Hi Chuck, I've been disappointed how rarely the arctic depths are discussed here. I'm sure the undersea currents of the arctic ocean is no less important than any other factor in determining the state of the ice. Perhaps it is the sheer difficulty of gathering data on the under sea temperatures that causes it to be under stated. I feel like modelling the arctic is like the fable of the blind men touching and describing an elephant. I suspect that Wadhams is qualitatively right, even though it seems implausible that the Arctic sea ice plunges to such a great extent this year. I'm quite sure that most models would fail to predict the precise year of melt out the year before the melt out actually happens. The existing data sets would be barely relevant to the terra incognita of that fateful year.

I totally agree with the earlier commenter that Arctic oil developments could not possibly be economically viable. Now that OPEC has declined to manipulate the oil prices, the future of many deposits are in doubt. I wonder if a prolonged period of low oil prices would ruin the tar sands developments. Frankly, I think fossil fuel companies should be spending their money on pivoting away from using their products as fuel and focus on materials research. Creating more carbon based materials could help them remain in business in the years ahead. I wonder if it is possible to create a replacement for concrete and cement from coal.

Ah, I did not notice that it was a one year old article. My bad. I suppose I'm glad I'm not depending on forecasting the Arctic for a living. There are just too many variables and too little resources to create a perfect model. '17 is as good a guess as any. I suppose random variations in melting conditions could throw off any precise prediction. I'm really curious if the Arctic would be passable to cargo traffic in another 20 years. Or would it be too rough when the ice is gone?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/09/us-navy-arctic-sea-ice-2016-melt In case you missed this.

Errm, what could cause that? Satellite re-calibration, calibration error, website error, major compaction event?

@Couloir Sounds familiar, but I think I saw it in a youtube video. I'm not sure how to find it though.

hmmm new article. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/13/science/timing-a-rise-in-sea-level.html?src=rechp

I'm pretty curious about these polar cyclones. It somehow feels like the poles should be a natural location to expect cyclone-like weather patterns. It just seems strange that this is still a relatively new development in the arctic.