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Henry
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Thanks K eotw. Antarctic sea ice extents are well above normal, but they variance around the mean is also less, so not as abnormal down there as the low extents in the Arctic. Further, there is a strange ice phenomena that one pole seems to gain ice while another loses as there is a statistically valid argument that the global sea ice numbers varies less than the numbers for each pole. Weird right? There are models for it, but I am a bit sick of being attacked so I will hope you can learn to find peer reviewed articles and actually read them. Hmmmm, global sea ice right about average today: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
I didn't cite Anthony Watts, I used a very useful tool he happened to create. I disagree with him on just about everything, that said, his science pages are very good compilations. Michael Mann did not change his mind, at least in anything I read. I read his paper of a year or so ago and he talks specifically about the solar forcing and climate. (1998 paper: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v392/n6678/abs/392779a0.html ; 2011 review http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-10-05003.1 ) Kevin - I did mis-speak, I was looking at the NRL HYCOM data and felt the concentration was increasing prior to the storm (see the 30 day animation: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticice_nowcast_anim30d.gif). That section of lower concentration ice near the pole has certainly spread but it looks like it may stay contained by older ice and actually might add to extent at least for the 15% models. I also note that most of the ice near the edges in that animation seems pretty solid (80%+ extent) thus ice movement might not be that high from this storm. Time will tell. Finally, I will note that each of my posts has cited to peer reviewed data and actual gov data and no one that has called me a troll has questioned any of it. Thanks. Trying to hang in there. As a PhD I know that science can be brutal for those outside, even to the smallest extent, the direct lockstep mainstream. You might want to buy this Mann article as well. The PDO and NAO may be switching to cooling phases, which could be interesting for our climate models in the Northern Hemisphere: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/326/5957/1256.short
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Joe- Absolutely right if the ice moves in that way. I have followed the ice near the pole has had several close calls to becoming open water all summer that would really lower extent. That said, before the storm hit that ice was increasing in thickness and might not be as available to wind driven movement as it would normally be this time of year because of the cool weather above 80N. Time will tell.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
And last post to Kevin - How can this be trolling when I showed the prior poster the actual government data to answer his questions?
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin- Get over it, these are not cherry picks. Look at the real data. Climate4you.com and woodfortrees.com has good compilations as does solen.info on the solar data. Show real data and quit trolling. This is a science board.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Oh, and further global average temps are dropping and have been since 2002, and have not risen since mid-90's. I am not commenting on global warming here, just saying that we are returning to historic norms based on the real data: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/web_figures/hadcrut4_annual_global.png
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
Look at the facts, this is a science board. Also, see why I make the prediction at the end of the post: 1) people drowned in floods? Storm size frequency in in US. Historic low hurricane activity: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bJhUmJyxrQs/ULy7NL1QbAI/AAAAAAAACQw/RlSJLqrsz5Y/s1600/hurrdrou0613.jpg Historic low tornado activity: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/torngraph-big1.png Lower than average severe weather: http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html 2) Sea ice extent/Temp above 80N. Temp above freezing above 80N at historic low (great compilation 1958-2013): http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/dmi_80ntemp_animation_1961-2013.gif Sea ice extent might be returning to normal: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php (multiyear sea ice is a game changer for increasing extent and area) 3) Wildfire activity very average, highest years for wildfire number were all in the 1980's: http://wildland-fires.findthedata.org/ 4) Antarctic sea ice extent above normal and at or near historic high: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png Why do I think things are returning to normal? I believe the sun is the major climate driver, particularly in the Arctic, and we are moving to a more normal quieter sun (coming off the "modern maxima" for sun activity). Very interesting that the sun folks (Michael Mann himself was once a huge supporter of sun/climate driver) predicted that the low solar cycle would start a change in global temp, and why wouldnt that start in the Arctic if solar driven? http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
The question is what is driving these storms as they do seem to be a new feature. The energy of a storm comes from the temp and pressure differential across the storm and this could presage a change. Based on temp this year it looks like the Arctic might be moving back to historic norms of multiyear ice after the low of 2007. This change back to the old ways could be the change. The more things change the more they stay the same. Betting the historic average over a new normal is generally the safe bet.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on Third storm at Arctic Sea Ice
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May 1, 2010