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As a counterpoint, I still have grass on the back yard thanks to La Niña. Even my pine tree has survived. From the Central Highlands, Victoria, Oz. A mild 30°C today. A Merry Christmas to all. Listening to Miles Davis to stay cool.
December 2011 Open Thread
We sleepily await the newest updates from NSIDC and PIOMAS. In the meantime over at the SciencePoles website from the International Polar Foundation there's a very interesting interview with professor Martin Jakobsson: Investigating Arctic Paleoclimates.
Hi All, I share some over Neven's concerns, however these reading are all provisional and are outliers, which means they need to be confirmed. On the other hand, maybe we are all in denial of what is happening, but that is for the future to judge.
Arctic methane: Russian researchers report
I vowed not to talk about this because it literally makes me sick to my stomach, but it's too important to deny. We all know about the vast deposits of methane clathrates on the Siberian continental shelf. They are kept in place by pressure and low temperatures. However, the temperatures (SAT as...
Hi Neven, thank you, and your contributors, for your intelligent commentary on the melt. Good luck with the winter, I'll be keeping an eye out for rain down here in Oz.
SIE 2011 update 21: post mortem
During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...
Neven, it's not just the ice, I find the business with Monnett quite surreal. Thank you for blogging it, and all the other great stuff as well :-)
Kafka, eat your heart out
This post blends in well with the previous one. Eli Rabett has put his two little front teeth in the Charles Monnett story and is not letting go: PEER on IG Pursuit of Dead Polar Bear Who is this Eric May? Who made the original complaint? Inquiring auditors want to know (BTW, Monnett has the ...
Hi Neven, I think there is much to happen before the fat ladys sings. Could you do a post on what's happening with the icepack north of greenland and the separation from the land. You are on safe territory with opinion here as I feel this was unexpected and a new unique feature to the melt. But what does it mean? Over to you...
IJIS SIE: 5 million km2 mark passed
Seke Rob has been treating us with fantastic graphs for many weeks now, and it's high time I picked one out for a highlight. IJIS sea ice extent broke through the 5 million km2 barrier yesterday. This graph shows how many days it has taken to drop from one million to the next from the date of ma...
@Anu, I like your logic, I'd been looking for a pattern and you seem to have solved my issue. 2007 was an outlier, I'll look again with enlightened eyes at the trends.
PIOMAS Version 2
As some of you have noticed the people at the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics Laboratory of the University of Washington have been very busy upgrading their PIOMAS model. As stated on their website: This time series of ice volume is generated with an updated version of PIOMAS (June-...
Hi Guys, I also would like to vote lower, in one of the three categories that idunno suggested. I also had the crazy idea that blue ice is caused by rain, is this possible?
Poll Results
It has been almost 3 months since I put up the poll widget in the right side bar. Now that the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook has come out, containing the results of another poll conducted by Anthony Watts of the Wattsupwiththat blog, it seems to be a good time to do a first update on this our ASI blog ...
Neven it's good to you you covering ice volume. How data is collected for these models is interesting. They are based on ensemble data, with radar playing a very limited role at the moment. Most data comes from floats and other on-site mearurement. Here's a paper about TOPAZ data http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/pxs/wmoda5/Oral/Bertino_Sakov.pdf
, it's a little old but covers the subject nicely.
Ice thickness models
One of the most intruiging and elusive aspects of Arctic sea ice is its overall thickness, and by implication the total volume of sea ice. The bigger the volume, the longer it will take for the Arctic Ocean to become effectively ice-free in summer. Unfortunately, despite many different kinds o...
Slightly OT. The bit of the Peterman Glacier, that broke off last year and had the beacon on it, has left the arctic circle http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557 . Is this Lockerby Island? I haven't looked for it on MODIS yet.
MODIS mode is ON
People sometimes say that watching the Arctic sea ice melt is like watching paint dry. Well, let me ask them this: does their freshly painted wall have a NASA satellite monitoring it? Because if they do, I'm coming over with a beer and a bag of salted pistachios. Yes, we're finally there. Th...
Hi Neven, Very nice new look, the comments are much better now that they are black and white. Good for tired eyes.
New design
I've fiddled long enough now with this new and simple design, so here we go: There's a column to the right and left now. There's a link to the Arctic Daily Graphs page in the navigation bar on top. You can mail me through a link in the navigation bar (I check this account every other day). Ther...
Hi Everyone, I hadn't noticed the graph http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ext_rates_n.png , that RunInCircles referred to. . It look to me like the graph will cross the axis in the next week and then the melt is on!
Open Thread 6
I think this is going to be the last Open Thread. Things are getting really interesting now as we approach Arctic sea ice maximum extent and area. Most of us are already awake, but still in chill-out mode: I think I have found a way to upgrade to a paid TypePad version without having to take a...
