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NJSnowFan
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Name calling just shows the true nature of a person. I don't prefer to play that childish game. We are all human beings and I would think civilized conservations can take place without the name calling. Call me what you want if you want to play that game, I call my self a realist and someone that can view both sides of situations not only in life but with climate and weather. Guilty until proven innocent seems to be case with many people when it comes to C02. If C02 was the only cause to Arctic ice decrease in the last 30 years then why has Antarctica experienced the most ever sea ice extent on record and Sea Ice AREA is making new daily records for this time of year. Everony that believes C02 is the ONLY cause of Arctic Ice melt over the past 30 years is wrong with my findings. Like I have said before there are many puzzle pieces to what has been going on. As many do know there are types of cycles with the sun, oceans and different patterns like the NAO, AAO , PNA and southern hemisphere AAO. If it OK with NEVEN I would like to post a bunch of info and links that would show connection between the AMO and how it has played a roll in the decline in the Arctic sea ice since it went positive and has been is a warm phase since then. If I am wrong about there being more then one puzzle piece to the Arctic sea ice decline then I will be happy to be called what ever you want. [Okay, the game ends here. You're complaining about name calling, but don't have a problem with implying that hardworking scientists are manipulating data. How's that for 'guilty until proven innocent'? Provoking/trolling is one thing, but to then whine when people react to that, is really something I can't stand. The oscillation between being nice and inserting denialist talking points ends here. You can send the links to my mail address, and I'll have a look to see if there's anything useful there. Links can be to untrustworthy sources as well, if you like. So long and thanks for all the fish; N.]
Neven, Yes it is your heat and you will be paying to heat that water, you might as well Reclaim some of it. Puzzle piece Arctic Sea Ice is the AMO. AMO has been in warm period since the Arctic sea ice took a turn down when the AMO went positive. During the 70's there was ice age scares and we had 1 low sunspot solar cycle and a very cold AMO. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation.svg
Neven, they look like good efficient windows. Just make sure they are insulated properly between the window casings and studs with a expandable insulating foam. My contractor that installed mine only stuffed in a little bit of fiber glass for insulation and I got real bad drafts on cold nights around the trim of the windows. I had to pull off the trim and use expandable foam to seal them properly. Hope you install something like this in your new house, payback in only a few years and they work great for saving energy when heating water. I made one in my home where the main 4" sewer drain is and water that is already preheated and flushed down the drain. Cold water runs through the coil picking up heat from flushed pre heated waste water from shower, sinks dishwasher and even toilet water. http://energy.gov/energysaver/articles/drain-water-heat-recovery
Whackadoodle says (how Chris Reynolds calls me in a childish way) when is the data going to start flowing again. Data stopped the day of the shut down but is being delayed with the start up. I am not posting on Nevens Blog to be calling anyone names or hope the same from other individuals and their views are their own. Like I said Before TSI is one part of the entire puzzle. Here is a link from University of Colorado at Boulder Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics that has interesting information how they reconstructed their long term TSI chart. ABST. from their site. Research and Applications Measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) are known to be linked to Earth climate and temperature. Proxies of the TSI based on sunspot observations, tree ring records, ice cores, and cosmogenic isotopes have given estimates of the solar influence on the Earth that extend back thousands of years, and correlate with major climatic events on the Earth. These estimates extrapolate many recent detailed observations to long-term observations of fewer (or even one) measurement. For example, accurate TSI measurements from the last 25 years are correlated with solar measurements of sunspots and faculae; these correlations can then be used to extrapolate the TSI to time periods prior to accurate space-borne measurements, since the solar records extend back 100 years for faculae and 400 years for sunspots. Over this extended time range, the extrapolated TSI record can be compared with longer term records, such as tree rings or ice cores, and correlation with these allows extension of the estimated TSI to more distant times, albeit with decreasing certainty. This extrapolation is important for understanding the relationship between TSI and the Earth’s climate; yet the extrapolation begins with the comparison of solar surface features to accurate TSI measurements, a record which is currently only 25 years long. http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/tsi-data/#summary_table Someone asked where woodfortrees got their data to make their TSI chart, it is listed here on the bottom of their chart here http://www.woodfortrees.org/data/pmod Neven, what type of windows are you putting in your new house. About 5 years ago I put triple pain windows in to conserve on energy. Not sure of the exact Gas compound in them but it amazing how gas filled windows reflect so much heat.
Neven, I would hope not but sometimes money/greed and power make people do foolish things.
Neven, Yes to your question. Almost daily there is a new articles. I do like to read both sides of alarmist and deniers articles.
