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I also find it funny that such a group of intelligent people were ignorant of 'grok', maybe it's a word of a cooler era ;-). Oxford reference is not everything, always try the urban dictionary https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=grok for those difficult moments of need. Keep up the good work people. Stay Cool.
Winter analysis addendum
A couple of things were missing from the 2015/2016 winter analysis posted a few days ago, and so I've decided to present them in this separate blog post. Most of these images come from the website of NSIDC research scientist Andrew Slater. Another way to express how warm or not-cold the Arctic ...
Nevin, well done, you called the max incorrectly twice in 2012(?), and now you don't call the max (correctly) twice in 2015. This shows what a fine well balanced blog you run. Looking forward to an exciting season despite your well balanced comments about the possible early and low extent not being indicative of anything in particular.
The Ns are calling the maximum
Here's a quick update on everything related to our good friend Max. In the past couple of days organisations like the NSIDC, NASA and NOAA have announced the annual event of the Arctic sea ice pack reaching its largest size at the end of the freezing season. This has been picked up widely by the...
Neven, you may be wrong, but I think you've nailed it this time. I've noted some comments on the forum, especially from Jim Pettit, who is always is careful not to speculate, that we have seen the max and the future will be interesting. This is just so unpredictable and the effects on the climate may be surprising.
Mad max?
Okay, I'm not calling the max - short for maximum extent of the sea ice pack that marks the end of the freezing season - as I've sworn not to do that anymore since 2012, when I called the max twice, only to see the trend line bounce up higher and later. But this year something really interestin...
Ambivalent, I can assure you it's not just you, 'cause there's me as well. The meaning of what we see is another matter.
PIOMAS March 2014
Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: During the month of February the gap between this year and the other years from the post-2010 period ...
Hi Anthropocene, have a look over in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum at the top of the page. This should lead you to a thread to discuss your questions. Cheers
Decreasing Arctic albedo boosts global warming
A new paper in PNAS, called Observational determination of albedo caused by vanishing sea ice, reminds me of scientific work Peter Wadhams published a year and a half ago wherein he showed Arctic ice melt is 'like adding 20 years of CO2 emissions'. He based this assertion on calculations, as ca...
Andreas, how do you create these amazing images? I would like to know if it is possible to get the same level of detail for other parts of the arctic (you know we all have our favorites).
2014 Nares Strait ice bridges
This remains one of my favourite fascinating events in the Arctic. University of Delaware professor in oceanography Andreas Muenchow, the Nares Strait go-to guy, posted the following on his Icy Seas blog: Formation of Nares Strait Ice Bridges in 2014 Darkness and cold covers North Greenland, El...
Thanks @philiponfire , I am not as literate as jd, and my self censored comment is 'goodness gracious'. Thanks for that, gives us all a little perspective
Looking for winter weirdness 2014
There has been some stuff in the past 2 months that could be linked to erratic jet stream behaviour - which in turn could be influenced by Arctic sea ice loss - like a series of storms battering Europe's Northwest, such as the St. Jude storm at the end of October, followed in December by Xaver, ...
Season's Greetings to all, and thank you for a great year. Jim's animated 3D graphs are truly awesome.
Merry christPIOMAS
Santa Claus was worried that his home would soon disappear (it won't, it's safe in Walmart for the time being) and decided to look for information on Arctic sea ice. After all, the best thing you can do when fearing something, is try to understand it. Santa read and thought and read some more f...
Wipneus, I was just reading your comment and thought I should say how much I agree with what you are saying about data formatting, and that's from an former FORTRAN programmer!
How could Arctic data be more friendly?
How might Arctic data, such as the iconic datasets followed so closely on this blog, be made easier to access and use? In connection with a new project called the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), I’d like to collect your suggestions and pass them along to Arctic researchers. Arctic Sea Ice blo...
I've just been having a play with the global climate dashboard at http://www.climate.gov/ . Very easy to use for the lay person and with links to the data. Although it would be nice to have a csv to download. Chris's point that there is stacks of data is true, but there are issues with getting it in a format that us mere mortals with an excel spreadsheet can use. Plus.google... raises the point of SD and that may be useful as well. It would be nice to have that dashboard as a download, or a plug-in, so that it can be viewed separately or linked to.
How could Arctic data be more friendly?
How might Arctic data, such as the iconic datasets followed so closely on this blog, be made easier to access and use? In connection with a new project called the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), I’d like to collect your suggestions and pass them along to Arctic researchers. Arctic Sea Ice blo...
Larry, I think Connie is on much the same track as me. I'll need to try and work up a graphic example, which may not be today. I'm going to follow the link that Connie supplied as well. I don't think this is about prediction as much as interpreting past events in a user friendly fashion using a tool like Excel and pivot charts. I was going to look at Neven's data sets on Google share for source data. I like the way that warming decades can be presented as a column chart. Like this one http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/07/09/you-cant-deny-global-warming-after-seeing-this-graph/
How could Arctic data be more friendly?
How might Arctic data, such as the iconic datasets followed so closely on this blog, be made easier to access and use? In connection with a new project called the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), I’d like to collect your suggestions and pass them along to Arctic researchers. Arctic Sea Ice blo...
