I also find it funny that such a group of intelligent people were ignorant of 'grok', maybe it's a word of a cooler era ;-). Oxford reference is not everything, always try the urban dictionary https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=grok for those difficult moments of need. Keep up the good work people. Stay Cool.

Nevin, well done, you called the max incorrectly twice in 2012(?), and now you don't call the max (correctly) twice in 2015. This shows what a fine well balanced blog you run. Looking forward to an exciting season despite your well balanced comments about the possible early and low extent not being indicative of anything in particular.

Neven, you may be wrong, but I think you've nailed it this time. I've noted some comments on the forum, especially from Jim Pettit, who is always is careful not to speculate, that we have seen the max and the future will be interesting. This is just so unpredictable and the effects on the climate may be surprising.

Ambivalent, I can assure you it's not just you, 'cause there's me as well. The meaning of what we see is another matter.

Hi Anthropocene, have a look over in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum at the top of the page. This should lead you to a thread to discuss your questions. Cheers

Andreas, how do you create these amazing images? I would like to know if it is possible to get the same level of detail for other parts of the arctic (you know we all have our favorites).

Thanks @philiponfire , I am not as literate as jd, and my self censored comment is 'goodness gracious'. Thanks for that, gives us all a little perspective

Season's Greetings to all, and thank you for a great year. Jim's animated 3D graphs are truly awesome.

Wipneus, I was just reading your comment and thought I should say how much I agree with what you are saying about data formatting, and that's from an former FORTRAN programmer!

I've just been having a play with the global climate dashboard at http://www.climate.gov/ . Very easy to use for the lay person and with links to the data. Although it would be nice to have a csv to download. Chris's point that there is stacks of data is true, but there are issues with getting it in a format that us mere mortals with an excel spreadsheet can use. Plus.google... raises the point of SD and that may be useful as well. It would be nice to have that dashboard as a download, or a plug-in, so that it can be viewed separately or linked to.

Larry, I think Connie is on much the same track as me. I'll need to try and work up a graphic example, which may not be today. I'm going to follow the link that Connie supplied as well. I don't think this is about prediction as much as interpreting past events in a user friendly fashion using a tool like Excel and pivot charts. I was going to look at Neven's data sets on Google share for source data. I like the way that warming decades can be presented as a column chart. Like this one http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/09/you-cant-deny-global-warming-after-seeing-this-graph/

Hi Larry, I normally feel don't comment on Neven's blog because everyone else is so erudite; but on this subject I may have something to offer. As a data analyst I am sometimes asked to 'bucket' data for marketing and management analysis, and often graph the buckets by popularity. Are big ice years getting more popular or is small ice the trend? I haven't tried it but I'd guess five buckets would do the job.

2.5 +/- 0.5 Just based on a continuation of last years trend. I don't think it will go up, it's just a question of how far down.

I came across this from npr and I thought it was rather weird with a bit of Christmas : http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/12/17/167469845/suddenly-theres-a-meadow-in-the-ocean-with-flowers-everywhere

Back on the Ice: why is the Cryosphere area anomaly still decreasing. Can we have a refreeze thread Neven (TIA)

Hi Guys, I've been following this thread with some interest. What I'd like to see is a plot of arctic seas against ice. I'd just like to see the 'other side of the coin'. I think the exponential is a natural growth curve, it is the sea that is growing. I'm happy to say that I lack the information, skill and time to do this, but I feel it would be worthwhile in the current situation.

I noticed today that the CT Area of 2.372 is less than the anomaly of 2.417. This is really weird and I wonder if this phenomenon has a name?

Hi All, My suggestion is to clone another typepad blog dealing with the impacts/philosophy/politics of the melt, my initial feeling is a name of 'neven2', in the future maybe we can clone again.

Thanks Glenn, I'm shocked at what has happened to the Cornwell Alliance, thank you for raising the issue. The Cornwell Declaration is an aberation and does not represent the concepts of stewardship in conservative religion. This is really weird shit!

Lodger, let me try that again without hitting the enter key. I've read of another interesting effect of gas in water, which is to decrease the bouyancy of the water. Read it in some mysteries of the sea. Apparently the gas can caus a ship to sink suddenly, even a large one like a drilling barge. Just a thought.

Lodger,

If "Denial is a river in Greenland", what is really happening?

On the subject on Manhattan transafers, I'd have to say http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Couldn%27t_Be_Hotter

Yep really good, I recommend this one, very informative. Thanks for that Neven.

Neven,I'm lost for polite words