This is Oslo's Typepad Profile.
Join Typepad and start following Oslo's activity
Oslo
Oslo
Recent Activity
There has been a few thoughts on this blog on how the denialist industry will spin this record low - and now we know for sure. The spin is that this is normal - it has happend before - as opposed to "it will recover soon".
New dogma apperently.
Fun stuff really. Appart from hiding of the fact that summer insolation was greater under optimum than now. What are they trying to tell (sell) - that summer insolation is the same now, as of 6000 years ago.
Really, how stupid can it get.
Peeking through the clouds 5
Commenter dabize has sent me the latest 'declouded' version of the False-Colour Composite images Environment Canada makes of the LANCE-MODIS satellite images. They give us an excellent view of week to week changes that are blocked by cloudy conditions in the Arctic. Changes in the ice pack reall...
Christensen,
it was warmer in summertime on NH during holocene optimum due to increased summer insolation (related to earths orbit) - not neseccerily warmer all year.
In geological terms, before present normally means before 1950, if not otherwise stated.
According to Hansen (2006 and 2012), global mean temperature passed holocene optimum about year 2000. Holocene optimum was probably only a few tens of a degree warmer than mid past century.
Peeking through the clouds 5
Commenter dabize has sent me the latest 'declouded' version of the False-Colour Composite images Environment Canada makes of the LANCE-MODIS satellite images. They give us an excellent view of week to week changes that are blocked by cloudy conditions in the Arctic. Changes in the ice pack reall...
idunno:
Alert is probably more affected by low albedo than NP - more likely with higher temperature in Alert than NP due to lower albedo in the neighborhood is my guess. NP will probably not have higher summer temperature until it has lower albedo i close vicinity.
Greenland melting breaks record 4 weeks early
There already was a suspicion that this year would become a record year for Greenland ice melt, after all the real-time information we received from Dr. Jason Box with regards to the reflectivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (see Dark side of Greenland), the extremely high temperatures in much of...
The GAC2012, now official ;-)
Arctic summer storm open thread 1
As the storm is still there, big, but no longer strong, and comment threads fill up quickly, I figured it's time for an open thread. And yes, it's a bit of an update as well, with interesting comments and graphs. But first the updated animation. Now that the swathe of ice floes in the East Siber...
Rutgers snow cover anomaly for NH in july is down again - a new record low - who could have guessed:
July snow cover NH
Arctic storm part 3: detachment
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Arctic summer storm is still there. After approximately 48 hours (which is long for an Arctic summer storm) it has weakened some compared to yesterday or the day before, but as far as I can see sea level pressure in the centre of the storm is still around 970 mb, w...
Steve Bloom:
James Hansen argues that the temperature gradient between low and middle/high latitudes will increase as global warming continues.
This dosn't address yout question directly, but according to Hansen these type of events might become more frequent in the comming years.
YouTube (J Hansen): The Runaway Greenhouse effect
Arctic storm part 1: in progress
This is what I meant when I said 'flash melting' yesterday: Now it's there on the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map, the next day, poof, it's gone. Mind you, not all of it is gone, the sensor is thrown off a bit due to that crazy cyclone downstairs, but it ain't exactly good for the ice if ...
Sorry, my comment was addressed to Peter Ellis:
There is presumably a lag time of ~2-3 years for ice conditions to adapt to the climatically-specified level.
PIOMAS August 2011 (new volume record)
The PIOMAS graphs at the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington have been updated. I'd like to start by showing Larry Hamilton's excellent graph that gives the best perspective: It's already below last year's very low low. In other words, a new...
Bob, according to Jason Box (2009), the lag time for the Greenland ice sheet (vs. NH) is 10 years, and he argues that the Greenland warming would continue to warm 1.08-1.68C after the warming NH warming flattens out.
- Using the empirical relationships between Greenland and the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature data, we calculate that if Greenland was to become in phase with the hemispheric pattern, as it did after 1923, an additional 1.08–1.68C warming would occur.
If we take into account what Hansen says, the slow climate feedback (vegetation and ice) might take more than a hundred years before the climatic response is fullfiled.
So the Arctic sea ice is probably doomed even if GHGs level out, it remains to be seen if the Greenland ice sheet can be saved.
PIOMAS August 2011 (new volume record)
The PIOMAS graphs at the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington have been updated. I'd like to start by showing Larry Hamilton's excellent graph that gives the best perspective: It's already below last year's very low low. In other words, a new...
The couple with canoes headed for the north pole has turned around due to the ice conditions (to little open water) and slow progress.
Nares Bridge is falling down
It looks like I'm back just in time to witness the breaking up of the ice plug in Kane Basin. This just in from the Aqua satellite: It's a bit vague, but it looks as if the lower part of the plug is crumbling. If it is breaking up, how long will it take for ice transport to get going through N...
Day 5 in the Arctic by canoe (saturday), 83 degrees north heading for the pole - little open water still according to ut.no.
