As a counterpoint, I still have grass on the back yard thanks to La Niña. Even my pine tree has survived. From the Central Highlands, Victoria, Oz. A mild 30°C today. A Merry Christmas to all. Listening to Miles Davis to stay cool.

Hi All, I share some over Neven's concerns, however these reading are all provisional and are outliers, which means they need to be confirmed. On the other hand, maybe we are all in denial of what is happening, but that is for the future to judge.

Hi Neven, thank you, and your contributors, for your intelligent commentary on the melt. Good luck with the winter, I'll be keeping an eye out for rain down here in Oz.

Neven, it's not just the ice, I find the business with Monnett quite surreal. Thank you for blogging it, and all the other great stuff as well :-)

Hi Neven, I think there is much to happen before the fat ladys sings. Could you do a post on what's happening with the icepack north of greenland and the separation from the land. You are on safe territory with opinion here as I feel this was unexpected and a new unique feature to the melt. But what does it mean? Over to you...

@Anu, I like your logic, I'd been looking for a pattern and you seem to have solved my issue. 2007 was an outlier, I'll look again with enlightened eyes at the trends.

Hi Guys, I also would like to vote lower, in one of the three categories that idunno suggested. I also had the crazy idea that blue ice is caused by rain, is this possible?

Neven it's good to you you covering ice volume. How data is collected for these models is interesting. They are based on ensemble data, with radar playing a very limited role at the moment. Most data comes from floats and other on-site mearurement. Here's a paper about TOPAZ data http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/pxs/wmoda5/Oral/Bertino_Sakov.pdf , it's a little old but covers the subject nicely.

Slightly OT. The bit of the Peterman Glacier, that broke off last year and had the beacon on it, has left the arctic circle http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557 . Is this Lockerby Island? I haven't looked for it on MODIS yet.

Hi Neven, Very nice new look, the comments are much better now that they are black and white. Good for tired eyes.

Hi Everyone, I hadn't noticed the graph http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ext_rates_n.png , that RunInCircles referred to. . It look to me like the graph will cross the axis in the next week and then the melt is on!

Lodger, I am always amazed where human settlements survive,I assume the settlements at Disko Bay rely on the ice for winter hunting. Perhaps they can find alternatives but it would be a huge change. It looks like the Labrador current is running all the way up the coast and I suspect permanent change here. Any opinions on west coast Greenland climate change and currents?

Daniel, that Hansen 2011 paper is just plain scary, and in very plain English. It's a real shame that there is so little interest in these things in the blogosphere. The long term temperature graphs are very interesting and show all sorts of changes.

Claire, re: "this might be THE wakeup call". I think food prices are too difficult for people to to directly associate with climate change. The rising price of fuel may well have a greater effect. I read Neven's comments "you can watch how I slowly evolve into a denialist", and he is right. Melting ice will not do it either, it is too far away. The "wakeup call" will more likely come when it is too late, and the water rises over the seawalls of a changed environment, until then we are all in denial. On the bright side, I'm looking forward to the coming melt season and the input from Cryosat-2. I'm even wondering whether Hudson bay will ice up completely or not. I'm also legally allowed to water my garden now, which is excellent and I shall do it while I can.

Hi Lodger, I'd like to see a post on salinity. I can see the lower psu on the east coast of Greenland, but what does the rest of it mean. Is salinity being generated in the water by the ice or is is flowing in from the ocean. Please enlighten us!

Just a note on the little Petermann ice island, it's heading south! http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=47557

Hi Everyone, we live in interesting times. Hi wipneus, I'd like to see your graph with the log curve! My experience from project estimation is that many natural processes tend to follow log curves, it's the curve of growth but maybe the curve of decline as well. I've been looking at IJIS and something appears to be happening there. I was looking at Andrews graph of DMI and I felt I wanted to see the SD and anomaly for those temperatures going through the season and the area under the graph for the anomaly. I like that topaz stuff too, but I can't make much sense of it.

Hey Lodger! Cryosat delivers OK! This is amazing to actually see the Beaufort Gyre, I can hardly wait for more.

Neven, I suspect we might be coming out of hibernation early. The sea ice is doing strange things and I've also noticed that the AO forecast and even the ENSO forecast seem to be off track. And, as we've all noticed, the weather is really strange! Also the new Icesat will be available shortly, which will be the start of the ice season.

Well just when it was getting boring, another side of the change in the arctic shows itself. I agree with Anu, we have a challenger. I hope none of the bookies already paid out!

Hi Neven, thanks for the interesting blog, and thanks to Kevin for pointing out your blog to me. There still seem to be some action in the SIE yet, but it's almost over. I'm amazed by the fissures in the sea-ice visible in MODIS. I wonder what the long term effect of all this will be, and it looks like we might all find out sooner rather than later.