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That seems to load slowly or inconsistently.
Neven reposted it here as a guest comment, maybe that will work better:
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/problematic-predictions-2.html
2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1
As announced in ASI 2016 update 5 a very large cyclone is raging in the Arctic, as we speak. According to Environment Canada the storm's current central pressure is 970 hPa, but it was 968 hPa 12 hours ago, which is probably the lowest it will go. I've combined the weather map with yesterday's U...
For those with fallible memories, the July 2013 post in which Rob Dekker gave a simple predictive formula for minimum September ice extent is here:
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/06/problematic-predictions.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01901e13f96f970b#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01901e13f96f970b
2016 Arctic cyclone, update 1
As announced in ASI 2016 update 5 a very large cyclone is raging in the Arctic, as we speak. According to Environment Canada the storm's current central pressure is 970 hPa, but it was 968 hPa 12 hours ago, which is probably the lowest it will go. I've combined the weather map with yesterday's U...
Excellent guest post, Alek. Logical and clearly written explanation of a phenomenon that I (and likely some other readers) have been watching without necessarily grasping many of the interesting details, including the changes over the past decades. Thanks.
Beaufort Gyre guest blog
Not an update of current conditions in the Beaufort Sea, but some science for your reading pleasure. This is a guest blog by Alek Petty, a postdoc at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland, specializing in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability. Alek has just publish...
Mind you, Watts takes the time to highlight this nonsense, but he hides from his readers that new minimum records have been set last week for both Global sea ice area and extent, and the Arctic sea ice maximum record could very well be broken too in the coming weeks. None of that on WUWT. These things simply don't exist in the world of climate risk deniers.
That's not surprising with unwanted facts and data. For example, Tony Watts has gone three years with barely a mention of his home state's record drought, only bringing it up when it looked as if El Nino rain and snow was about to end it. (At this point, that optimism seems premature.)
Grasping at uncorrected straws
I rather not give too much attention to fake skeptics, or climate risk deniers as I like to call them, but lately they are somehow finding it in themselves to come up with stuff that they think disproves Arctic sea ice loss. I've already posted about MASIE annual average nonsense (about which t...
@ Tim (post #3): this discussion came up on ATTP and was convincingly answered by Hamilton in the comments section with reference to other work.
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/09/30/guest-post-the-elephant-in-the-room/
Arctic sea ice -- in pre-election perceptions
As longtime ASIB readers may know, my colleagues and I have been tracking US public perceptions of Arctic change. This started with analysis of questions written by others for the nationwide General Social Survey in 2006 and 2010, then shifted to our own questions placed on another nationwide su...
Does anyone know why Cryosat only reports (Arctic) data from mid-October to mid-April?
CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness maps
Yesterday at one of the EGU 2015 poster sessions I had a short chat with Tommasso Parrinello, the ESA's CryoSat-2 mission manager. He told me lots of useful improvements have been made in the past couple of months, and if all goes well the satellite can remain operational up to 2020 (no guarant...
No reflection on the quality of your site, Neven, but I really didn't think I'd start following it closely until April or May. But it looks like it may be shaping up to be another 'interesting' year, with all the mixed baggage that that word brings.
Mad max?
Okay, I'm not calling the max - short for maximum extent of the sea ice pack that marks the end of the freezing season - as I've sworn not to do that anymore since 2012, when I called the max twice, only to see the trend line bounce up higher and later. But this year something really interestin...
A denier was also a medieval coin. Fittingly, the smallest value in circulation.
PIOMAS May 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: On the PIOMAS website the following is written: The 2014 ice volume reached its annual maximum in Ap...
Regarding Bill's comment at 22:02, Lawrence Solomon writes for one of Canada's two national newspapers. That paper has four or five columnists who consistently attack AGW and have for years. No idea why the paper has such an unbalanced editorial policy unless it's advertising money from oil companies or senior management bias. FWIW all of the columnists are well on in years.
PIOMAS May 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: On the PIOMAS website the following is written: The 2014 ice volume reached its annual maximum in Ap...
David, I can't answer with respect to every expedition but for reasons of space, cost and liability it would be difficult unless you had some institutional ties and/or were able to pitch it as reporting.
On the other hand, depending where you are based, you can fly commercially to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland and from there and some other towns on the west coast take trips to the edge of the ice sheet or observe icebergs calving near Ilulissat. And no doubt there are charter helicopter flights available offering the chance to fly over and possibly land on the ice sheet itself.
None of these activities come cheap, of course.
Getting ready
With the melting season getting ready to go full speed, I'm also busy getting everything ready. First of all on the virtual level by updating the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page. I've slightly altered the daily graphs page, by adding a couple of links, graphs and category names to make it easier to ...
@ Chris - I was thinking along the lines of getting the ice out to sea faster, not melting it in place. I think it's fair to say that we don't yet have an accurate handle on the details of how a large ice sheet breaks up.
PIOMAS March 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During the month of February the gap between this year and the other years from the post-2010 period ...
Folke: "Ice is a very bad heat conductor, so it will take a time to warm up the core of the ice."
The problem is that it is becoming increasing apparent that relatively warm surface water can sluice down through fractures and moulins to the base of the ice sheet, which can already be near its melting point due to pressure and geothermal heat.
This is starting to look like yet another example of bistable behavior with tipping points - a cold, hard, dry, high-altitude, high albedo ice sheet vs. a warm, soft, wet, shrinking and increasingly dark ice sheet potentially subject to surprisingly rapid disintegration.
We'll see soon enough, I suppose.
PIOMAS March 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During the month of February the gap between this year and the other years from the post-2010 period ...
To me it seems remarkable how little data is being released from Cryosat-2, or how slowly it is coming out. One would expect at least a few researchers would be reporting ice thickness measurements in a more timely fashion.
ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
@ Glenn Tamblyn, 14:22
Based on the planned 2013 scientific missions, this year's route of the Healy may be of less interest to those interested in Arctic sea ice than its 2012 tracks were.
http://icefloe.net/healy-current-mission
Problematic predictions 2
This comment by long-time commenter Rob Dekker was so good and elegant that I decided to squeeze it in as a follow-up guest blog to the first Problematic predictions post. ----- In Bill's excellent overview of correlations here, he used 'area' earlier as a predictor for 'area' later (area->are...
As a geophysicist working in a field unrelated to meteorology or climate I entirely agree with A-Team's comments on the quality, usability and accessibility of a great many relevant datasets, maps and figures. It really is quite off-putting and presents a high (and wholly unnecessary) hurdle to researchers of all stripes.
ASI 2013 update 3: the Arctic goes POP
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2012 period (NSIDC has ...
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