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Russell McKane
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Modeling is fine and it also is built in empirical data. But when the data is so thinly spread in areas like the poles modeling is needed to fill in the gaps. As is commented many many times in this blog and forum, there is a gap between a model like PIOMAS and reality on the ground. (my experience is that modeling is having trouble keeping up with rapid change) Hopefully the new ICEsat 2 can help remove these inconsistencies. It will take time for the data to come in and be meaningful - as data sets also need time and repetition. Hopefully there will be enough time left for the ice in the Arctic for this to be useful. In the Antarctic, and the Greenland Ice sheet, it will be invaluable.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2018 on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Great commentary once again, thanks Neven. I did miss your fortnightly updates this year, I may be a bit of a lurker but have been following this blog since 2006/7 . Great to note the successful launch of ICEsat 2 this week. Now we all wait for numbers and calibrations to be complete. Hopefully more empirical evidence less modelling in how thick this sea ice is.
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2018 on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf on Ellsemere Island has collapsed in last few days. See image on the Image of Day section of arctic Sea Ice Forum.
Toggle Commented Aug 25, 2018 on Circumnavigating Greenland at Arctic Sea Ice
For regulars information - I'm signed in under Treform on the Forum - not my real name as here - though I will probably sign off as Russell - I'm looking forward to the new opportunity of this forum and the simplificationof the Blog which has such immense value.
Toggle Commented Feb 22, 2013 on Arctic Sea Ice Forum at Arctic Sea Ice
Correction - don't trust the converter that comes up automatically in Google - LOL 46.4 is 115.52 NOOA Conersion tool.
Toggle Commented Jan 18, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Summer madness - Sydney AUstralia - 3pm local time broke all past temperature records with 45.8 degree Centregrade Where I live just out of Sydney - Richmond 46.4 also an all time record. That is 112.28 degrees Fahrenheit> Fires again a big issue in eastern Australia. Fortunately none in my area at the moment. Sorry but I'm holed up inside with the Air Conditioning runing. the diachotomy between belief and surviving - we will all have to face more once this becomes the norm.
Toggle Commented Jan 18, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Don't forget wintermadness up there is Summer Madness in southern hemisphere. CLimate takes no regard for equators - from a hot way too hot -not experienced before 55 year old, some time desert dweller, Aussie.
Toggle Commented Jan 14, 2013 on Looking for winter weirdness 5 at Arctic Sea Ice
Correction - Sorry meant AGU fall meeting not UGS - Link above is right one though.
Toggle Commented Dec 2, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Exciting week for me and perhaps you, This week is the start of the UGS Fallmeetings which includes many video on demand sessions and live webcastes from the latest science in many areas but there are a lot of sessions of Cryosphere and areas of interest to this Blog. Check out the program here Follow links to on demand - this has a 48 hr delay so by Wednesday US time plenty will be available to view. IN the mean time you could follow COP18 Doha Here but it may just give you an idea wh nothing is happening fast at the international leve- I recommend the on demand press conferences more than the general meetings.
Toggle Commented Dec 2, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
It appears that the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) major crack is now complete. The ship has disengaged all it needs now is to slip glacially into the bay. The following picture is from The Aqua images from 27th November. It as been contrast enhanced using paintshop pro - curves.
Toggle Commented Nov 29, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
I knew I had read this somewhere – we have already put away 10,000 cubic kms from our oceans in new dams. (Dams Deep trouble - Science, News - Independent_co_uk.mht) Dams: Deep trouble. Are vast dams around the world masking the full extent of sea-level rises? Steve Connor reveals why soon we may all be in... Wednesday, 19 March 2008 “Predictions for sea-level rises due to global warming affect hundreds of millions of people at risk from coastal flooding. The new research suggests that, over the past 50 years, new dams and reservoirs have held back some 10,800 cubic kilometres of water, which would have been enough to raise global sea levels by about 30mm. In other words, the rises we have seen so far due to global warming might have been considerably larger if it were not for the huge numbers of dams and reservoirs built from the 1950s onwards. Ben Chao of the National Central University in Taiwan carried out the mammoth task of investigating the holding capacity of some 29,484 reservoirs in order to estimate how much water they have prevented from flowing into the sea.” This doesn’t include some big new dams coming on line like the Three Gorges Dam, in China To add to this a new report from the World Bank out yesterday gives a graph showing this effect. Page. 9 ‘Turn down the heat why a 4o C world must be avoided’ Available as a free pdf from world bank website. Graph From Church, J. A., White, N. J., Konikow, L. F., Domingues, C. M., Cogley, J. G., Rignot, E., Gregory, J. M., et al. (2011). Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(18), L18601. doi:10.1029/2011GL048794 So the answer may be build more dams and let the increased rain from warmer oceans and higher temperatures capture the water as fresh water. Obviously these need to be placed in high rainfall areas in the new climate regime. They may supply some water security but as we know the cultural and environmental consequences are enormous, but then so will moving some very large cities.
