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Phil263
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Correct: New extent minimum ( according to JAXA 13 09 2015) : 4,268,045 sqkm. 2011 minimum was 4,269,199 on 9th Sept. This double dip looks very much like 2010!
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm about ready to call the 8th the minimum in JAXA--today's update will do it for me if there's no increase. The 2015 minimum extent value (JAXA flavor, of course) would then be 4,358,918 km2, Kevin, I think you are right about calling the minimum, but the minimum value on JAXA was 4,279, 543 sqkm on the 8th; which puts 2015 in 4th position on the scoreboard behind 2012, 2007 and 2011 (by a whisker!).
Toggle Commented Sep 12, 2015 on PIOMAS September 2015 at Arctic Sea Ice
2014 MINIMUM extent: 5,215,532 sqkm on August 30 ? May be or may be not, but likely very close to it! This would put 2014 in Number 8 position, the highest minimum since 2006.
Toggle Commented Sep 1, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven Thank you for the weekly updates and the good work again this season. I haven't been contributing too much to the site this season, but i am still checking the ice on the daily basis. "Un-eventful" rather than "boring" is how I would describe the 2014 melting season. Nothing is boring about nature! I think this is the "rebound" we all sort of expected, but we might be in for nasty surprises in the coming years!
Toggle Commented Aug 25, 2014 on ASI 2014 update 8: neck and neck at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Lord Soth I am aware that IJIS has now two versions for its graphs. I agree with you that Version 2 is more accurate; but for the sake of consistency, I think Version 1 is a better gauge at least until the end of this season as predictions and comparisons were made on the basis of Version 1.
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
If Sep 12 was indeed the minimum for SIE IJIS, 2013 did not quite make it under 5 million. The figure for Sep 12 was revised upwards to 5,000,313!!!
Toggle Commented Sep 14, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
SIE now under 5 million (IJIS Version 1 pending correction): 4,997,188 on Sep 12
Toggle Commented Sep 13, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
IJIS SIE is up a tad for the 10th. Could have reached the minimum on Sep 9: 4,831,603 ( in Version 2)??? However Version 1 is still down for Sep 10 to 5,069,219... SIA (CT) is also up slightly on Sept 9 from 3.571 to 3.575 Minimum? 2013 is still higher than 2009 by about 150 k.
Toggle Commented Sep 11, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh at Arctic Sea Ice
2013 has just past 2009 minimum SIE (bar a correction!) 2009 minimum: 5,249 k, SIE 2/9/2013: 5,240 k SIA is still well above the 2009 minimum though (3,424 k). I agree with John above and cannot see that SIa will drop by another 300 k this year.
@John Christensen 5.1- 5.3 million for September average extent sounds like a reasonable expectation, not too far off 2009 (5.24 million).My prediction was 4.9 million in July down from 5.4 in May/June Hopefully, JAXA will be back within the next few days, otherwise we might miss the minimum on that particular gauge!
Looks like IJIS/JAXA is on the blink again! No SIE update for August 27...
Toggle Commented Aug 28, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi Neven No worries. I still enjoy reading the blog, in particular your excellent bi-weekly updates
Toggle Commented Aug 25, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven Just a quick word of feedback. I miss the discussion on the day to day SI evolution we used to have at this time of year on this blog. I know you have set up a separate forum, but it is not as user friendly[for me!] and I cannot log in... It is also very confusing and time consuming to have to look in different places.
Toggle Commented Aug 25, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin Wonder of wonders! DMI is actually, visibly (though only by a pixel or two) above the seasonal norm, for the first time in months. Which DMI graph are you referring to? The DMI 30% extent is still well below the margin of error.It's actually been dropping sharply in the last few weeks, bar an uptick yesterday. I am surprised that this drop doesn't show on the 15% extent JAXA gauge.
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
IJIS/JAXA has not updated since Aug 16. Masie hasn't updated since Day 229 (Aug 17?). What is the problem? The IJIS site is showing daily maps until Aug 21,so I am surprised they do not have the data...
