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Neven - I am an ultimate Lurker but see you as such a friend after 5 plus years. You really seem to say what I think and have the balance, humility and intelligence to get so much right. Come back when all is good and appropriate in your world and say thank you to your family from me and many others for sharing you with us on what is and has been an incredible journey. A sad, mad, bad but enthralling race of consequences. Thank you for shining the light.
Toggle Commented Nov 21, 2016 on Sabbatical (I hope) at Arctic Sea Ice
I found the article a tad underwhelming, that's rare for NSIDC which does cover the science very well. It's audience is pretty broad nowadays so they seem to try and keep it simple, to some extent, but this really did deserve a tad more depth. I agree they should have addressed PIOMAS and the 80% reduction in volume between 1979 and 2012 and it does look as if 2012, at least, is not included in the graphic. It would be interesting if Walt Meier could add to the discussion here - I just Goggled him and he has done a couple of guest posts on WUWT but we won't hold that against him - I know many posters here have fought the good fight and ended up grey or bald in the process. This years weather and lack of conducive melt conditions have changed the dynamic a little - back to conservative. Only marginally and there's still 6 odd weeks to go but with so much less insolation north of 80N this year (I'm sure someone here could calculate it) to still be running fourth in melt really shouldn't turn back the dial too much. The fundamentals are the fundamentals but the climate modellers didn't predict 2007 or 2012 so the feedback mechanisms are still biased to melt - we just don't know conclusively what they are. Well - rotten Ice, lack of MYI etc., etc. but you get the drift. Speed of change seems to be the key though, in a process that should be geological, anthropological Climate Change has the arctic snorting some really weird white stuff and it ain't snow.
3.3m for me. That's up from two previous 2.8m estimates and just a reflection on the reality of weather. I've been watching the Artic Sea Ice Graphs and temperature just hasn't risen above average in the arctic for a couple of months - that's a dampener on what could have been a massive record year IMHO, with the same or similar net conditions as 2012. Still very low in context and we could get surprises especially if the Beaufort Gyre kicks in to action. North East Greenland is a mess with land fast ice slewing off and plenty of open waters to melt out any MYI that comes its way.
2.8 for me as well, the same as I had for May. Yes it's a slow start but the cliff approaches (if we haven't already fallen off the edge 0.825 today and going south) I still don't see too much upside. The cold should have made a huge difference but I don't think it has and there are polynyas popping up in some strange places. The new paradigm is everything's new and what was a negative feedback ain't necessarily so. Based (as always) on the wisdom of others and a little twist of lateral thought (not necessarily in a good way- but I try)
2.8m KM2 There's not much upside except statistical theory and a really cloudy melt season but certainly downside. If the ice is as rotten and thin as I fear as it could nudge 2m but next year will be the ice free pole and remnant ice only. Based mainly on the wisdom of others at this blog and a lot of associated reading and fossicking your contributors have led me towards.
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Aug 14, 2012