I forgot to mention - Abraham Hopman was a pioneer balloonist. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Hopman

I decided to de-lurk for this thread. Hi everybody. @ i dunno - thanks for the 'mention in dispatches'. 1800 - anyone reaching the pole would have achieved an incredible 1st. A rival of Abraham Hopman builds a balloon which carries him to the north pole. Unfortunately he crashes there and he and the wicker basket with sand ballast and anchor inside are held to the ice by light snowfall. After some 15 years drifting around the Beaufort Gyre - about 3 circuits in those days, the floe with embedded remains enters the channels of the Canadian Archipelago. William Parry finds some scraps of cloth in Prince Regent Inlet which he fails to recognize as balloon fabric. He writes them up in his log as 'scraps of tent fabric, possibly wind-blown from an unknown explorer's camp'. Pushed onto 'permanent' shore ice by ice-shove the ice floe gradually becomes part of the land ice. Due to the floe lying above an under-ice basin the heavy basket gradually sinks through the ice. The remains are finally disclosed by the effects of global warming in the year ??? If our intrepid explorer left a message in a bottle, it probably did not read: "STENDEC".

2.5 But it could go as low as 2.0 I base that on my interpretations of the current state of the entire Arctic, as I just described in my blog, together with scientific reports of recent amplification factors. Given extensive melting around the Arctic coasts and islands, the mainly 1st year ice in the central basin will be unimpeded in moving through Fram Strait and other warmer waters such as the Barents and Kara seas. The melt is well under way and is headed for a cliff. Around The Arctic June 2013

"Does anyone know of a source for individual satellite swath images for the MODIS Terra/Aqua images?" Yes. I was 'lurking' and saw your comment, so I logged in. :-) http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/realtime.cgi You may also find other useful items via the Rapid response home page - http://earthdata.nasa.gov/data/near-real-time-data/rapid-response

Bambara asked "... the current heat budget that is going in to melting this ice as it passes down the east Greenland coast will be available to warm up the water on the east coast of Greenland. At that point what impact will the warmer water have on the climate? Will it increase the rate of melt of the Greenland icepack?" There is a scientific consensus that the current perennial summer loss of the shore-fast ice in NE Greenland will accelerate land-ice loss. You can read more in my article and comments "Glacier Changes in NE Greenland" - http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/glacier_changes_ne_greenland-114582

Neven: thanks for linking my first Arctic article of the season. You say: "I feel the Arctic sea ice pack could soon go POP under the right conditions." I agree. Hans Gunnstaddar says: "Every time a new record occurs climate change is given the mantle, and every time a rebound occurs it provides ammo for the recovery crowd. All the while we edge closer to a major tipping point." Just so. I have just finished a new article covering this very topic. Citing two excellent in-depth resources I show that the current warming is not 'just natural variation' as some would have it. There is a clear and continuous warming trend from the late 1800s through to today, with superimposed natural and mainly regional cycles. The Arctic's Warming Islands http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctics_warming_islands-113297 Check out this image from the mosaic: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2013147.terra.250m Left of center near the bottom you will see a sharp boundary between thicker and thinner ice running from Banks island to the mainland. There is a just-perceptible crack running almost parallel to the boundary. Watch for a very rapid break-up there. Will the NWP be open to navigation early ? Time will tell, but I am confident that it will be open again this year.

cli-fi 1960 style - full movie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJvdVi4K7rI My regular readers will know that I haven't written much because of RSI - it was too painful to use the mouse. I have been playing catch up for a while now. I have just linked to this article in a new article: http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_2013-113072 Good news: China and USA to cooperate on global warming: http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/green_step_humanity-112837

Just confirming it was me commenting as PasserBy. I'd mislaid my passwords list, so logged in via an old Yahoo account. I have posted a few articles recently, but not strictly about climate. I just posted an article about Wilhelm Sinsteden, unsung inventor of the lead-acid battery. It struck me that there is a connection to global warming. Arrhenius was first to analyse both atmospheric CO2 and electrochemistry in great depth. Given that the exact electrochemical nature of the lead-acid battery is still not fully understood, shouldn't all those 'wait until the facts are in' people stop using batteries and start their engines with the fully understood cranking handle? Just a thought. http://www.science20.com/chatter_box

Enno: the green tinge is observed every year as the sun shines lower in the polar skies. An observer on the ground sees red or orange because the green is scattered to space. As proof that the green is not due to marine algae, check the Antarctic mosaic for the same green tinge over land. The minimum: the 2007 record was broken a month earlier than the average date for minimum. This may imply a prolonged stalling of re-growth. When we see a winter minimum around 7th October we shall be witnessing the beginning of perennial summer open water over most of the Arctic. We may not yet have seen the 2012 minimum. Patrick.