Chris Reynolds, I do feel there are many puzzle pieces to why the Arctic sea ice has trended down over the last 30 years in thickness and area. TSI is just one puzzle piece,and never said it is the entire puzzle. Here is an older good article on PDO And AMO. Another puzzle pice I do feel is a factor to minimums and maximum when it comes to Arctic Sea Ice. http://m.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full I like to look at all aspects that effect our climate and what is effecting Arctic Sea Ice, Man made and natural.
Gov is back up and running but most data is not on Sea Ice, Snow cover as of yet. I am glad other sites like DMI exists because it will be not easy to change/tweek the data. Hope all comes back on line and BS password access is removed/not required.
Chris Reynolds Hope you are watching Arctic Temps, Don't forget my prediction of Average to just below temps in the Arctic for the winter. Has not happened in a while but this winter I do feel it will. Lag time is ending.. Above 80 N temps.. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php My feeling is Temps and sea ice has mostly due to that Sun of ours and that 1 to 2 annual % in my theory. Most up to date longer TSI data chart (Solar Flux) http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/pmod Hope all is well Chris
"Rob Dekker, In fact, we should count ourselves lucky if 2014 won't see a repeat of 2012. The ice is thin, summer snow cover is very low, and global temperatures are still rising." I would not say Summer snow cover is very low, it is lowest high highest since 2006 and above the mean now. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ Global temperatures flat for 17 years. How is that still rising. C02 has been still rising is true and models continue their out of the strike zone predictions. [The game appears to be this: NJSnowFan links to untrustworthy sources (like Joe Bastardi who is a joke), and then Neven removes it and asks not to link to untrustworthy sources. The end of the game is when Neven gets tired of the game. :-) N.]
Toggle Commented Oct 8, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Working link to the movie.. 1979-2010 http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/data_movie.html
Toggle Commented Oct 7, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
"philiponfire" Interesting Buoy deployment, drift and ice concentration map movie 1979-2010. Most of the buoys are placed on the ice April-August during the Melt season by IB ships. Click on IABP Buoy drift map to watch the movie. As I stated before I only have concerns from around March 1 around Oct 1. Movie is good, you can see Ice drift patterns and minimums of all the years. http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/data_movie.htmlaly
Toggle Commented Oct 7, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Doomcomessoon, Early snow cover Might also have something to do with the many fires that produced lots of smoke over Siberia. Cyclones stayed over Arctic into late summer then the snow started to fall with lots of smoke in the air. Smoke particles help with snow growth. My post on Data 2006-2013 ice and snow cover for first day of fall. All dates 9/23 https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/386511391856668672/photo/1 People who put observers that love weather and climate like me in a denier category are just wrong. I do believe man has some influences on climate like the IPCC repot showed. I feel it is lower then the 50% they say and more like 15 to 20% with ALL greenhouse gasses from man. I do feel man is responsible for more like 50% for the Arctic Sea Ice since the early 80's. Arctic Sea Ice Break down, Green house gasses(10%), the sun (20%) Icebreaking ships and ship activity including oil and gas exploration(20%) Many here on this blog do know from observations that ICE grows ice much faster then if new ice started to form in an open body of water. When ice breaking ships cruse along breaking up first and multi year ice that is covered with snow and freshwater ice the ships roll the ice over exposing it to sunlight and salt water melting the fresh water ice much faster. Almost every Buoy in the Arctic is visited by an ice breaking ship in the spring or summer during melt season to relocate because of moving ice. If only a study could be done where a large are could be deemed off limits to icebreaking ships for a 3 year period and the truth will come out. Back before the late 70's not many Ice breaking ships were crushing the ice during the melt season.
Toggle Commented Oct 6, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven said to keep on topic but I just want to respond with a few answers. Data tampering chart, yeah it is from Steve Goddard but shows how past data was changed. [Yes, data tampering and Steve Goddard make a perfect couple. 95% of what he says is stupid, purposefully misleading or lied. I don't have time any longer to put in the effort to see if by any chance what he says or writes, is part of that precious 5%. Goddard is totally untrustworthy as a source, so don't link to his site; N] The Sun, I did come across this TSI (solar Flux) reconstructed chart from LISIRD: LASP Interactive Solar Irradiance Data Center. It clearly shows a stronger TSI from 1900 to around to 2009 when the chart ends. http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/tsi/historical_tsi.html One more chart November average Sunspots and Global March average lows, 1875 to 2012. Not sure why they used November sunspot data and not march but March average temps I guess were used for the Start of Spring. http://thetempestspark.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/oxford-average-november-sunspot-number-and-march-minimum-temperature-1865-2012.gif I also asked a few climate scientist is the effects of icebreaking ships on Arctic sea ice and if factored into any climate models. Two responses one, Chris Beal ‏@NJSnowFan 2 Oct @ClimateOfGavin How much of 60% is that from Giant Ice Breaking ships like this? http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/shipdetails.aspx?mmsi=273316240 … yearly summer trips to N pole Response Gavin Schmidt ‏@ClimateOfGavin 2 Oct @NJSnowFan None. Trends are in the million Sq miles/decade - much too large for such a small factor to be important Second, Chris Beal ‏@NJSnowFan 3 Oct @flimsin My Q is are the destructive nature of ice breaking ships put into Arctic ice climate models. Thanks Response, Tamsin Edwards ‏@flimsin 3 Oct @NJSnowFan I've never heard of them being put in models or thought to be important. You could search IPCC report as online (though long). My response https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/385442929684541440/photo/1 I also Asked the question to the panel of climate scientist on Ask a climate scientist with Google hang out and they only took a few softball comments and not mine on TSI. Just some quick info on me. I am a environmentally conches person. I hate wasting things and inefficient things. I do compost not only for the environment but for the benefits of that organic soil that is your reward in the end. When I see something that is not right or feel I do not agree I will speak my mind. [If you hate wasting things and inefficiency, then stop trolling. N.]