Trying again Eyre to 30 meters above sea level
Okay Lodger, Picture uploading Eyre project to 30 meter above sea level.>
Doger - Maaate. Still not discounting Eyre - apart from some very obvious cultural problems many Australians are open to the idea being one that was floated over a hundred years ago. Also there is a lot of engineering work done into the scheme so even if it didn't happen there is a significant body of research into the possibility of filling below sea level areas which could be cross applied .Here are some more of my thumbnail research with gogle earth today. I have pics to go with this but can't post. Lake Eyre at 30 mtres above sea level. Lake Eyre is only 8,900 sq Kms but the area below sea level is approx. 26,000 sq Kms Bringing this up to approx. 30 mtres above sea level gives 430km x 130km Approx Area of main body only Equals 55,900 sq km (thats more than half the area of England) at an average of 20 metre deep equals 1,118 cubic kilometres This does not include the Lake George/ Lake Frome arm and average allows some 10mtres below sea level that does not normally fill when Eyre fills. Channel via Lake Torrens length max 417 . Of this 50 meters high achieved over 150 km. then using Lake Torrens natural flow toward Eyre with 50 km of tunnels/channels at end into the greater Eyre basin. Previous schemes to achieve this used natural slope to go below sea level (giving only a 3cm slope per Km – far too small to get reasonable flows. Where I would suggest pumping up to height and then letting gravity more efficiently bring the water to fill. Use of Solar and wind generation to maintain pump flow. Also using a fill Lake Torrens to greater depth and then releasing through hydro into Eyre Basin to re-generate some of pump electrical needs. – as well as local infrastructure. Although Eyre fills and the last two seasons has been full due to La Nina, it only ever achieves 2mtrs depth it never fills to sea level. It drains and evaporates faster than this. Other Factors – The reason Eyre does not fill and remain full is water quickly drains into the great Artesian Basin – which would take many more times this storage amount before filled to point of not taking water from project. This would actually store a significant amount of Greenland melt (needs research to find out how much but it covers a vast area of Australia’s under surface land mass. GAB contains 69,000 cubic km of ground water. Can we refill the great artesian basin with floodwater -? By making the Eyre region a sea again this would put a plug on the flow of the GAB toward the Eyre basin and eventually refill, even if over hundreds of years, the rest of the GAB. The problem of salt water at this end of the system would be significant but not likely to back up through system. Once full the evaporation to rain events would begin to self feedback providing fresh rain to the east which would flow back to the inland sea. This would also capture natural water from oceans currently passing over the centre and increase precipitation – ie the earth provides the water pump for ongoing refilling. (remember that this was an inland sea and functioned like this in the past. ) Historical analysis provided here. But remember aim of this was for achieving a farming /cost benefit whereas we are looking at sea water storage benefit.
You could fill the Eyre depression to over 30m+ sea level and not break though to ocean so volume could be enormous. But thats some big pump structure or Syphon. Eyr is 15m below but the area I think would be larger than the Caspian and is land locked.
Lodger, don't forget Lake Eyre region of central AUstralia, not sure how much we are talking about but it is the largest salt lake in the world. Many schemes have been dreamed up to fill this baby from the ocean and thus create a new greener Australia, mega engineering but it would have an effect on solar radiance. Sea level rise will see it fill eventually so maybe no harm in making it happen quicker . still it is frightening to think of the short term environmental and climate changes it would bring to our nation.