Lodger, I am always amazed where human settlements survive,I assume the settlements at Disko Bay rely on the ice for winter hunting. Perhaps they can find alternatives but it would be a huge change. It looks like the Labrador current is running all the way up the coast and I suspect permanent change here. Any opinions on west coast Greenland climate change and currents?
Open Thread 5
We're still hibernating, but with one eye open. Global sea ice area is stretching for a new low (hat-tip Derek Moran): I've converted the CT global sea ice area data to a spreadsheet and here are the minima for the previous six years (hat-tip Phil.): 2005: 14.732 (Feb 10) 2006: 14.392 (...
Daniel, that Hansen 2011 paper is just plain scary, and in very plain English. It's a real shame that there is so little interest in these things in the blogosphere. The long term temperature graphs are very interesting and show all sorts of changes.
Breaking: CryoSat ice data now open to all!
I figured this would be worth de-hibernating for (hat-tip Gas Glo). From the ESA homepage: 1 February 2011 Scientists can now tap into a flow of new data that will help to determine exactly how Earth's ice is changing. This information from ESA's CryoSat mission is set to make a step change in o...
Claire, re: "this might be THE wakeup call". I think food prices are too difficult for people to to directly associate with climate change. The rising price of fuel may well have a greater effect. I read Neven's comments "you can watch how I slowly evolve into a denialist", and he is right. Melting ice will not do it either, it is too far away. The "wakeup call" will more likely come when it is too late, and the water rises over the seawalls of a changed environment, until then we are all in denial.
On the bright side, I'm looking forward to the coming melt season and the input from Cryosat-2. I'm even wondering whether Hudson bay will ice up completely or not. I'm also legally allowed to water my garden now, which is excellent and I shall do it while I can.
Open Thread 3
First off I'd like to inform you that I have finally managed to write a piece on my view of current economics. I didn't think it would fit here (as I believe this blog should remain about Arctic sea ice mostly), so I was lucky that Michael Tobis accepted it as a guest blog over at In It For t...
Hi Lodger, I'd like to see a post on salinity. I can see the lower psu on the east coast of Greenland, but what does the rest of it mean. Is salinity being generated in the water by the ice or is is flowing in from the ocean. Please enlighten us!
Open Thread 3
First off I'd like to inform you that I have finally managed to write a piece on my view of current economics. I didn't think it would fit here (as I believe this blog should remain about Arctic sea ice mostly), so I was lucky that Michael Tobis accepted it as a guest blog over at In It For t...
Just a note on the little Petermann ice island, it's heading south! http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557
Open Thread 3
First off I'd like to inform you that I have finally managed to write a piece on my view of current economics. I didn't think it would fit here (as I believe this blog should remain about Arctic sea ice mostly), so I was lucky that Michael Tobis accepted it as a guest blog over at In It For t...
Hi Everyone, we live in interesting times. Hi wipneus, I'd like to see your graph with the log curve! My experience from project estimation is that many natural processes tend to follow log curves, it's the curve of growth but maybe the curve of decline as well. I've been looking at IJIS and something appears to be happening there. I was looking at Andrews graph of DMI and I felt I wanted to see the SD and anomaly for those temperatures going through the season and the area under the graph for the anomaly. I like that topaz stuff too, but I can't make much sense of it.
Open Thread 3
First off I'd like to inform you that I have finally managed to write a piece on my view of current economics. I didn't think it would fit here (as I believe this blog should remain about Arctic sea ice mostly), so I was lucky that Michael Tobis accepted it as a guest blog over at In It For t...
Hey Lodger! Cryosat delivers OK! This is amazing to actually see the Beaufort Gyre, I can hardly wait for more.
Open Thread 3
First off I'd like to inform you that I have finally managed to write a piece on my view of current economics. I didn't think it would fit here (as I believe this blog should remain about Arctic sea ice mostly), so I was lucky that Michael Tobis accepted it as a guest blog over at In It For t...
Neven, I suspect we might be coming out of hibernation early. The sea ice is doing strange things and I've also noticed that the AO forecast and even the ENSO forecast seem to be off track. And, as we've all noticed, the weather is really strange! Also the new Icesat will be available shortly, which will be the start of the ice season.
Open Thread 3
First off I'd like to inform you that I have finally managed to write a piece on my view of current economics. I didn't think it would fit here (as I believe this blog should remain about Arctic sea ice mostly), so I was lucky that Michael Tobis accepted it as a guest blog over at In It For t...
Well just when it was getting boring, another side of the change in the arctic shows itself. I agree with Anu, we have a challenger. I hope none of the bookies already paid out!
SIE update 30: baby, it ain't over 'til it's over
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
Hi Neven, thanks for the interesting blog, and thanks to Kevin for pointing out your blog to me. There still seem to be some action in the SIE yet, but it's almost over. I'm amazed by the fissures in the sea-ice visible in MODIS. I wonder what the long term effect of all this will be, and it looks like we might all find out sooner rather than later.
Sea ice extent update 29: riding the slide
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2006-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
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