Greetings to all. I have been 8unable to write for some time due to a painful arm problem - improving now. Well done on this story, Neven! I missed this one due to not using computer so I got the news here. A quick check of MODIS rapidfire shows a well-developed calving at 18:25 UTC on 14th July. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2012196182500-2012196183000.250m.jpg Some images from prior to that one show cloud hovering over the crack. Considering the heat and vapor that is released when ice cracks, I would consider those clouds to be a tell-tale of crack propagation. Expect more smaller chunks to calve this year. Sorry, that's all for now - I need to limit my typing so as not to strain my arm again. Hope to resume blogging soon.

No images today from Aqua orbit swathe or mosaic. As the Terra / Aqua satellites are well past their projected life I am wondering: is this a data-handling glitch at Lance Modis, or is it a glitch in the satellite? Time will tell. Here in Kent it is exceedingly warm - the warmest February day that I can remember. William Hill is offering 8 to 1 that this year will see a new highest ever temperature. I'd go for that if I was a gambler.

NSIDC February news is up: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/02/arctic-ice-extent-low-overall-high-in-the-bering-sea/ We may expect the usual suspects to announce "recovery" based on the Bering Strait extent. If I may paraphrase Bruce Lee: the finger points at Bering Strait. Do not look at the finger or you will miss all the losses on the Atlantic side. Key points: The greater-than-normal ice extent in the Bering Sea partly compensated for low ice extent on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, but ice extent as a whole remained far below average. Overall, the Arctic gained 765,000 square kilometers (295,000 square miles) of ice during the month. This was 545,000 square kilometers (210,000 square miles) less than the average ice growth rate for January 1979 to 2000. Based on the satellite record, before 2005 average January ice extent had never been lower than 14 million square kilometers (5.41 million square miles). January ice extent has now fallen below that mark six out of the last seven years. ------- My predictions for summer 2012 Very rapid and dramatic drop in extent commencing in May. Open water at the pole by July. By summers end, open seas (not just leads) along Greenland's coast above Nord. New September minimum extent. NWP virtually ice free again, by August. Petermann calves again, by July end. There is a form of ice bridge in Petermann fjord. Given that there is a sill below, it may be that waters in the Nares Strait and Petermann fjord are not mixing. Any scientific hypotheses, speculations, wild guesses, anybody? That's all for now - very busy with urgent 'library' - i.e. internet - research.

Two links for Arctic watchers. Holocene dynamics of the Arctic's largest ice shelf: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/10/18/1106378108.abstract Overview of this years Arctic science findings: http://www.mydigitalfc.com/knowledge/debate-continues-676 Unfortunate use of 'debate' - which it ain't - otherwise a good news article.

Grab a drink, get comfortable, and watch this 1947 Russian (English language) movie about the Great Northern Sea Route: http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=US&v=8qnvG0xERik I stumbled on it while researching historic data on icebreakers for a recent article on the Yermak: http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/icebreaker_yermak-83623

Nut brings icebreaker to a halt. No, not a tree-hugger or a pseudo-skeptic. :-) http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/10/10/loose-propeller-nut-strands-coast-guard-icebreaker/ I've pulled a few strands together and posted a new article: http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/arctic_ice_october_2011-83448 The first commenter accuses me of cherry-picking. Ah, well! When the trolls attack, you know you are having an effect. LOL.

If Neven takes me to the Arctic next summer we will be taking bets. Not on ice extent, but on who will be first to need medevac due to heatstroke. ;-)

Lodger: that is extremely kind of you, but as a contributor of a teensy amount I would not feel good about 'getting my own back', Ecclesiastes 11:1 notwithstanding. Neven: take your family out - show them that we, your loyal and devoted acolytes, appreciate their forbearance as you spent the summer 24/7 at the keyboard whilst ignoring them completely. ;-) The charitable donation is cool!

Thanks for the giant plug, Neven! There is a very high resolution image of the remnants of the Ward Hunt ice shelf in 2010 over at NASA. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=45463 MODIS images show that the break-up continued after the date of the NASA image - August 18 2010. The large remaining piece is bonded at each end to ice domes. The lines between the shelf ice and the dome ice can just about be seen in some MODIS images. I have had my eye on this area throughout summer. The shelf appears to have some fissures but overall it hasn't budged. MY best guess is that because it is so well bonded to solid ice at each end it will not detach as spectacularly as other shelves but will first break up in situ. Maybe as early as next summer.

