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Ken Jorgenson
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Damn skippy RFR... The Federal Reserve could pour gasoline on a barrel full of dynamite, sit on top of the barrel, light a cigar and still not see any danger. :-)
Employment Report Keeps Policymakers on Their Toes
Just about everyone (myself included) who ventured a payrolls forecast was crushed by the scant December gain of just 74k. How much should you adjust your outlook on the basis of just this one number? Not much, if at all. It is important to watch for trends in the data, and always keep Barry R...
Jim Grant said, "The Federal Reserve can change how things look but the Federal Reserve cannot change how things are." 'nuf said.
Inflation, Wages, and Policy
As something of a addendum to my last piece, I wanted to follow up on the take-down of the inflation story by Ethan Harris of BAML as reported by Sam Ro at Business Insider. Harris' argument is that there is plenty of slack in the labor market, so there is no reason to worry that wage growth-fu...
Jim Rogers eloquently points out the obvious... The Federal Reserve is powerless to stop their own demise.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-04/jim-rogers-warns-bernanke-has-set-stage-feds-collapse
By supporting decades of Fabian Socialist ideals the Monetarist and Keynesians have sewn the seeds of their own demise. While those shilling for the Federal Reserve (i.e. Tim Duy, John Hillsenrath and Steve Liesman just to name a few) might not talk about it... The Federal Reserve and their fiat currency, the Federal Reserve Note (FRN) is getting ready to be removed as the world's reserve currency. As mondern day Rome burns, physical gold and silver flows from the west to the east and academic shills take victory laps for winning a battle in a war not yet won. :-)
What Comes After the Evans Rule?
Since the last FOMC meeting, market participants have grown cautious about the near term path of monetary policy, sending two year rates higher even as the Fed lowers their expectation of the policy path. Is this entirely justified by the economic data, or is another explanation at work? I sug...
Bernanke cares nothing about his dual mandate... He only cares about the greatest wealth transfer in human history and getting out the door before is QE Ponzi Schemes blow sky high like Fukashima's Reactor # 3
The nuclear winter and fallout from Mr. Bernanke's little experiment will have devastating consequences for US Doll Hair holders. Here is a visual the Federal Reserve's balance sheet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGhOW3DLlow :-)
Inflation, Wages, and Policy
As something of a addendum to my last piece, I wanted to follow up on the take-down of the inflation story by Ethan Harris of BAML as reported by Sam Ro at Business Insider. Harris' argument is that there is plenty of slack in the labor market, so there is no reason to worry that wage growth-fu...
Tim Duy is shilling for a job and is part of the Federal Reserve's office of misinformation. The Federal Reserve is powerless to stop a USD currency crisis and bond market dislocation, but nobody can see it coming?
Central Bankers and Fabian Socialist Statists alike hate debt free money (gold and silver) and will destroy what is left of the USD's roll as the world'sreserve fiat currency.
Got REAL ASSETS... Got gold and silver? :-)
What Comes After the Evans Rule?
Since the last FOMC meeting, market participants have grown cautious about the near term path of monetary policy, sending two year rates higher even as the Fed lowers their expectation of the policy path. Is this entirely justified by the economic data, or is another explanation at work? I sug...
The Federal Reserve has already lost control of the long end of the yield curve. The steepening yields have spiked borrowing costs and slowed the recovery in housing. Refinancing activities have stopped and new home sales will start to slow. The US economy will be in recession in 2014 and the latest Federal Reserve Bubble in the equity market will pop. The US Dollar and currency traders are already pricing in a reversal in tapering by a panicked Yellen led Federal Reserve.
Got gold and silver?
The Beginning of the End for Quantitative Easing
In his final press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced and explained the plan to end the quantitative easing, beginning with a $10 billion reduction in the pace of asset purchases. This policy action is something of a fitting end to Bernanke's tenure, as it marks the exi...
Here is what happens when a debt zombie based economy hooked on monetary heroin (QE) goes into cardiac arrest: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-18/what-happened-last-time-major-central-bank-tapered-qe#comments
The Beginning of the End for Quantitative Easing
In his final press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced and explained the plan to end the quantitative easing, beginning with a $10 billion reduction in the pace of asset purchases. This policy action is something of a fitting end to Bernanke's tenure, as it marks the exi...
