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"All" politicians are inauthentic?
Seems a little too simplistic a characterization. Unless I missed a tongue-in-cheek reference.
By the way, I've been catching up with your columns on NYT. Some good material.
New NYT: Jeb Bush's electoral mismatch problem
Why is Jeb Bush struggling to find a message that will resonate in the 2016 invisible primary contest for the GOP presidential nomination? One reason, I argue in a new Upshot column, is the mismatch between the Florida electorate he previously served and the national GOP primary electorate: The ...
Brendan, the New York Magazine article just lists a bunch of nobodies with Jack Welch and Allen West. It makes it seem like the whole article wasn't worth the time it took to read.
And TPM should've done their due diligence in seeing if in fact, Sen. McCain was accusing the administration of manipulating the jobs' numbers. It seems to me he went right on to the next topic.
New at CJR: Enabling the jobs report conspiracy theory
I have a new column up at CJR assessing coverage of Friday's jobs report. Unfortunately, far too much coverage gave voice to the conspiracy theories that started circulating rather than ignoring or casting doubt on them. Here's how it begins: Media ethics pop quiz: When conspiracy theories starte...
Another good read.
I have a question, though. Midterms are often referendums on the President. Is it possible that some national elections are referendums on state governors? Like, will Scott Walker's unpopularity in Wisconsin help the President?
New at CJR: Narrowcasting the 2012 election
I have a new post up at Columbia Journalism Review on how the media's focus on swing states and voter demographics misses the big picture. Here's how it begins: With Mitt Romney’s hold on the GOP nomination becoming too obvious to deny, horse race enthusiasts in the political media have quickly s...
As a non-Romney fan, this still annoys me. Romney did not use the "Etch-A-Sketch" analogy, a campaign aide did.
But campaigns are verbal tete a tetes. Anything to give either Gingrich or Santorum an advantage in the war of words, I suppose.
New at CJR: The Etch-a-Sketch press
My new post for Columbia Journalism Review examines how the press has covered the Romney/Etch-a-Sketch controversy. Here how it begins: Yesterday, Etch-a-Sketch became the media’s favorite metaphor for Mitt Romney’s ideological flexibility. But the iconic children’s toy is an equally good represe...
Brendan, do you think in the future you can post more articles with references to '80s cartoons? You just don't do it enough, I think.
I'm half-way through your paper, by the way. It's a great read, even if I give some paragraphs a double-take to understand what's being said.
The effects of health care reform in 2010 and beyond
Why did Democrats do so poorly in the 2010 elections? The median academic forecast was 44 to 45 seats (PDF). However, Republicans significantly outperformed expectations in picking up 66 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate. After the election, John Sides, Eric McGhee, and I found that ...
For all the attention this guy commands nationally, don't people know he's only a county sheriff?
Besides, I'm pretty sure even IF Obama were born in Kenya, his mother Sarah was an American, thus by extension, he is too.
New at CJR: Arpaio coverage may worsen birtherism
My new CJR column examines coverage of Maricopa County sheriff Joe Arpaio's birther press conference as a case study in how news reporting can reinforce misperceptions: Last Tuesday, the New America Foundation released a report (PDF) I co-authored with Georgia State’s Jason Reifler on how to most...
I suspect many politicians get into politics for various issues, some more than others. To me, Romney's changing stance on abortion isn't so much about convenience (well, it is) but the fact that maybe abortion isn't as high on his list as having an agenda that is solidly pro-business.
That he may less concern of some issues over others may be the "real Romney" and that on various social issues, he was willing to make tradeoffs for political gain.
Just like his father, George was here.
New at CJR: The elusive hunt for the 'real Romney'
I have a new column up at CJR on the causes and consequences of the media's search for a candidate's true self: Though he launched his first run for president more than five years ago, Mitt Romney is still widely seen as an enigmatic figure. With opponents for the GOP presidential nomination rais...
Another good read Brendan.
Only Obama's critics were implied to have some sort of racial undertones when talking about who the "real Obama" was. Hasn't happened to Romney, I've noticed.
New at CJR: The elusive hunt for the 'real Romney'
I have a new column up at CJR on the causes and consequences of the media's search for a candidate's true self: Though he launched his first run for president more than five years ago, Mitt Romney is still widely seen as an enigmatic figure. With opponents for the GOP presidential nomination rais...
Had they waited another couple of days, United Republic could've added one more question to the Stupid Debate Questions: Why would your wife make a better 1st Lady?
