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Thanks for the link to the article Ghoti, Quasi-resonant waves (QRW) are an interesting hypothesis. The article points out that Quasi-resonant waves require boundaries that keep them in the troposphere. Could one fulfilling mechanism be a semi-permanent lens of temperature inversion between troposphere and stratosphere? Do SSW's have a role to play in the creation of QRW's? Is the current stuck system over the NPac created in part by boundary QRW's? Is it possible that latent energy from the large SSW of early 2013 could rebound back into the atmosphere creating ripples that might have led to QRW's? Did QRW's have a role in creating a turbulent troposphere resulting in the almost permanently cloudy conditions that led to a cooler than normal 2013 summer in the Arctic?
Toggle Commented Jan 21, 2014 on Looking for winter weirdness 2014 at Arctic Sea Ice
4.18 The chances of a big ice grinder 960-965 mb showing up in Mid-August 14-16 and then sticking around for 2-3 weeks is looking more and more favorable. If no ice grinder then lack of spring melt will raise the sept. avg. to at least 4.46-4.62. There just is not enough warm water available to provide bottom melt.
4.18 on September 14 -- I still think CAB will hold up just fine with cooler than average temperatures and little additional bottom melt. Additional in ES and Beaufort/CAA.
Summer has arrived! Area down 1Million in the last week.
4.25 as of now looks likely. Ice conditions will rule in the end. Extent could easily be more or less depending on weather conditions between mid August and early September. A big cyclone combined with low Fram totals means high extent while a big high crunches the ice into a pile and lowers extent. We're starting behind and will stay behind for the balance of the melting season unless things change.
3.8 +/- .4. Upside is snow North American snowpack delayed melting and downside is major storm tossing ice out the Fram. Think snow will win this year but 2014-2015 ice maximum drops below 11M and melt out becomes an expectation.
Was there a small earthquake? It looks like a sonic wave front passed from right to left orthogonal to the existing fractured ice. There seemed to be a pause just before the final cracking finalized in the western quadrant. It may have been a reflection at right angles to the land forms locally, partially canceling wave energy. It could also be the ice itself being stretched and compressed along vertical shear zones much like the fracture zones radiate from the undersea central ridge of the Earth.
SSW's should definitely be getting some research dollars moving in their direction. I for one want to know if the western pool water's thermal gradient has reached some cyclical equilibrium by venting extra heat directly into the atmosphere instead of via an el nino event? I also want to know the role of advection from more powerful and longer lasting cyclonic activity. Lastly, I would look for incursions of ultraviolet radiation due to breakdown of stratospheric O3 by man made chemistry preceding and/or during SSW. I would not be surprised to find that our effects are reaching both higher into the atmosphere and lower into the oceans than we realize.
Thanks Phil. Reading that explanation triggered a memory of a paper I had read in the 90's about eddy formation off the SW coast of Greenland and mixing of water at depth.
Steve, in addition to NAD mentioned by Aaron changes in the number and strength of SSW events could deliver heat in large quantities. Not sure how that could be determined except by impulses of warm loving foraminiferal (foram) species found in ocean floor sediments. Fast Impulses of cold to warm and then back again would be a good indication of atmospheric influences on foram populations. Does anyone know the timing of Mediterranean/Atlantic disconnects. I'm thinking that lack of Mediterranean salt dense water flowing into the bottom of the Atlantic could drive NH changes in deep sea convection currents. If anyone has knowledge of sampling that could throw some light on this subject?
Melt season is underway. I hope Jim Pettit has time to start updating his graphs. BTW is NSIDC ready to call maximum? I agree with you Neven, SO is definitely starting to melt. However, I wonder if offshore winds are driving ice into Hudson Bay and opening temp leads as opposed to open water from melting ice. Given the extent of fracturing, would anyone like to make a guess when the Laptev Bite will occur this melt season?
Toggle Commented Mar 24, 2013 on Crack is bad for you (and sea ice) at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry about that, here's the correct link (
ECMWF forecasts for the N-Hem next few days can be found at ( click N-Hem and use 500hPa,SLP 24hr, 48hr, 72hr etc. to get whatever day you need. The next several days show high pressure over CA/Greenland and low pressure over Russia/Scandanavia setting up wind fields to drive ice out the Fram. I'm not sure what I need to do to make the link work. I'm use to MSWord doing the linking automatically.
It seems as if MYI is being set up to flush out the Fram over the next 5-6 days according to ECMWF. How much thinner can the ice get before vanishing?
