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Mark Kosir
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2,732,000 km^2. I'm visual and relying heavily on graph curves.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
I'll say this, as I've had many recent conversations with friends and colleagues about Arctic ice and AGW in general...
The existence of the issues have made their way into the collective consciousness, however the gloss-over media presentation has slowed the impact that deep facts would make. 80% of the perception around me personally can be summed up as this: "Warming exists, yes we will have an impact on climate/weather globally, however the timescale is a century, and not decades, or years".
Now this is a sad consequence, however perception is reality (one only needs to look at, for example, the stock markets). It is easy to be informed when likeminded folks collect together and share knowledge. The fast majority of working folks have an attention span to line of sight events (eg, what they're doing on the weekend) rather than events just beyond the horizon.
Nevertheless, this topic makes its way into conversation over beers and dinner when I'm around. I see it, its scary. Other folks are slowly waking up, but most will miss the event horizon.
It also doesn't take long to accept the new normal, which is again a function of typical line of sight thinking/perceptions. Saddest of all, is the fact that I'm in Canada, and the arctic is just next door. If our population doesn't hear the alarm bells.... who would?
Perception of the Arctic
There was a time, not too long ago, when I didn't know the Arctic existed. Sure, I knew there was a North Pole and that it was cold there, but somehow I always thought that the Arctic and the Antarctic were the same thing, that someone had forgotten to add the Ant-. And of course, polar bears ...
crandles - yep 2007 has a longer period, tho I was zeroing in on winter season temps...
and Kris, hmm, ur right 2006 does "kick it" with a huge temp anomaly in January, but for duration its short lived (consecutive temps for winter 2005-2006 seem to be around 80ish days in total duration above mean.
February 2012 Open Thread
There's a poll in the right hand bar running until February 8th for predicting the Cryosphere Today maximum sea ice area number. Don't be afraid to share your prediction in the comments of this thread: 2012 Maximum Area Pool --- We are entering the final phase of the freezing season. After that...
Hi all,
Just surfing a bit on the graphs page, and noticed winter 2011-2012 seems to be setting a record...
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
As per graphs, since 1958 daily mean temps appear to have set a record for number of days consistently above the mean. I dont have the time it takes to drill down to the exact number of days, but seems to be around 95 days running. Amazing!
February 2012 Open Thread
There's a poll in the right hand bar running until February 8th for predicting the Cryosphere Today maximum sea ice area number. Don't be afraid to share your prediction in the comments of this thread: 2012 Maximum Area Pool --- We are entering the final phase of the freezing season. After that...
I'm with Neven on his post. Mis-information and propaganda are some of the strongest weapons that can be used to drive the masses to an opinion (or to mask the truth).
It happens during wars and atrocities, it happens when politicians want to misdirect and misinform, and it happens when big business wants to keep getting away with whatever they are doing for profit. World War II, Iraq invasion, cigarette industry... its a long list.
To call out the propaganda machine is not a bad thing. Its a call to wake up, to not be lazy, to do some research, to understand the facts, and then to do something about it in the face of powerful people and a lot of money. After all, this blog, for the 2 years that I've been following (quietly), should have that purpose.... call out drastic changes happening in our world by us, and to inform. Telling readers about the mis-informers out there is also useful information.
The sarcasm just gives it some punch. Thanks Neven, I read your blog daily and have learned volumes over two years, from you and your contributors.
And now, a word for our sponsors
We are all equally responsible for the melting of the Arctic sea ice. But to paraphrase the pigs in Animal Farm: Some are more responsible than others. Some will do their utmost to make sure the greatest geophysical experiment of all time is conducted to the very end. They are doing everything i...
Awww... Poor Jeff Masters. I read his blog regularly. In his defense, he's more into weather, and not so much into climate. LOL
Open Thread 6
I think this is going to be the last Open Thread. Things are getting really interesting now as we approach Arctic sea ice maximum extent and area. Most of us are already awake, but still in chill-out mode: I think I have found a way to upgrade to a paid TypePad version without having to take a...
Just reading some scattered postings regarding 2011 minimum predictions, and comparisons between 2007 and 2011. I just started poking around MODIS. There are a number of good ice coverage and ice mobility comparisons. Take the below for example:
2007:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2007055/crefl1_143.A2007055173000-2007055173500.500m.jpg
2011:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2011054/crefl1_143.A2011054170500-2011054171000.500m.jpg
Yes, I'm a day later for 2007 (cloud cover!)... but 2011 definitely appears more mobile at this point, with lots of "scaling" near the west coast of Greenland. Like others, I'm interested in the first images of the Nares Strait, and the state of ice bridge at this point.
Its all scary and mesmerizing at the same time :(...
Open Thread 6
I think this is going to be the last Open Thread. Things are getting really interesting now as we approach Arctic sea ice maximum extent and area. Most of us are already awake, but still in chill-out mode: I think I have found a way to upgrade to a paid TypePad version without having to take a...
Thanks for the historical information FrankD... I'll go review images from 2009... didnt realize that the bulge has been around for so long.
Open Thread 5
We're still hibernating, but with one eye open. Global sea ice area is stretching for a new low (hat-tip Derek Moran): I've converted the CT global sea ice area data to a spreadsheet and here are the minima for the previous six years (hat-tip Phil.): 2005: 14.732 (Feb 10) 2006: 14.392 (...
Hi all...
I've been a silent follower for a while, so I thought I'd just add an ice-related comment. I don't see much related to Antarctic ice status (yes, a bit unrelated), but I've been watching MODIS for the last week or so, and it seems that the Ross Ice Shelf will soon start calving. See the link:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A110351110
A crack appears to be forming, and breakoff is imminent.
Maybe someone else can also comment on the rest of the ice shelf. Depending on the angle of the sun, it seems other larger cracks are forming (or am I just seeing things?)
Open Thread 5
We're still hibernating, but with one eye open. Global sea ice area is stretching for a new low (hat-tip Derek Moran): I've converted the CT global sea ice area data to a spreadsheet and here are the minima for the previous six years (hat-tip Phil.): 2005: 14.732 (Feb 10) 2006: 14.392 (...
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Feb 4, 2011
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