Twitter roundup
George McGovern was considered a contender for President in 1992? Really?
Most-read posts of 2011
Since everyone is doing year-end lists, here are my ten most-read posts of 2011. Interestingly, two are posts that still draw significant traffic through links and Google: 1. The disappearing Tax Foundation blog post (5/16/11) 2. The problems with the Groseclose/Milyo study of media bias (12/22/...
On black QBs: one of the things that nobody posted about the racial composite of college and NFL QBs is the journey that one goes through to get to the next level. I do agree with the one poster that race plays the biggest factor into a lot of coaches/recruiters/programs' decisions to use white QBs over black QBs.
Everyone knows to get to the NFL at whatever position you play, you've gotta be the best of the best. You’re the 1% (and I was definitely the 99% by the time I was in junior high). I won't rehash what we already know.
But it is not uncommon the twists and turns that players go through to get to the next level, be it high school to college and then to the pros. Many players will change positions throughout their careers. Lineman will switch sides from offense to defense, move from guard to tackle, or defensive end to defensive tackle or to linebacker. It happens all the time. If you played linebacker in high school, it's plausible some recruiter might ask you to come play at his school as a safety and you'll go along because of the doors it'll open up (NFL, free tuition, girls).
A lot of this has to do with size and skill set. What worked in college doesn’t always work in the pros – note that there are a lot of Heisman trophy winners who didn’t excel in the NFL. A lot of the gifts QBs have are the same gifts wide receivers have – good hands, good feet, speed, and ability to read defensive coverage. But some of the systems that QBs play in at a college level are gimmicky, like the spread offense, and won’t work in the NFL. They don’t work because they’re too simplistic and an NFL defense would exploit every flaw easily. And because they’re not very complex – they don’t require having to make many reads (watching what the defense does) – a lot of the playmaking is due to athleticism and not the mental decisions.
Going back to what I said about getting recruited, a lot of these recruiters go into the inner city schools that are predominantly black, and they tell some of these QBs that if they come here they can play wide receiver, or tight end, or something on defense, because there can only be one QB on the field at a time, but there can be two, but as many as five WRs, three or four LBs, six DBs, and so on, and off they go to college learning a new system and a new position.
Sorry if this post is so long, but it’s something to consider.
Most-read posts of 2011
Since everyone is doing year-end lists, here are my ten most-read posts of 2011. Interestingly, two are posts that still draw significant traffic through links and Google: 1. The disappearing Tax Foundation blog post (5/16/11) 2. The problems with the Groseclose/Milyo study of media bias (12/22/...
I'm sure that statistic you cite from the Humphrey School is correct, David. But the fact of the matter remains, most of the Republican candidates make claims that cannot be substantiated; most the Republicans PolitiFact checks on lately are the contenders for President. There happens to be more Republicans running for President than Democrats lately, for obvious reasons.
You can't blame PolitiFact for the fact (no pun intended, I swear) that Republican candidates make very bizarre claims (e.g. Bachmann's HPV-mental retardation claim). It's not their fault many Republicans have lost their minds.
Twitter roundup
Congratulations, and your article was a great read.
I'm curious to know if you have an opinion on other states having moved their primaries/caucuses up to compete with New Hampshire and Iowa. I realize that isn't what the article was about, but in the opening paragraph, I thought you'd be headed in that direction.
Happy Thanksgiving!
New at CJR: Covering a "national campaign" in NH
I'm starting a regular gig as a New Hampshire campaign correspondent for Columbia Journalism Review. My first post, which focuses on the challenges of covering an increasingly national campaign for the GOP presidential nomination, is now online -- here's an excerpt: At one time, the hope was that...
David - the short answer is yes. I have an old friend who I went to college with has 8 years of school in total = 5 years undergrad from Eastern Michigan and 3 years of law school from Penn State, and has accumulated $275,000 in debts. 3/4 of that $275,000 are from federal Stafford loans.
So about $206,000 can be forgiven after 25 years, but the remaining balance forgiven is considered income and will be taxed in addition to whatever you're currently making.
If I'm not mistaken, you cannot file for bankruptcy for student loan debt. But if you go to work for public service or a qualified non-profit, the debt can be forgiven in 10 years with no tax liability.
Twitter roundup
View the story "Twitter roundup (10/26-10/31)" on Storify]
Don't forget David, the student loan forgiveness plan really isn't "forgiveness." The debt remaining after 20/25 years that's "forgiven" is actually considered "income" and gets taxed by the IRS.
