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Otto Lehikoinen
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there's the ~70% area limit commonly seen near area/extent edge, that looks to be a potential limit for this to happen, once the Central Pack gets to this limit the clearance could happen any week, of course not saying it couldn't happen with larger concentrations.
Toggle Commented Aug 5, 2014 on Poof, it's gone at Arctic Sea Ice
David Goldstein asks: "Does anyone know - is it possible, as a 'civilian' to join with scientists for, say, a week this summer while they monitor the melt? I would like to do this for my personal enjoyment" It's my understanding that occasionally the scientists studying glaciers employ experienced ice climbers, more preferably if they're also strong to carry some equipment, to help them with their experiments. Some of the more dangerous tourism activities come with a liability agreement that start with a statement 'In case of death or injury...' Once upon a time it was indeed possible to get as a tourist on a Russian ice breaker on a study mission with all the amenities of a freighter ship, such as common showers and common meals, with a crew that doesn't speak english, but I guess with the current political situation that's not possible. In any case if you are able to get on some western ice breaker studying ice you'd be extected to work or at least stay out of the way. I guess the easiest way to get to a research vessel as a tourist nowadays is to fund a research group and demand to be on the field crew. I don't know if any of these are enjoyable to you but I think this is approximately the current situation. Of course you'd also be expected to go through an extensive survival course. Of course I maybe wrong.
Toggle Commented May 4, 2014 on Getting ready at Arctic Sea Ice
It appears typead has changed its sign-in procedure, got a warning of some security hole. This part of the question would require some clarification: " there is a plausible time frame that it could remain frozen at the North Pole." No, there isn't a plausible long time frame (well maybe some months during the winter.), the object would drift with the Beaufort Gyre and possibly reappear in or near the NP after a longer timeframe, if it would withstand the forces involved in the pack-ice formation, be buoyant in sea water, in fact, be slightly more dense than fresh water ice but less dense than first year ice, resisting the corrosion by sea water and possible constant sunlight in summer. some ultra-resistant white stainless steel box with aerogel filling (the object embedded in this) might do this for several cycles of the Beaufort Gyre (though this is just the first guess). More likely way for an object to survive for long in the Arctic would be, it to get stuck in the land fast ice, on the north coast of Canada archipelago, maybe in front of some glacier, there it would dislodge with the glacier calving event and reappear in the north pole after some period (nowadays half a cycle on Beaufort Gyre takes (I guess) some 2 years. Most of the caveats still apply, if the object (and it's box) are less dense than ice, the winds or waves would grab it and wash it to shore if it's denser than ice it'd end up washing to the bottom of the sea. If it'd be blacker but less dense it'd like still melt it's way through the ice (this is in fact an interesting option). I'd say it's possible to use this literary device until all the land fast ice has vanished (add a couple years), this is probably some ten years away still. But no, the object in question would not be on top of the ice but (likely) refrozen with the new ice. It still cannot be a large object (4 meters or so) since someone could have noticed it in spy satellite images or when it was embedded in land fast ice
Toggle Commented Apr 7, 2014 on Research for a novel at Arctic Sea Ice
Thanks, I guess PIOMAS is becoming mainstream.
Any guesses when and if the transpolar drift forms this winter? Now it looks like what ever build up of ice happens in Kara Sea coast, after a while it moves to the outflow near Greenland. The circulation seems to be slower now than week ago, but still somewhat oddly placed.
Toggle Commented Jan 29, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Steve Bloom answered:"winter ice will continue to re-form for a while, and it will keep summer temperatures tamped down. Eventually, if and when the ice goes in winter too," there could develop a massive temperature gradient between Arctic coasts and inland producing a narrow range for southern animals to occupy. Plants on the other hand would have to manage in nearly permanent darkness during winters. There would probably be very frequent freezing fog events also bit off coast, so occupants of such an area would likely like to know how to skate ;-).
Toggle Commented Jan 21, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
Ac A : a) the 650 000y would be for the Antarctic ice cores, there's no good estimates that I know of the pliocene times (Chinese stalagmites?), the 10-15 millions would be the growth phase of the East Antarctic glacier, with very different oceanic circulation. I think there was some sediment cores drilled recently (off antarctic coast). b) nothing to add to Reynolds, wishing I was that good with massive amounts of data. c) this would probably be because the orbital forcing was different during Eemian (LIG, last interglacial?), NH having shorter but hotter summers then. (I'm pretty certain winter ice still persisted well) as usual no references from me (not working on these), sorry.