Hi Larry, I normally feel don't comment on Neven's blog because everyone else is so erudite; but on this subject I may have something to offer. As a data analyst I am sometimes asked to 'bucket' data for marketing and management analysis, and often graph the buckets by popularity. Are big ice years getting more popular or is small ice the trend? I haven't tried it but I'd guess five buckets would do the job.
How could Arctic data be more friendly?
How might Arctic data, such as the iconic datasets followed so closely on this blog, be made easier to access and use? In connection with a new project called the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), I’d like to collect your suggestions and pass them along to Arctic researchers. Arctic Sea Ice blo...
2.5 +/- 0.5 Just based on a continuation of last years trend. I don't think it will go up, it's just a question of how far down.
Crowd-Source Prediction of Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
How does the collective wisdom of Arctic Sea Ice blog participants compare with expert scientific analysis in forecasting the September sea ice extent? This question seems worth exploring with a crowd-source experiment. You are all invited to submit, as comments to this post, your best guess for...
I came across this from npr and I thought it was rather weird with a bit of Christmas : http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/12/17/167469845/suddenly-theres-a-meadow-in-the-ocean-with-flowers-everywhere
Looking for winter weirdness 3
It's been a while since we had a first couple of signs of winter weirdness, back in October, when superstorm Sandy took a 90 degree left turn due to a ridge of blocking highs along southern Greenland, and some cold air spilled from the central Arctic over Europe, bringing very early snow to the ...
Back on the Ice: why is the Cryosphere area anomaly still decreasing. Can we have a refreeze thread Neven (TIA)
Naive Predictions of 2013 Sea Ice
These predictions are naive in the sense that they are not based on a physical model, nor other measurements apart from the 30-odd year history of the index in question. Moreover, they are made a year in advance as winter freeze-up is just starting. The predictions are simply If ... Then stateme...
Hi Guys, I've been following this thread with some interest. What I'd like to see is a plot of arctic seas against ice. I'd just like to see the 'other side of the coin'. I think the exponential is a natural growth curve, it is the sea that is growing. I'm happy to say that I lack the information, skill and time to do this, but I feel it would be worthwhile in the current situation.
PIOMAS October 2012 (minimum)
We already knew a few weeks ago that the PIOMAS sea ice volume record had been broken, but with the latest data release by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington we now know the minimum sea ice volume for 2012, as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation...
I noticed today that the CT Area of 2.372 is less than the anomaly of 2.417. This is really weird and I wonder if this phenomenon has a name?
ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC h...
Hi All,
My suggestion is to clone another typepad blog dealing with the impacts/philosophy/politics of the melt, my initial feeling is a name of 'neven2', in the future maybe we can clone again.
Why Arctic sea ice shouldn't leave anyone cold
The sea ice is leaving us a bit more every year. It's time to start contemplating its absence, which is why I teamed up with Kevin McKinney to write an extended version of the shorter piece you might see pop up here and there. Because you know, disappearing sea ice isn't without consequences. An...
Thanks Glenn, I'm shocked at what has happened to the Cornwell Alliance, thank you for raising the issue. The Cornwell Declaration is an aberation and does not represent the concepts of stewardship in conservative religion. This is really weird shit!
Similar melts from 1938-43?
I'm supposed to be on a holiday and should let this one slide, but it's too much. I was expecting fake skeptics to remain mostly silent in face of the ice massacre up north, but apparently they acutely sense how big this blow is to the remaining shred of their credibility, and so they upped the ...
Lodger, let me try that again without hitting the enter key. I've read of another interesting effect of gas in water, which is to decrease the bouyancy of the water. Read it in some mysteries of the sea. Apparently the gas can caus a ship to sink suddenly, even a large one like a drilling barge. Just a thought.
Arctic summer storm open thread 1
As the storm is still there, big, but no longer strong, and comment threads fill up quickly, I figured it's time for an open thread. And yes, it's a bit of an update as well, with interesting comments and graphs. But first the updated animation. Now that the swathe of ice floes in the East Siber...
Lodger,
Arctic summer storm open thread 1
As the storm is still there, big, but no longer strong, and comment threads fill up quickly, I figured it's time for an open thread. And yes, it's a bit of an update as well, with interesting comments and graphs. But first the updated animation. Now that the swathe of ice floes in the East Siber...
If "Denial is a river in Greenland", what is really happening?
Arctic storm part 3: detachment
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Arctic summer storm is still there. After approximately 48 hours (which is long for an Arctic summer storm) it has weakened some compared to yesterday or the day before, but as far as I can see sea level pressure in the centre of the storm is still around 970 mb, w...
On the subject on Manhattan transafers, I'd have to say http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Couldn%27t_Be_Hotter
ASI 2012 update 8: it shouldn't, but it does
During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) and Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2011 period (NSIDC ha...
Yep really good, I recommend this one, very informative. Thanks for that Neven.
Tom Wagner of NASA explains
Hat-tip to Climate Denial Crock of the Week: He's good!
Neven,I'm lost for polite words
The Double Recovery of Arctic Sea Ice
This is a re-post from Dr. Inferno's concise but brilliant analysis: The Double Recovery of Arctic Sea Ice Just two months ago we learned that Arctic Sea Ice Is Normal For The First Time In At Least Seven Years http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/04/26/nsidc-arctic-ice-extent-normal-for-t...
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