Llosmith57 added a favorite at Arctic Sea Ice
Oct 19, 2012
Llosmith57 is now following Neven
Oct 19, 2012
Ggelsrinc, Thorium, from what I have read is a promising possibility. A current version of the information from Lawrence Livermore has them concentrating on coming up with advanced detection of radioactive particles at very low levels. The goal is to be able to tell the difference quickly between radioactive materials in transport at any one time and the health of nuclear stockpiles in particular. Fortunately, Thorium with a half life over 1 billion years is not a health threat to anyone. The way I envision Thorium is a connection to a geothermal field on a house by house basis. Scaling of transport and market based controls are not yet on the design board. Even assuming Thorium detection becomes practical, my best case scenario estimate is 20-40 years for thorium market penetration to begin making a difference. Worst case is 60-100 years. I do not think mankind has that long to wait. Meanwhile the ice continues to melt and the future of geoengineering raises the hairs of caution on the back of my neck. Like Chris, I really do not see a possible geoengineering solution.
Toggle Commented Oct 12, 2012 on Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice
Larry, The uncertainties take into account many possibilities and include my own numbers for 2013 without any extra energy inputs from the Pacific if an El Nino materializes. Also, what would the 2013 maximums look like using the Gompertz function? Do you think that the Exponential function is worth computing? I am uncertain what to think about the current state of affairs in the Arctic. There seems to be at least some element of chaos from unexpected mixing at depth of mid level warmth and low levels of snow pack just about everywhere so an exponential function seems to be a possible alternative. Excluding the possible but unlikely venting of CO2 or Methane is there a way to assign some statistical chance of a sudden collapse within the Gompertz or Exponential functions?
Once the arctic is ice free it should begin to absorb and store heat energy. Has anyone seen a model that deals with effects on Oceanic circulation and specifically on North Atlantic Deep Water formation? The few I have come across deal with the meridional overturning during cool climate periods. NADW formation in the Norwegian Sea helps to keep Europe warm. I wonder what a model based on NADW formation inside the arctic basin would look like?
Toggle Commented Sep 9, 2012 on Signs of Arctic climate change at Arctic Sea Ice
Terry, That thought scares me, too! What type of atmospheric/oceanic equilibrium mechanisms will we experience when that day arrives? After the ocean is warmed at depth what happens next? Changes in ocean currents, long-lasting storms of a magnitude greater than GAC-12? A Polar Jet that is all but eliminated in summer resulting in total stagnation of NH weather systems? Greenland effects from pouring down rain followed by sensible heat intrusions up the many fiords? Will Greenland make it through this century with ice still intact?
When will the information from the Oden be available for public viewing? I am still expecting the ice volume to be 2.7-2.9 at minimum. To get there I need bottom melting to keep thickness at about 1 meter. If there is substantially thicker ice, I will need to adjust my volume estimate.
Neven, Thank you for sharing a little about your concerns and hopes for the future. My passion for trying to do something about AGW is my family's future. Like you I garden, albeit, on a small scale. I find it practical and relaxing in our fast paced world. I have been involved in AGW since the late 1980's. Even then the evidence collected and published in Congressional Research Service memos left no doubt about the direction that the Arctic and planet Earth would follow. Since then it has been a long uphill struggle to educate and remove the barriers to change. I am so glad for your blog. Perhaps change will start here. Keep up the good work. You are on the right path. Thank you again.
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2012 on Climate disclaimer at Arctic Sea Ice
Chris and Paul: The simplest actuarial way to change energy use is to price early retirement of existing energy delivery systems and capitalize more effective and efficient delivery systems into future contracts. The most impossible task is to actual build new energy delivery systems in a built up environment. There is just too much inertia in the system. Heck, it took a massive ice storm and a blizzard of public outcry just to get my local power company to spend the resources to cut down tree limbs overhanging power lines in my community. Minimum permitting time and environmental consideration reports for an energy delivery upgrade would take longer than a new refinery or nuclear plant. You are probably looking at 40-60 years to have a significant change in U.S. energy consumption and CO2 production. Another way to think about it is inertia in a system that when pushed just pushes back. The cost is in the trillions of dollars.
Toggle Commented Aug 11, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 9: stormy weather at Arctic Sea Ice
In addition to SIA and SIE minimums I was wondering what the effect on Ice Age comparisons might look like? Will the remaining MYI be less than 10% of the total at minimum? Will next year be able to recover if MYI is less than 3% of the total or is the end of MYI near?
Toggle Commented Aug 10, 2012 on Peeking through the clouds 3 at Arctic Sea Ice
Thank you Dr Tskoul. Visual conformation of charts and graphs helps me to understand ice conditions and what is likely to happen next.