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Bryant Morganelli
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Whatever, you two are [snip] [Come on, keep your cool; N.]
And the sea ice is on track for well above 2012. It's even above several years prior to 2015, so that goes to show you that your melt projections are off like Wadhams.
The fact that you use Arctic News as a source is enough to make me question your credibility, what with their focus on spikes instead of overall trends. If you look closely at the NOAA CH4 trends, you will see a less alarming trend. And I've kept careful track of the wildfire situation, and the mistake you're making is looking at just the month of June instead of the whole year.
Not to say it's not concerning. It certainly is, but as with sea ice this year and people saying it would be below 2012, let's wait and reserve judgment.
Jdallen, that's not really surprising at all. The fact remains it still has a ways to go to catch up to 2004 and conditions are improving at the moment. Not great, but not as bad as a week ago. Indeed, wildfires become more common as time goes by with warming. This is nothing unexpected to scientists.
I find myself disagreeing a bit with Bob. The wildfires in Alaska are mostly contained for the moment and it still has a long way to go to catch up to the 2004 total for the entire fire season.
With all due respect, Neven, your understanding is flawed here. Have you completely lost your ability to reason? Grow up. Wake up. Get real. How is that polite? But to go that one better and support drilling in one of the most sensitive and difficult places on the whole freaking planet - I am flabbergasted by the over the top level of stupid that requires. Again, he calls me stupid. And I never said I supported drilling, which he would have known if he had actually bothered to read what I wrote.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
Again Sam, name calling. You seem to have no respect for others when making your points, so I will ignore you. Neven, can you say something to him please? First of all, if the Paris agreement goes forward, as I think it will, then it will keeps us below four degrees celsius and further actions to keep us even further below. Plus, you completely ignore the potential of geoengineering to cool the climate. And last of all, you can't predict with absolute certainty what actions the world will take and how temperature will play out in the next few decades I base my words on science, so don't go accusing me of making it about beliefs. If you want a personal war, I'm not going to oblige you.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
The terms? I didn't catch that on the comments part. Anyway, it's just that Sam's post is the exact reason why I speak out against doomsdayers. That type of language and actions, such as chaining oneself to a pole, hurts the climate change cause. The general public gets pissed off when they see and hear things like that, and are more likely not to be terribly supportive. Rational discussion based on data, and not going off the deep end and predicting armageddon like McKibben and some of his people are prone to do, is the way to go. And yeah, I'll get around to a retweet later on today.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
But by allowing Shell to go and drilling the Arctic he's undermining he own professed goals of reaching the 2°C target and showing how hollow his words are. This ability to do one thing and say another with regards to climate change is something that psychologists have begun to call "stealth denial" Boa, Here's where your argument falters a bit. The EPA is bringing the hammer down on fossil fuel emissions from new and existing power plants, the worst emitters of them all. A guy in stealth denial wouldn't be instructing the EPA to do that. That being said, I agree that the Shell situation is paradoxical, but to say Obama's in denial is too much. What I think he's trying to do with this Shell move is two-fold. He wants to maintain the current oil power supply until renewables are ready to take over, which could be a while until everyone stops freaking out over nuclear power. And I think this move is political in the sense that he's trying to win over moderate Republicans to his environmental plans. I certainly don't agree with his giving approval, but I understand why he's probably doing it. Jim, So you're betting on ice-free by the end of 2022, huh? Are you at least open to the possibility of it being later than that? My thought is more late 2020s, early 2030s, in line with Mark Serreze.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
Mind you, I reckon the landfast ice around the Mackenzie Delta is turning distinctly blue-ish? And the delta itself is turning brown-ish. Jim, what are you implying?
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
Sam, Since when I did I say supported this move? You're putting words in my mouth, and calling me stupid and unable to reason is on par with Cincinattus' shows of disrespect, yet I don't see you being reprimanded like he was. And you'd be surprised at how good punishing regulations can be. As I recall, BP was fined 4.5 billion dollars for their spill. So your regulations argument falls flat. I am heavily opposed to this move, and your type of attack and doomsday rhetoric is exactly the type of thing I'm talking about. That sort of tactic is a ticket to turning people off and hurting your own cause. Neven, I never said I supported this move. I fully oppose it and think it's a stupid idea. Again, you guys are twisting my words. And I stand by what I said about McKibben. He barely even mentions the geography and spends no time on the specifics of it. Not to mention, nobody mentions Shell still has to get a number of permits, the drilling is only in very shallow depths, and only during summer months. Still a stupid idea, but the likelihood of a major spill goes down. And I think you're off base on liberal denial. If Obama was in denial, he wouldn't be having the EPA crack down on emissions substantially.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks Tony, Neven, I know you're pissed about this story, as you should be. But I have to say McKibben does nothing here to advance his point. He's more about name-calling instead of actually using facts to break down the Shell argument. For instance, he says nothing about the remote geography of the Chuchki Sea that makes drilling difficult and the ability to respond quickly to a spill is severely hampered. And that goes back to his writing in general, which I've read a fair portion of. He spends too much time trying to scare people and not enough time on data to support his points, which he could easily do if he actually put the effort into it. What I'm trying to say is that he doesn't follow your tactics, Neven. You sir, carefully analyze data and make your conclusions without doomsday rhetoric. That is the most effective way to sway people, as opposed to using heavy-handed rhetoric that turns people off. That type of tactic is not helpful and harms the environmental movement more than it helps. That's why I come here, to listen to rational discussion and conclusions formed from it.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
Don't you think it's a little bit early to predicting a record minimum? I think it's better to wait until June or July when we have a better idea of where the summer trend is going. Right now 2015 is on pace with 2004 and 2006, and as Neven said and the NSIDC trends from 1995-2001 indicate, a strong El Nino doesn't necessarily mean a huge drop in minimum. This is not to say I necessarily disagree with you that a record minimum is a distinct possibility, but it's too early to make predictions now. If these trends are still going on in late July, then I will fully agree with you on a record minimum. But right now it's uncertain.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
While I think the move is not the best idea, Mckibben saying Obama is denying climate change is over the top. Shell will be subject to strict regulations, which doesn't give a whole lot of reassurance, but I think Bill is going overboard a bit here.
Toggle Commented May 14, 2015 on Bill McKibben nails it at Arctic Sea Ice
I fully agree. Reasonable discussion of what's going on is paramount.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
I would say a leveling off makes sense considering the NSIDC numbers currently have 2015 ahead of 2004 and 2006. And that Minnesota article on a new low is misleading, failing to take into account that minimums really are not connected to maximums. We indeed could get a record low, but to say that is certain is unwise at this point.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
D, if a strong El Nino does take effect, that obviously means the minimum will be on the low side. But I wonder if that's enough for a record. It seems like a crapshoot. Would you agree?
Toggle Commented May 13, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
According to the NSIDC data from the years 1995-2001, the period of time around the last monster El Nino, the minimum didn't really deviate from the long-term trend of decline. Take that for what you will, but the epic melt is uncertain I think.
Toggle Commented May 13, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
I have a question for ChrisReynolds. If there's a strong El Nino this year, what does that mean for the September minimum? Does that mean it will be in the lower range, and if so, in a record low?
Toggle Commented May 13, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
While George's prediction regarding huge melt in the next week or so is somewhat true according to the latest NSIDC numbers, I think his prediction is a little bit premature considering the uncertain nature of the Arctic. Your thoughts, Neven?
Toggle Commented May 12, 2015 on 2014/2015 Winter analysis at Arctic Sea Ice
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May 7, 2012