Not entirely unrelated to the Charles Monnet affair is my article on the use of the scientific method in the sphere of law. I have linked to this article and to Eli Rabbet. Today's article is something of a follow-on to my Monnet article - Is This a Fishing Expedition? http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/fishing_expedition-81308 http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/laws_nature_and_natural_justice-82954 Criminal law is society's way of giving two egotistical actors the opportunity to decide the fate of a captive audience. Cynic ? Moi ? ;-)

Now, everybody sing! I tell you, my dear friends, oh, how wonderful it is, no matter wherever you are, we can all be happy singing, no matter if you're out there parked in that car along the highway, or whether you're at home, sitting by the radio, or whether you're having a meal, or whether you're by the TV set, let everyone sing about the melting icecaps, how they're coming down into the sea, and let us all have a swimming time, as we sing... Those words are from 1968. Plus ça change, plus c'est le même message. http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=US&v=4dkEjN-fPLo A big shout out goes to newtownian 1 who commented about this song over at the Grauniad: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/sep/25/ice-melt-himalayas-climate-change Please take a slug of something to steady your stomach as you delve into the mire of irrational comments which always seem to follow any environment news article over there. Thank you Neven and all contributors to these discussions. My own blogging fell off a bit lately due to illness, but I was happy knowing that my 'Arctic Irregulars' could avoid withdrawal symptoms by coming here. Kudos and an e-beer for everyone! :-)

NSIDC roolz ! As it say in the banner over at my blog: "If you think my English is bad, you should see my math." :-) Paul: kudos to you for your efforts. Real scientists always appreciate error correcting feedback. The IJIS ice area graph is showing an uptick like the 2010 one. If that is followed by a 2010-like downturn we could still see a new record. As it stands, 2011 overtakes the 2010 3rd place with a solid 2nd place as far as extent is concerned. The fat lady (Hattie Jacques?) may be singing, but she has paused for a quick gargle. IJIS has just added new CLIM2 graphs to their 'portfolio'. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/

Neven: belated congratulations on your guest post at Joe Romm's blog. You may not have noticed, but you are also live linked from Andrew Revkin's Arctic ice watch - NYT blog. http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/the-arctic-ice-watch/ You have definitely 'arrived'. Well done - keep up the good work! In some ways it will be a pity if the 2011 final figures don't show a new record: it will be hailed on the propagandist sites as 'proof' that ice loss has halted, or that global warming doesn't exist, or that Lord Monckton should rule the planet, or some such nonsense. Since I have little energy these days, and since you are doing such a fine job -(where do you get the energy?)- I haven't posted a mid-month update. Instead, I've posted a potted history of Arctic ice observations. Far too many people think that we have no data on the Arctic before satellites and the internet. I guess they never heard of books. ;-) http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/brief_history_arctic_warming-82545

A facebook user - just count yourself lucky that we aren't teaching our kids the 3 Rs - Reamur, Roemer and Rankine ! I stated in my earlier blogs that in my opinion 2011 is likely to set a new low extent record. In my September blog I went for a new record minimum, giving reasons. A new study of volume is just now making the headlines: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2011JC007084.shtml "... the 2010 September ice volume anomaly did in fact exceed the previous 2007 minimum by a large enough margin to establish a statistically significant new record." http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/total-volume-arctic-ice-shrank-record-low-2010 Given that 2011 started with such a low volume, and that it has more-or-less caught up with the delayed start of melt which was due to extra cold temps over the western areas, I am confident that a new area record will be set as marked by both NSIDC and IJIS. As I write this, the IJIS area is already the lowest ever for this day. The current rate of melt is such that it need only continue for 2 weeks to set the new record. btw - the landfast ice has broken up now on both sides of Flade / Nord. As far as I know that is the first time that both areas have broken up at the same time.

Some of the points I raised above are covered in my blog. My 'Arctic Index' lists them. http://www.science20.com/chatter_box/blog/chatterbox_arctic_index-69692 'The Oldest Arctic Ice' is about the Ellesmere ice shelf. 'History Mysteries #2 - the sawdust coast' is about trees being flushed down to the coast of the Lena delta. There is also a whole series on tipping points. Kevin asked me what paper I was translating, but his comment is now buried in these many excellent comments. Kevin: I have been transcribing and translating two papers by Ignaz Venetz. He was the first person to give scientific evidence of past climate changes which had caused changes in the extent of glaciation: i.e. ice ages. He published in 1821. Louis Agassiz, who is most often credited as the person who discovered the ice ages, did not begin to study the subject until 1836. I have now published 5 articles on this, with a translation in hand, 50% complete. Neven: by way of compensation for this shameless plug - I am trying to keep up with your welter of articles by linking them in my blogs. It is only rarely now that I can find time - and energy - to make much of a contribution here directly.

I'm expecting to see the extent take a nosedive. The IJIS AMSR-E graphs show that area continues to decline fairly rapidly while extent declines only at a very slow rate. This must mean that as the ice is melting, it is spreading out. If either the spread out ice is flushed into warmer waters or it is pressed back hard into the main pack, we will see a very rapid drop in extent. Keep watching those extent graphs!