I stand by my USD Currency Crisis call as the unexpected black swan event lurking in the shadows. The Federal Reserve might talk as if they've been pumping in $85 billion per month but I'm sure it's been more like $85 billion per month in the front door and $100 billion through the back door (Bank of Israel and/or Bank of Japan) to keep their latest bubble(s) from bursting like all the other financial bubbles they've blown. This bubble will in like all the rest and no matter how hard the Federal Reserve tries you cannot print prosperity. Nominal gains might fool the masses but they don't fool me.
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet will be $4.9 trillion rather than $5 trillion at the end of 2014 w/ the $10 billion per month taper. Raising rates... Yeah right, in the middle of a fiat currency crisis and recession, not!
The Beginning of the End for Quantitative Easing
In his final press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced and explained the plan to end the quantitative easing, beginning with a $10 billion reduction in the pace of asset purchases. This policy action is something of a fitting end to Bernanke's tenure, as it marks the exi...
Can we please try to stop the "taper talk" Tim?
While some members of the Federal Reserve may want to withdraw monitary heroin from this debt zombie monster they've created anyone who hasn't been living in a cave knows that the Federal Reserve has blown a government debt bubble greater than the technology and housing bubble they blew with artificially low interest rates.
The minute the FED slows the morphine drip (flow) the global debt zombie goes into cardiac arrest and we go into a deflationary spiral a larger the Great Depression. The malinvestments created by ZIRP will be obvious to everyone in hindsight and everyone will say, "who could have seen this coming."
The waterfall collapse in the market will panic central planners and the Federal Reserve will do what they always do... Counterfeit more fiat currency, destroy purchasing power of its holders and loose what little credibility it has left. The sooner the Federal Reserve looses its charter the better the world will be!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-16/happy-100th-birthday-fed-live-feed
FOMC Meeting Something of a Nailbiter
Tapering will be on the table at this week's FOMC meeting, but will the Fed take the first step to ending the asset purchase program or let it ride into the new year? Wall Street analysts, economists, and pundits are all over the map on the tapering question, via Supeed Reddy at the Wall Street...
The US Dollar is sick... sick... sick!
We've had 5+ years of out of control fiat currency debasement and a token taper isn't going to do jack to stop the US Dollars waterfall collapse. Does anyone seriously think that the FED can print trillions of dollars out of thin air for 5+ years and not eventually have something bad happen? The next "black swan" is already staring us in the face. It's going to be a collapse in the purchasing power of the US Dollar and a collapse in consumption by the US consumer which makes up 70% of GDP. The shills, charlatans and fraudsters at the Federal Reserve and in the financial media had better start calling a spade a spade... The Federal Reserve broke the US Dollar with this artificial fiat currency debasement scheme and they own the unintended consequences of it!
Buckle up!
Bullard Offers Up The Tiny Taper
The employment report put the December taper squarely on the table. But what about inflation? Does low inflation take the December taper off the table? That is the question I asked last week, and Gavyn Davies at the FT follows up on the theme. Davies draws attention to this line from the FOM...
Bottom Line: The Federal Reserve "would if they could but can't so they won't." The endless mumbo jumbo of will they or won't they is mind numbing. They've underwritten another asset bubble (government debt) and are deathly afraid of the fallout from a slowing the monetary heroin drip into this hedious debt zombie based economy they've created. The Federal Reserve has already sewn the seeds of the next crisis which will be of fiat currency in nature. The US Dollar is in the very initial stages of a crisis as witnessed by the severe weakness post Q3 GDP, employment and consumer confidence data last week. The Federal Reserve is trapped and either sacrifices the fiat currency or risks dislocations in the bond or stock markets destroying confidence and an artificial wealth effect they've spent 5+ years creating and $3 trillion of their balance sheet on. Let history show these academic shills and charlatans for what they truely are... fraudsters!
Bullard Offers Up The Tiny Taper
The employment report put the December taper squarely on the table. But what about inflation? Does low inflation take the December taper off the table? That is the question I asked last week, and Gavyn Davies at the FT follows up on the theme. Davies draws attention to this line from the FOM...
“The whole secret lies in confusing the enemy, so that he cannot fathom our real intent.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
The Federal Reserve is their own enemy. They're confused and cannot fathom the consequences of their actions (i.e. lost of the global reserve currency and a US dollar crisis). All the FED knows how to do is blow asset bubbles. Tech Bubble, Housing Bubble, Government Debt Bubble... What's next for the dead men (FOMC) walking? Better yet... Who cares? It's not like it matters anyway the seeds of the FED's destruction have already been sewn.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-08/taper-timing-its-wsj-vs-nyt
Stronger and Sustainable, but...
