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If one has respect for science, it is only natural to want to defend it against people who abuse it so horribly, and to make sure others know the real story. I see this post as 100% consistent with respect for science. Thanks, Neven.
Toggle Commented Sep 19, 2011 on And now, a word for our sponsors at Arctic Sea Ice
I think the journalist's POV is detectable in a couple of aspects of the BBC article. I think the journalist shows a clear desire to combat any sense of urgency readers may have, by failing to mention that the "tipping point" issue has to do with the ability of the ice to recover *if temperatures decrease again, which they won't any time soon*, and by ending with these quotes: "I don't say that our current worries are not justified, but I think that there are factors which will work to delay the action in relation to some of the models that have been in the media. "I think the effect of temperature and global warming may cause a change in the general wind systems which maybe will delay the effects of the rapidly rising temperatures a little bit." And by the way, what is meant by that last bit?
Neven, thanks. It occurs to me that if there's significantly more thin/weak/otherwise vulnerable ice out there now than there was years ago when that RC discussion happened, the answer could be (slightly) different now.
I realize this may be silly, but what the hell: Does anyone know: is there any noticeable impact of tides/moon phase on ice breakup and/or melting? As in, if the ocean is sloshing about with relatively more vigor, does the ice flex, break, tumble, melt more? Before even getting an answer, I'm going to be logically irresponsible and predict big extent decreases during the next spring tide, i.e. around the new moon at the beginning of August :)
I did a little noodling in excel with the IJIS data, and looked at what the minimum extent would be if 2011 evolved the same way as each of the other years in the data set from this point on (except 2002, incomplete data). Of the 8 years...four led to a minimum above 2007's, and four led to a minimum below 2007's. Hah! The average of the eight was 4,264,785...which is 10,254 km2 more than 2007's 4,254,531. Double hah! This is a good race. The largest value I got was 5,017,813 (following 2006's daily changes from here through September), and the smallest was 3,650,782 (following 2008's changes). I am riveted. I wish the various data sources updated hourly.
I'll take a stab. Under 7 million on 22 July. Method: eyeballed the last couple of weeks, then made a WAG.
Toggle Commented Jul 12, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 11: the heat is on at Arctic Sea Ice
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Jul 12, 2011