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
In the absence of regular SIE update from IJIS/JAXA, we have to rely on visuals to evaluate the progression of the melt. Comparing the uniBremen visualts between 15 August and 20 August ,one notes the following: 1. Overall, the melt does not seem to have progressed much, particularly near Severnaya Zemlya where the Northern Route is still blocked and the ice seems to be holding out 2. There is a clear refreeze of the central pack North of 80N, particularly North of Svalbard 3. I notice some ice in the middle of Hudson Bay that wasn't there last week, probably drift ice rather than re-freeze. 4. There is a noticeable melt in the NW passage but it seems that the passage will remain closed at its Western end ( between Banks and QE Islands)
Toggle Commented Aug 22, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
Anyboby knows what's happening to IJIS/JAXA? They haven't updated since the 16th... @ toby Like yourself, I reckoned on a 4.5m m^2 this year - it may still squeak down to that, but I am reckoning on a 4th or 5th lowest ever. I note that while SIE (Jaxa) is currently tied up with 2008 & 2010 (at least it was on the 16th !), SIA (CT) is well below these two years (3.66 & 3.91 respectively); in fact it is currently below 2009(3.94). You have to go back to 2006 (4.38) to find a higher SIA at the same date ( Day 6274). Even if 2013 ends up in 6th place for minimum SIE ( around 4.9-5.0, behind 2012, 2007,2011, 2008 & 2010), it is likely to end up in 7th place for minimum SIA (around 3.5)
Toggle Commented Aug 20, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 7: cold and cloudy at Arctic Sea Ice
Looking at the latest UniBreen map, two things strike me: 1. There is a largeish hole well within 85N, North of Franz Joseph land. This is a first time I 've seen "free" water so far North. I bet that will refreeze pretty quickly so late in the season. 2.I notice what looks like a refreezing fringearound the whole ice pack. Or is it melting fringe? Also, the SIE graph from UniBremen shows a flattening of the curve, unlike JAXA and DMI. I thought JAXA and UniBremen both got their data from AMSR-2. Am I missing anything?
Toggle Commented Aug 18, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 6: major slowdown at Arctic Sea Ice
Well deserved praise from this Guardian article. Well done! This site is a great source knowledge and I particularly appreciate your balanced open-minded approach to the current Arctic situation. As you rightly say even if 2o13 is not as dramatic as 2012, it is equally interesting and probably as important. It also teaches all of us that humility and caution are fundamentally required attitudes in scientific observation and research.
Who thinks the Northern passage will open this year? Who thinks the NW passage (Northern & southern routes) will open? There's some hard core ice blocking the N passage near Severnaya Zemlya that doesn't look like it's going anywher. On the other hand, ice in the northen channel in the CA seems to have thinned up dramatically in the last few weeks!
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2013 on ASI 2013 update 6: major slowdown at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven Excellent and realistic review of the current melting situation. Stevemosher: Having an oddball year that we cant make sense of immediately is a great scientific opportunity. I wholeheartedly agree with you, surprise is what makes science and research fun. Nature is throwing us one from left field and we will have to rethink our conclusions and our predictions... Great!
As you rightly point out Neven, the PIOMAS results are consistent with SIE and SIA observations. This is a tick for the validity of the model.
Toggle Commented Aug 3, 2013 on PIOMAS August 2013 at Arctic Sea Ice
SIE under 7 million on 31/7 according to JAXA... just! SIE is now almost level with 2009 and a little over 2008. SIA seems to be stuck on 4.85 and is now slightly above both 2008 and 2009 (4.94) Big question is: from now on will 2013 trend 2009 or 2008? In 2009, the melt went very slowly in August with SIE finishing at 5.2 million and SIA at 3.4. 2008 behaved quite differently with big melts around 15-18 August finishing with an SIE of 4.7 and SIA just above 3 million. So, what is the weather looking like for the next fortnight?
Neven Do you think the Northern Route is going to be open this year. There is a big chunk of ice near Severnaya Zemlya that doesn't look it is going to disappear anytime soon. Likewise on the other side of the Arctic, West of Banks Island, the ice pack appears rock solid. If the NW passage opens, it will be the Southern Route ; the Northern Route is likely to be blocked off at its western end.
2009 had a minimum above 5 million sq km. This year is currently close on extent to that year but it appears on area its lower so I don't expect a repeat. I think high 4s is possible this year though. Henry and also Lord Soth. Totally agree with you. Unless something unexpected happens (such as a repeat of GAC 2012), we can now write off the possibility of a minimum under 4 million. I stick to my earlier prediction of an SIE minimum in the 4.8- 5.2 bracket. There are about 30-40 days of melt left, even if we average 65 k a day for that period, this will bring us to 4.8 million.
Toggle Commented Jul 29, 2013 on Second storm at Arctic Sea Ice