being stable and persistent ).
So no, we have faced the truth and are probably better poised than most countries to spend money on solutions. We didn't collapse during the GFC if you recall.
Perception of the Arctic 2
Like I've written in the previous blog post with the same title, I'm not just interested in the science/ observation of Arctic sea ice and the consequences of its loss, but also in the question how and how far these events are finding their way to the collective consciousness. Are people becomi...
@Gerhard "In August is the time of basal melt"
Is that trend due to SST?
Third storm
Are we getting used to this? After the persistent cyclone in May and June, and the spiffy, but short-lived cyclone of two weeks ago, the Arctic is visited by yet another intense storm that goes below 980 hPa. In fact, according to Environment Canada it is currently at 976 hPa, which is lower tha...
The ice is behaving like mushed up flotsam! A think the ice will continue to melt past the normal time we think and these storms will just keep cropping up.
Third storm
Are we getting used to this? After the persistent cyclone in May and June, and the spiffy, but short-lived cyclone of two weeks ago, the Arctic is visited by yet another intense storm that goes below 980 hPa. In fact, according to Environment Canada it is currently at 976 hPa, which is lower tha...
What happens to the ice when the smoke from all the fires in Russia gets added to the mix?
EOSDIS Worldview is showing a strong feeder band from Russia and it will get sucked into the storm, over very thin ice.
Third storm
Are we getting used to this? After the persistent cyclone in May and June, and the spiffy, but short-lived cyclone of two weeks ago, the Arctic is visited by yet another intense storm that goes below 980 hPa. In fact, according to Environment Canada it is currently at 976 hPa, which is lower tha...
I had a quick look at the SST anomaly figures at Wunderground. Very high anomaly around GL
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Arctic time bombs
While keeping an eye on day-to-day data and speculating about whether 2013 is going to overcome the odds and break last year's records, one tends to forget about the wider implications and what this actually is all about. A tree is incredibly interesting, but in the end it's all about the fore...
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