The employment report produced a modest upside surprise with a gain of 203k jobs in November, remarkably close to my estimate of 211k from yesterday, which I might as well enjoy because it will never happen again. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 7% while the labor force participation...
The infamous "taper" is like the jackalope, sasquatch and leprechauns...
People talk about them as if they're REAL but in reality they don't exist! The Federal Reserve and people like Tim Duy, John Hillsenrath and every other non-voting regional FED member bank president might yap (jawbone) about if/when the Federal Reserve is going to slow asset purchases but they NEVER talk about who is going to buy the worthless paper sitting on the FED's balance sheet.
The minute the FED announces a reduction in their asset purchases what is left of the "free market" unloads Uncle Gorrilla Notes onto the market spiking borrowing costs to everyone higher, bond prices plummeting and risk assets spiraling lower. It's long past time for the FED to "put up or shut up!" Stop pumping monetary heroin into this debt zombie based economy, let's clear the global markets of the malinvestments the FED has underwritten with their cheap money and artificially low interest rate policies!
Talk is cheap Tim... It's put up or shut up time!
BRING IT!
Stronger and Sustainable, but...
The employment report produced a modest upside surprise with a gain of 203k jobs in November, remarkably close to my estimate of 211k from yesterday, which I might as well enjoy because it will never happen again. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 7% while the labor force participation...
Sorry Tim but even a $20 billion per/month taper isn't going to do much of anything. Should the Federal Reserve surprise and token taper the economy could stall or more likely the government bond and equity market bubbles will bursts destroying Bernanke's fabulous wealth effect. Who is going to buy US Government debt when the Federal Reserve slows (as if they can), the Bank of Japan? They have no problem destroying their fiat currency. Hopefully the FOMC makes a mistake and tapers forcing the crowd to all sell at once spiking the $TNX into the mid-three percent range or even better mid-four percent. Yellen will be forced to walk back the token taper and double if not triple the $85 billion in monitary life support the debt zombie the global financial system has become. The Fed tapers,market's dislocate, the Federal Reserve is forced to step back in loosing any and all credibility (as if they had any to begin with) by starting WE in a few months to tame the bond markets. As many have said: this grand experiment is going to end badly. I'm looking forward to watching market forces destroy this misguided attempt to save the world from creative destruction. The interventionist might look like Rock stars today but in fullness of time history will prove them to be Fraudstars!
Some things just make you go hmmn:http://youtu.be/Ab4yqaZ7GAU
Ahead of the Employment Report
Another first Friday, another employment report. Although the general expectation is that the Fed holds its currently policy in place, there is speculation that the monetary policymakers could pull the trigger on tapering this month if we see another employment report that could be deemed suffi...
Bernanke, Yellen and the rest of the lunatics running the central bank asylum are raving liars. Bernanke got on 60 Minutes:http://youtu.be/LxSv2rnBGA8 and told bald face lies about how he wasn't going to monetize US Government debt and how he could pull back liquidity in less than 15 minutes.
What he didn't say was that he was that he was going to underwrite another asset bubble, create massive misallocation of capital and create a bond market dislocation(s) when and if they ever decide to attempt to taper. The Federal Reserve is gambling with their charter and the global reserve fiat currency.
The lunatics we supposed to taper and yet we need more liquidity http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html pumped into the global financial market or deflationary forces will reassert themselves and blow up the ponzi scheme the Fed has created to artificially pump up asset prices.
History will judge these text book theory interventionists showing them exactly for what they are shills and charlatans. THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES! ;-)
Desperate to Taper
The minutes of the October FOMC meeting leave little doubt that the Fed increasingly desires to end the asset purchase program, enough so to contemplate tapering regardless of seeing satisfactory improvement in labor markets. It is that desire - or perhaps desperation - that puts an element of ...
The Federal Reserve is a prisoner of own device. The path to hell is paved with good intentions and while everyone celebrates yet another bubble (tech, housing, government debt) underwitten by the Federal Reserve barbarions move closer to the gate. Market forces and history will punish interventionists with economic theories and models disconnceted from reality and the laws of mathmatics.
Last thing I remember, I was running for the door,
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before,
"Relax," said the night man, "We are programmed to receive,
You can check out anytime you like... but you can never leave"
Desperate to Taper
The minutes of the October FOMC meeting leave little doubt that the Fed increasingly desires to end the asset purchase program, enough so to contemplate tapering regardless of seeing satisfactory improvement in labor markets. It is that desire - or perhaps desperation - that puts an element of ...
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