I know this is OT, but then most of the recent posts are. Neven we probaly need an new open thread. I have been keeping an eye on Barrow and sea conditions - Check out the Barrow Webcam on webcam tab above. This is ben caused by a persistant Arctic Low ( not prepared to say Cyclone - as these require sea temps over 26.5 deg C) How is this storm going to affect Ice growth and development (as apposed to our August Storm)? Also what will be the effect of these storms on coastal erosion with so much of the Arctic coast still not protected by a sea ice layer. Barrow has at least a rudimentary leve in place. But I rather think the town will be in trouble if not able to maintain it over time.
Toggle Commented Oct 15, 2012 on Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven Can we have a new open thread. Not sure where to post this. But minimum open thread is now 4 pages long and it will probably get lost. Only an observation - Check out the Barrow web cam for today 28 at 15.04.27 hours - massive ocean waves, massive for Barrow at least. Damage along arctic coast will be significant this year. There is a lot of time for arctic low pressure storms with open water left in the season. Unprotected Permafrost coast lines will continue to be hit in the extended open water seasons.
Toggle Commented Sep 28, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
Jim As I said my main computer where I have most stuff is not available, I will see if I have it on my old backup drive tomorrow and post as soon as I can.
Owen A few points from my reading over the years that as far as I have read backwards the discussion appears to have missed. 1. Gravitational spring back from the centre of the GIS and WAIS are factors that have an influence on end sea level rise. This was one factor that was part of revising the WAIS contribution from 6 meters down to 3.5 meters in recent research. (sorry I can't access articles as my hard drives have suffered majoy meltdown and I am waiting on achieving some bounce back of my own) 2. Loss of Ice mass in GIS and WAIS will affect gravitational distribution as water redistributes around globe. This will cause a change in Poles and earths spin (Net outcome aside from massive techtonic / earthquake affects and as for any modeling predicting I think we have stuff all ability to model this one with any accuracy close to what we have managed with Arctic ice melt) 3. a rise of 0.6 meters has the potential to breakoff and float the WAIS from purely hydrolic pressure of floating Ice shelves and the geological features of the Pine Island Glacier (PIG) So the GIS may well precipitated rapid sea level rise well before the 1 meter mark is reached.
Wayne that reminds me of a question I have wanted to ask the blog team. Does anyone know of any summer attempts on the Pole this year?Over the Ice that is?
Geoff , I read this last night with some concern. But we have a saying here in Australia. School boys in short pants shouldn't walk on top of picket fences.
I knew it could be dangerous to disagree with Patrick, :) looking at water in Nares Strait the same appears so I am going to go against my last post and agree with a green due to blue scatter but I would still like to view some near Infrared bands before I discount an algal presence.
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
Disagreeing with Patrick could be a dangerous thing But I would will. Looking at the 3,6,7 image the tinge here is purple. Now this image does not contain any green spectrum. 3 in red (given the colour blue) 6 is far infra red and 7 is thermal. (note thermal has a lower resolution than the other six channels so thus the banding) I would like to see bands 4 and 5 as a 4,5,6 image gives good distinction in plant matter. (Does anyone know if full multispectral images are available to the public and where, as I have the software - multispec {free download} to process.)Also if it is as suggested there would also be some green tinging on ice areas (as antarctic over land). also we would see the affect on opposite sides of image giving a donnut effect. Given also reports last year of algal growth under thin ice my main suspect remains algal.
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2012 on Minimum open thread at Arctic Sea Ice
How far does a Polar bear have to swim from land to the ice edge? As of 16th September 2012. Using Google and overlay map From Burrow 950 kms From Svalbard 380 North 230 kms to Frame Ice transport From Franz-Josef Land 379kms From Komsomolets Island 393Km or 583 for congruous edge. From OStrov Faddeyevskly 537 km Granted they may have caught the ice edge earlier in season and no Bear is going to be in a fit state for such a swim now if they missed the early opportunities(lack of food). If they did catch the edge early their summer would have been one of constant losing ice and moving north. No time for birthing in an ice cave(particularly given the state of the ice and lack on MYI with good ice ridges.) Once Ice refreezes they are then faced with a treck back to their traditional winter land the same distance. The life cycle of a Polar bear must change if they are to survive these changes.