Twitter roundup
View the story "Twitter roundup (10/26-10/31)" on Storify]
There isn't much to disagree with over the TNR article about overrated thinkers.
I wish they would have included Bill Maher, but this is the first time I've noticed TNR produced annual lists. Maybe he was on a list a few years back and I didn't catch it. I used to be all about him - even have an autographed copy of one of his first books and a photo that was signed, too. I enjoyed his unpredictability, but since he was fired from ABC, he's become somewhat stale and predictable (but he's still funny).
Twitter roundup
[View the story "From my Twitter feed (10/17-10/21)" on Storify]
Please keep them. I only find about 10% of them click-worthy, but it does make it easier to surf around looking for interesting articles like from Enik Rising. Thanks, Brendan.
Twitter roundups: Should I keep them?
I've been posting compilations of my Twitter feed as an experiment and to provide content between posts. Are those valuable to you, or would prefer irregular posts with nothing in between? Please let me know by email or in comments.
Somehow, I knew the latest Truman article from TNR would be referenced here. Give it a week, and here it is.
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (8/15-8/24) Brendan Nyhan Aug 26, 2011 at 6:16 PM Powered by Keepstream BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan What happens when poli sci helps rethink the modern campaign? Highly recommend new @sissenberg e-book on Perry '06/'10 http://t.co/STkloNH Rick Perry and His ...
Brendan, honestly, what kind of control will David Leondhardt have over writers? The NYT has to fill columns with stories. Is there any telling if he change the culture there to publish stories that have more of an empirical basis as opposed to the usual 'crude narrative' as you call it?
I know nothing of how newspapers work, but even if Leonhardt produces more stories like the ones you wish to see, there's still the David Brooks and the Maureen Dowds to the contend with who will still manufacture the same old hackneyed commentary when it comes to politics anyway.
Why I'm excited about the David Leonhardt era
The selection of New York Times economics columnist David Leonhardt as the newspaper's Washington bureau chief was widely acclaimed when it was announced last month, and rightly so -- Leonhardt, a favorite of mine, was recently awarded a Pulitzer Prize for "his graceful penetration of America’s c...
Bert and Ernie gay? Really?
A modest compromise: How about instead of petitioning for Bert and Ernie to get married, why not have the creators at Sesame Street introduce two new puppets of the same gender living together in a relationship?
Can we then get on with life?
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (8/9-8/15) Brendan Nyhan Aug 15, 2011 at 1:52 PM Powered by Keepstream BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Reminder for Perry: In a democracy, the priority is that the military respects civilian leadership, not the converse http://j.mp/pakl5V Perry running to restor...
Okay, but let me ask a related question though. Since the economy was expanding so rapidly in the 1990s, how were the Republicans able to win both houses of Congress in 1994?
I was always taught that the party in opposition almost always gains seats in Congress during the midterms, just as an historical norm.
Of Twitter, Nate Silver, and straw men
One of the problems with Twitter is that people can easily take what you write out of context. Last Friday, for instance, Nate Silver criticized me for "poor political punditry" because of a tweet in which I said "A few more jobs reports like this and Romney et al. are going to be measuring the d...
I think Abramowitz missed discussing a point about why closet partisans refer to themselves as independents. Labels help us identify and understand people/things in general, but to do so carries a stigma. Along with the good comes the bad.
I.e., you're a Republican/conservative, therefore you're this, this, and that, but the reality most conservatives or liberals are not 100% conservative all the time. Thus, giving a label about someone gives us blanket assumptions about who they are, when really there's depth and nuance that isn't immediately looked at.
Twitter roundup
From my Twitter feed (7/5-7/12) Brendan Nyhan Jul 12, 2011 at 1:22 PM Powered by Keepstream BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@jonathanchait says Obama is about as strong as Clinton was at this point, but pers. income growth=3% Clinton, 1% Obama http://j.mp/npOEFf Checking In On Old Fri...
Brendan, isn't RDPI - real disposable personal income - itself a lagging indicator that gets reported the same way unemployment figures do?
Of Twitter, Nate Silver, and straw men
One of the problems with Twitter is that people can easily take what you write out of context. Last Friday, for instance, Nate Silver criticized me for "poor political punditry" because of a tweet in which I said "A few more jobs reports like this and Romney et al. are going to be measuring the d...
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