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Neven
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It seems as if the only way I can log in at the moment is by selecting the Twitter option, and that doesn't seem to work reliably. Sorry to hear logging in is problematic again, Jim. And sorry I didn't get back to you earlier (I was gone and then picked up some flu strain from the Balkans). If things don't improve until the end of the month, I'll contact Typepad. As for no PIOMAS update, it's a shame, but the best time for it to happen. Let's hope things get resolved soon.
Toggle Commented Jan 12, 2019 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
It's because the Martians asked too many questions. ;)
Toggle Commented Dec 10, 2018 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hi, Kevin! You're absolutely right, and I've changed the text accordingly. Thanks.
Toggle Commented Dec 7, 2018 on PIOMAS December 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: November has been an excellent month for Arctic sea ice. With 4226 km3, it recorded the highest volume... Continue reading
Posted Dec 6, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I'm not that well-versed in science or models. A comprehensive discussion of strengths and weaknesses would take a lot of research. The consensus, more or less, among cryospheric scientists researching Arctic sea ice, is that the Arctic could go ice-free for all practical purposes (ie below 1 million km2 of sea ice area/extent) somewhere in the 2030s. I maintain it could happen before that, but it would take extraordinary conditions for it to happen the first time. The last couple of melting seasons were preceded by such extraordinary conditions, especially 2017, but conditions during summer were rather ordinary. Maybe the two are correlated, and so that's one of the things I'm keeping an eye on. Hence that final paragraph. But let's return to the thing that caused all these questions. I never replied to your Oct 22 comment, because I was busy preparing for travel. I have been a critic of simple line drawing projections of future Arctic Sea Ice and projections of a faster disappearance of ice at the September minimum, and premature claims concerning when the arctic will have ice free summers. My criticism has been born out by actual conditions and observations. I haven't done any of that in this blog post. Any time current ice conditions are low there are comments about this being the year of a new minimum. First of all, I was talking about the next maximum, not the minimum. And I didn't say it because of conditions at the time, because conditions have changed drastically, and I still hold the same opinion. Just go back and look at comments I made in 2011 that predicted that the arctic would not be ice free in the time frame indicated by Wipnius's line projections and others, including Wieslaw Maslowski. I have better things to do than pat you on the back for your WAGs. I was hoping you had information. If you do not have the information just say so. I have no duty or responsibility whatsoever to fulfill your hopes, especially if you take my statements out of context. If you feel like you want to discuss more than actual conditions, or something that is not the subject of the blog post you comment on, I can recommend the Arctic Sea Ice Forum.
Toggle Commented Nov 25, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Now where were we? We're here. ;-)
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Test... Working again, great!
Toggle Commented Nov 9, 2018 on PIOMAS November 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center: October has seen a continuation of the trend that set in right after the September minimum (see last... Continue reading
Posted Nov 8, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Of course, but not from AGW. Can you present facts to corroborate your statement? Anybody can guess. What I was looking for was a measure of whether October ice conditions have any predictive significance with respect to the following year September minimum. Of course not. It is neither short-term nor long-term enough. Have you just started looking into Arctic sea ice loss? Your statement was a rather unscientific guess It wasn't a guess at all. I'm not guessing anything. I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens that we've seen the past couple of winters (relatively warm, low extent, low volume). I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't either. I simply don't know. Isn't that the most scientific thing one can say? how about some data about correlations based on prior year observations and whether October conditions have any correlation to the following September minimum. There is not enough data. Ask again in 20-30 years. Are you done trolling now?
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Please present facts, not guesses or "I wouldn't be surprised" statements. You want me to present facts about the future? Okay. We're all going to die.
Toggle Commented Oct 22, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Latest JAXA SIE data is in, lowest on record as of yesterday.
Toggle Commented Oct 21, 2018 on PIOMAS October 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I was ready to write about this 10 days ago, but the data wasn't out yet. And then life got in the way, as it always does. On the bright side, Wipneus has just updated his PIOMAS graphs to mid-October. More on that below, but first I'll discuss the minimum.... Continue reading
Posted Oct 20, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Now I can log in to ASIF. Good. I forgot to look at this yesterday, so I'm glad it worked out by itself.
Gentlemen, this is what the Arctic Sea Ice Forum is for.
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We tend to focus on the end of the melting season, also known as the minimum, because that's when the ice covers the least amount of water. That's all fine and dandy, but of course, it's just an arbitrary measuring point. For instance, this year's minimum for the JAXA sea... Continue reading
Posted Oct 6, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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Another great video, this time from NASA Goddard: Continue reading
Posted Sep 27, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Hmm. My comment seems to have gone away for some reason. Thanks for mentioning that, Kevin. That way I can fish your comment out of the spam folder, as I did.
Toggle Commented Sep 27, 2018 on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Yet another destructive hurricane has hit the US, following a highly unusual path, smashing precipitation records all around. Dr Jennifer Francis breaks it down in this excellent video from The Real News Network (please, share): Continue reading
Posted Sep 21, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
congrats with making the cut on the 4.5 M km2 on the JAXA SIE! Yes, these things are important. ;-) Is there a chart on ASIF of the NSIDC Sept Avg. SIE? I don't think so, but you should be able to find it on the NSIDC site (here for instance).
Toggle Commented Sep 20, 2018 on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
I'm not saying this is it. 10K is not much. A drop of 11-12K tomorrow and you can add at least two more days to the minimum date. But looking at the current forecast, I don't think it will drop much more. If it goes up more than 25K beyond the preliminary minimum, I would call it.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2018 on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
Where does Russell say it isn't allowed. Try reading before shooting off questions? JAXA was offline for two days. Latest data shows it has dipped below 4.5 million km2 on the 17th! It has gone up again by 10K yesterday, so that could very well be it.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2018 on PIOMAS September 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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I've waited an extra week with this post because I was on a holiday and because the minimum is about to get hit. More on that below, but first a short discussion of the PIOMAS August data. ----- Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea... Continue reading
Posted Sep 17, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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A quite spectacular event took place during the past two weeks, and if it had continued for a while longer, I'm sure it would've been reported widely. Good to see that this event got reported, after all, on several news outlets.
Toggle Commented Aug 24, 2018 on Circumnavigating Greenland at Arctic Sea Ice
Forgot to mention: Professor Eli Rabett posted about this last week (check Zack Labe's Twitter animation). But over on the ASIF we have good eyes as well. We like carrots too.
Toggle Commented Aug 13, 2018 on Circumnavigating Greenland at Arctic Sea Ice
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A quite spectacular event took place during the past two weeks, and if it had continued for a while longer, I'm sure it would've been reported widely. It's something I've semi-jokingly alluded to when setting up this blog back in 2010, in my third blog post called Dire Straits, and... Continue reading
Posted Aug 13, 2018 at Arctic Sea Ice
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