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" Anyone know of a good long term graph of Absolute Humidity (Dew Point) in the Arctic? I suspect that would do more to explain what is going on here than anything else. " Aside the reanalysis or including the NCEP / NCAR reanalysis ? ^^ I only know the graphs of the reanalysis which are probably quite good if we ignore values in the 40s an 50s (great overestimation) and we weight down a bit values in 60s and 70s All in all, 2016 was probably one of the wettest and rainiest summer in Arctic with 2012, 2010 and 2006. This is being corroborate by record rainfalls all the summer; the most extraordinary achievement being probably Grise Fiord with record three day rainfall for at least canadian Arctic, if not the whole Arctic : But yes it explain a lot, water vapor is a powerfull greebnhouse gas, and rainfalls can bring a lot of energy.
P.S. Reading again I know doubt I was crystal clear, sorry my bad. I was perhaps a bit too emphatic about Cretaceous and Paleogene. It's true Cretaceous is really not directly comparable, but for Paleogene it's not so true yes. But still we have the max of the Miocene, its 400 or 500 ppm of CO2 and its winters frost free even in the far north and the probable lack of winter sea ice, its palm trees and crocodiles up to 40 or 50° N and so on. Miovene perhaps was not as equable as the Eocene but still the climate was probably way more closer to an equable one than to current setting of climate. And Pliocene probably never went above 400 ppm. And for the words of rear admiral Titley, I can serch youtube but he really speak about ice free arctic in winter in the 2nd half of this century. But we are now totaly outside of the main thred...
I must say I agree with Sam. Paloegene and Cretaceous are too far in times. Miocene CO2 was around 400 - 500 ppm and this epoch saw equable climate. Faint Sun paradox, vastly different continent settlement, and so on, are against any direct comparaison with so remote times. Models would be far more usfull if we were seeing a cooling. Ice Ages have the same logic than our current climate. But for a warming with the certainty to flip to a new state, models are misleadings. Some good ideas from Kerry Emanuel about hurricane mixing and from Abbott about cliuds retroactions, but still we don't know how an equable climate really works... We will probably discover it in the second half of this century, if we are still there. For winter blue arctic, I must search about it. But at leat the US Navy, by the voice of admiral Titley, said one time that ice free conditions are a distinct possibility in the second half of this century (not sure of the exact wordings tough, but he was pretty clear about this).
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May 16, 2016