Toggle Commented Oct 6, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
" Jai Mitchell Models show " Weather and climate models are in fantasy world. If you cherry pick and do not add all factors like they have, models will always bust like they have been doing. Real data from the past is best way to figure out the future and lots of data has been tampered with to make the past look colder for agenda reasons is my feeling. Model watchers become brainwashed and let down every time. Models throw darts and 97% miss outcome and target and that is no lie past one week. The past always repeats...
Toggle Commented Oct 5, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Jack Taylor I posted before from Mobil, Trick Question on Graph, my 5.7 mil km was according to your graph. My Real World Est for 2014 minimum is 4.1 mil Km Area.. Good night
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Kevin McKinney "All the ice that made it is now multi year ice now." "Er, no." Ok 12 days from now, All the Ice that did not melt this year I do feel is and should be named Multiyear Ice ON the date of the Minimum is declared( we already know that, Area, Sept 09 Extent & Area Sept 12). If more melts that is Ice from last Maximum then subtract that. Everyone on this blog has access to all the satellite maps on what is Ice from last maximum and first year ice that is growing today. "Lord Soth" "2013 was an outlier, and pretty close to a black swan. I don't expect to see an arctic summer like 2013 for a very long time." That is your option but I do feel otherwise.. "Even then, it will be a mixture of multi-year and first year ice." Yes and Ice grows Ice faster then open water grows melting waves. New First Year Arctic ice has grown 100+km since Sept 12 in a week.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Jack Taylor that is off topic and I will reply just one time to it. I do not want to get the boot from Neven. I have to respect his rules on his blog. My feelings. I would say blue line again but not by much more. All the ice that made it is now multi year ice now. That multi year ice will become more thicker by the end of maximum season. I predicted Arctic sea ice for 2013 melt season in late winter of 2013 to be above 2007 minimum based on What sun spot cycle 24 was doing. I did not give exact ## for minimum. I will predict minimum for 2014 melt season now based what sun spot cycle 24 now. Based on Sun spot cycle 24's lack of sunspots and CME's now and if trend continues. The winter in the Arctic will be average to below with temps. My prediction for 2014 minimum Area will will end at or near 5.7 mil km.
Toggle Commented Sep 18, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Andy Lee Robinson I had two typos, 2013 and Extent was on 09/09/2013 not the 12th I posted. Thanks
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Jdallen-wa Does not look like you will get that 50-60km melt. Loop of the Arctic shows it locked up with no systems entering or exiting. Cold is locked up and expanding. go to Northern Canada and Arctic Ocean IR loop http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html model http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?h500_vort+/-168//
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Melt season ending September 17, 2013 http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/09/4292/
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Not working try 4 pieces cut and paste. Delete all++ and delete my second attempt . Thanks NJSF ++ftp://sidads.colorado.edu ++/DATASETS/NOAA ++/G02135/north/daily ++/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
One more time ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Neven, The question I asked was for you about Antarctica Extent and yes off topic. Snow balled some in a way I did not want to. I did learn everything about Extents and Area when it comes to sea ice today though from reading one of your blog post and some other info on some sites. I do feel their are consequences if the Arctic becomes Ice free in time. There are so many things(puzzle prices) that can make sea ice melt faster or even preserve(summer of 2013)/grow it faster. Some are Natural and some are man made I feel. I have not seen this data link on the 20013 Arctic Extent minimum posted on this blog so here it is. I came across it while looking into Antarctica extent data. Also shows sept 12 being extent low. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
Jdallen_wa The all time extent record is right for Antarctica. Neven had good post on sea ice area verse extent here. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2010/08/area-vs-extent.html
Toggle Commented Sep 17, 2013 on Pinpointing the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice