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Neven
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Another month (and a half) has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: The flatline that started in the second half of March, continued for a while longer... Continue reading
Posted May 15, 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
This might offer an explanation.
Toggle Commented Apr 15, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
November 2018: 12th December 2018: 8th January 2019: 17th February 2019: 11th Now compare this to the previous three winters. It's all relative.
Toggle Commented Apr 5, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
Reasonably confident, Jim. :-D But not 100%. It's too bad we don't get daily PIOMAS updates at this time of year.
Toggle Commented Apr 4, 2019 on PIOMAS April 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Apologies for not posting an update last month (busy). ----- Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: Look at the red line in the graph... Continue reading
Posted Apr 3, 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Why do you think?
Toggle Commented Mar 27, 2019 on Jakobshavn record retreat at Arctic Sea Ice
Yes, sorry about that. I'm so busy right now getting prepared for a new gardening season, and building a big duck house, that I'm too tired in the evening to do the PIOMAS update. As it's too late now anyway, I promise I'll do the next one on time.
Toggle Commented Mar 20, 2019 on PIOMAS February 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
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It was a long wait, what with the US government shutdown and a new year requiring spreadsheet updates, but here is the first PIOMAS update of 2019. ----- Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean... Continue reading
Posted Feb 10, 2019 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I live in one of the few parts in Austria where there hasn't been any significant snow. ;-) NOAA has updated its SAT data. I've posted the graphs over on the forum.
Toggle Commented Jan 29, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Sorry for not replying earlier. My impression so far - although I haven't monitored the situation very closely - is that this freezing season is going a lot better for the ice than recent ones (that were quite disastrous for the ice). What that means for the melting season is impossible to say. I usually take a comprehensive look once the freezing season is done. In the meantime, I hope the US government shutdown is over soon (also for the people suffering from it, of course), so we have the necessary PIOMAS and temperature data that are vital for having an idea of what's going on.
Toggle Commented Jan 25, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
It seems as if the only way I can log in at the moment is by selecting the Twitter option, and that doesn't seem to work reliably. Sorry to hear logging in is problematic again, Jim. And sorry I didn't get back to you earlier (I was gone and then picked up some flu strain from the Balkans). If things don't improve until the end of the month, I'll contact Typepad. As for no PIOMAS update, it's a shame, but the best time for it to happen. Let's hope things get resolved soon.
Toggle Commented Jan 12, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
It's because the Martians asked too many questions. ;)
Toggle Commented Dec 10, 2018 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi, Kevin! You're absolutely right, and I've changed the text accordingly. Thanks.
Toggle Commented Dec 7, 2018 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: November has been an excellent month for Arctic sea ice. With 4226 km3, it recorded the highest volume... Continue reading
Posted Dec 6, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I'm not that well-versed in science or models. A comprehensive discussion of strengths and weaknesses would take a lot of research. The consensus, more or less, among cryospheric scientists researching Arctic sea ice, is that the Arctic could go ice-free for all practical purposes (ie below 1 million km2 of sea ice area/extent) somewhere in the 2030s. I maintain it could happen before that, but it would take extraordinary conditions for it to happen the first time. The last couple of melting seasons were preceded by such extraordinary conditions, especially 2017, but conditions during summer were rather ordinary. Maybe the two are correlated, and so that's one of the things I'm keeping an eye on. Hence that final paragraph. But let's return to the thing that caused all these questions. I never replied to your Oct 22 comment, because I was busy preparing for travel. I have been a critic of simple line drawing projections of future Arctic Sea Ice and projections of a faster disappearance of ice at the September minimum, and premature claims concerning when the arctic will have ice free summers. My criticism has been born out by actual conditions and observations. I haven't done any of that in this blog post. Any time current ice conditions are low there are comments about this being the year of a new minimum. First of all, I was talking about the next maximum, not the minimum. And I didn't say it because of conditions at the time, because conditions have changed drastically, and I still hold the same opinion. Just go back and look at comments I made in 2011 that predicted that the arctic would not be ice free in the time frame indicated by Wipnius's line projections and others, including Wieslaw Maslowski. I have better things to do than pat you on the back for your WAGs. I was hoping you had information. If you do not have the information just say so. I have no duty or responsibility whatsoever to fulfill your hopes, especially if you take my statements out of context. If you feel like you want to discuss more than actual conditions, or something that is not the subject of the blog post you comment on, I can recommend the Arctic Sea Ice Forum.
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Now where were we? We're here. ;-)
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Test... Working again, great!
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2018 on PIOMAS November 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: October has seen a continuation of the trend that set in right after the September minimum (see last... Continue reading
Posted Nov 8, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Of course, but not from AGW. Can you present facts to corroborate your statement? Anybody can guess. What I was looking for was a measure of whether October ice conditions have any predictive significance with respect to the following year September minimum. Of course not. It is neither short-term nor long-term enough. Have you just started looking into Arctic sea ice loss? Your statement was a rather unscientific guess It wasn't a guess at all. I'm not guessing anything. I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens that we've seen the past couple of winters (relatively warm, low extent, low volume). I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't either. I simply don't know. Isn't that the most scientific thing one can say? how about some data about correlations based on prior year observations and whether October conditions have any correlation to the following September minimum. There is not enough data. Ask again in 20-30 years. Are you done trolling now?
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Please present facts, not guesses or "I wouldn't be surprised" statements. You want me to present facts about the future? Okay. We're all going to die.
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Latest JAXA SIE data is in, lowest on record as of yesterday.
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I was ready to write about this 10 days ago, but the data wasn't out yet. And then life got in the way, as it always does. On the bright side, Wipneus has just updated his PIOMAS graphs to mid-October. More on that below, but first I'll discuss the minimum.... Continue reading
Posted Oct 20, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Now I can log in to ASIF. Good. I forgot to look at this yesterday, so I'm glad it worked out by itself.
Gentlemen, this is what the Arctic Sea Ice Forum is for.
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We tend to focus on the end of the melting season, also known as the minimum, because that's when the ice covers the least amount of water. That's all fine and dandy, but of course, it's just an arbitrary measuring point. For instance, this year's minimum for the JAXA sea... Continue reading
Posted Oct 6, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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