Funny, they was visited by a housefly at 83 degress north:
- Rune had another highlights when he received a visit today. A housefly flew by and sat down on his sledge before it flew off again.
Bering in mind
As promised in my previous post on the situation in the Bering Strait and Sea, here's an updated comparison with previous years around this date (images from the Uni Bremen archive): 2011 seems to be ahead of 2004 and 2005, if only slightly (mainly because there's less ice in the Gulf of Anady...
>This leads to more bottom melting according to Don.
My understanding is that the ice albedo feedback is much stronger than the relatively weak forcing from CO2 each year - so a small change in CO2 each year leads to a small change in temperature in the arctic which reduces the ice cover (stronger from bottom than on surface), and in response trigger a much bigger temperature change and ice cover than CO2 alone would produce. This of course would implicate that the loss of sea ice seasonally in the Arctic would probably lead to a much stronger response than our understanding so far (I'm arguing that the ice albedo feedback is underestimated, also confirmed by a study published earlier this year).
SIE 2011 update 7: Beaufort Gyre
During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...
Werther wrote:
- Is there a scientific basis to the assumption that the melt is driven from down under?
Donald Perovich argues that reduced sea ice in the arctic leads to more solar input which leads to more melting - a classic ice albedo feedback.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5T5UsPSBO4
This leads to more bottom melting according to Don.
SIE 2011 update 7: Beaufort Gyre
During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...
Cecilie Skog and Rune Gjeldnes is planning a trip to the North pole by canoe.
Not much media coverage on this story, but here is a google translation.
Lost in translation (from the title):
poleventyr = polar adventure
The trip is also mentioned here (also google translate).
I'll be happy to give updates when more information is available (there was an other trip planned by kajak this year but this trip has been cancelled).
Barrow Break-up 1
This is a quick and dirty blog post to be used as a reference later on. Yesterday I remarked in the comment section of the last SIE update that I saw some melt puddles starting to form on the ice that can be seen on the webcam in Barrow, Alaska (see map to the right where that is). Each year a...
A bit OT but the Antarctic ice extent seems a bit odd:
http://www.iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
Very early start of melt season it seems?
Where is the Petermann Baby?
As we all know the ice tongue that broke off of Petermann Glacier some time ago, has broken up in two pieces. The big mothership is still stuck against Joe Island, but where did the baby ice island run off to? Mind you, this baby is still about 80 km2 and several tens of meters high. I didn't ke...
Whats "wrong" with the Arctic Roos data?
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Arctic Recovery Crock of the Week
Peter Sinclair, also known as greenman3610, has done a nice overview (h/t ClimateProgress): Help Support Climate Crocks, go to http://www.climatecrocks.com
According to a letter to Nature in April 2010:
The evidence from the past two decades, based on ERA-Interim,
reveals that recent reductions in sea ice cover and thickness have been
great enough to enhance Arctic warming strongly during most of the
year.
http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/files/arctique-ann%C3%A9es-2000-tures.pdf
Sea ice extent update 25: the time is now
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2006-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
At last some real polar amplification!
Well, I don't know but there is a paper i Nature (if I recall correctly) claiming that Arctic amplification is taking place and it is due to reduction of sea ice primarily. As I understand this is happening much earlier than previously anticipated.
I can always dig up the reference if it is of interest.
Race to Fram Strait
Artful Dodger, aka Lodger, sent me some great images that show the Transpolar Drift Stream kicking into action and transporting a huge collection of ice floes towards Fram Strait, something we have discussed earlier in the blog post Breaking away from the pack, following Jon Torrance's speculati...
Northern Passage has escaped to open sea!
There is a high probabillity that they will be the first to go through northeast and northwest passage in a single season!
http://www.ousland.no/2010/08/escape-to-the-open-sea/
Sea ice extent update 25: the time is now
I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2006-2009. The IJIS graph is favoured by almost everyo...
You are quite right about your understanding of "lykke"!
Just waiting for a new update from Thorleif Thorleifsson and Børge Ousland which I believe it is imminent..
Is the Northern Sea Route opening up?
As I wrote in my recent blog post Northern Passage 2010 the main obstacle that is keeping the Northern Sea Route closed is the narrow band of ice off the north-east coast of Taymyr Peninsula. It looks like a big low pressure area has started shifting that ice northwards: Correct me if I'm w...
Just to fix the "lykken staar den kjekke bi" problem (from a native Norwegian):
"lykken" means fortune
"staar" (or står - modern) means stand
"den" means it
"kjekke" means handsome (in this case bold)
"bi" means by
The proverb is from latin ("Fortes fortuna adiuvat") and means "Fortune favours the bold".
Is the Northern Sea Route opening up?
As I wrote in my recent blog post Northern Passage 2010 the main obstacle that is keeping the Northern Sea Route closed is the narrow band of ice off the north-east coast of Taymyr Peninsula. It looks like a big low pressure area has started shifting that ice northwards: Correct me if I'm w...
Oslo is now following The Typepad Team
Aug 17, 2010
Subscribe to Oslo’s Recent Activity