Toggle Commented Jan 21, 2013 on 2013 Open thread #1 at Arctic Sea Ice
"More rain doesn't automatically mean more farmland." Any estimates about how long does this take on various unirrigable soils? Dumping clean waste on these areas now might speed up the process somewhat, but I still guess that would be an intergenerational project. Nitrogen-fixing plants would probably be good but rising the amount of phosphorus is more difficult. Possibly if dead zones on the seas could be dredged for phosphorus this would be instant but with dredging in those you get plenty other not so nice stuff too.
Toggle Commented Jan 9, 2013 on The bunny explains at Arctic Sea Ice
And it appears I've not been looking: Gagnon & Gough (2005)
Toggle Commented Dec 25, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
on hudson bay, doing a chart depicting the regressed anomaly increase on (monthly)/probably weekly basis over the years (so 52 regressions and their interdependence(what's the word?) might make a pretty graph of how the melt is progressing. there is a clear change (eyeballing) in the anomaly pattern after 1998 autumn (before it the autumns were quite normal) but doing a linear reg one on weekly intervals might still give some means to guess the 1st winter without full ice cover. I don't now where to find the data on this: and anyway I'd probably mess up somewhere in the process. This sort of thing was done to some other climatic variable (regional CO2?) on monthly basis a year or two back, but if I've not seen it done to sea ice.
Toggle Commented Dec 25, 2012 on The real AR5 bombshell at Arctic Sea Ice
Yeah, sounds about right james cobban. It's about an additional Mississippi flowing out of the glaciers, like I saw stated somewhere. Those atmospheric rates of moisture transport in tropics to Amazon basin are quite astonishing. According to the glacier outflow would stand in the top ten currently, I guess.
Toggle Commented Dec 13, 2012 on 2012 Greenland records at Arctic Sea Ice
It looks like Antarctic CT SIA positve anomaly is today a yearling. Congrats!
Toggle Commented Nov 26, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
There's the 8th year anniversary coming up in two weeks (dec-10th). Any plans? Sure it's not something to celebrate much, but anyway. (subject: CT SIA continous negative anomaly)
Toggle Commented Nov 26, 2012 on Looking for winter weirdness 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
the floe obuoy#6 is on looks kind of blue:
Toggle Commented Jul 13, 2012 on Fringe fries part 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Good work, Neven, and good work, all scientists who done this. And what's happening on the other end of the Atlantic, one might ask. A couple of abstracts and possible research material wrt AMOC (well AMO too), Agulhas leakage seems to be the magic word on this: The current systems on Drake Passage and Falkland/Malvinas are more important in the palaeoclimate studies it seems:
Toggle Commented Jun 27, 2012 on Ocean heat flux at Arctic Sea Ice
Those smokes from the forest fires travel quite a long way so it's not necessarily so unconnected. Here's an example: so it's dependent of the wind direction. And the finer particles travel further, since I've also smelled those too on couple of occasions (western coast)
Toggle Commented Jun 22, 2012 on Siberia burns at Arctic Sea Ice
Re:currents in Arctic, this might be of interest, i can't read them well, but probably here are people who can:
Toggle Commented Jun 15, 2012 on Fringe fries at Arctic Sea Ice
Masters Wunderground-page for (synoptic?) weather reports and local forecasts around Greenland: It seems the Summit Station record is currently out of service/circulation.
My guess would be slush on top of the harder more solid ice. But that is a large area for that.
Toggle Commented May 31, 2012 on Kind of blue at Arctic Sea Ice
from Tenney Naumer' notes: the paper:
Toggle Commented May 18, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 2: no daily data at Arctic Sea Ice
just to inform the second buoy has been deployed, if someone here didn't know it already:
Toggle Commented Apr 24, 2012 on ASI 2012 update 1: a new beginning at Arctic Sea Ice
I'll take a WAG on march 22nd and 13.000001 Megasquare-km, and then start to argue of the inaccuracy of the measurements :-P.
Toggle Commented Feb 1, 2012 on 2012 Maximum Area Pool at Arctic Sea Ice
"I was astounded that Arctic methane emissions seem to be a winter phenomena" some reasons would be: 1)The lack of sun (photosynthesis stops) 2)the ice cover (lack of atmospheric mixing of surface waters) it's not unusual in ice covered lakes for fish to die of lack of oxygen in winter, drilling a hole in the ice may even attract some of the fish near it in some lakes.
They've seen a polar bear at some +74N. And the going has been tough intermittently, pack ice is too rough on locations and headwinds make it difficult to get long daily trips. diary (french) at:
Toggle Commented Jul 28, 2011 on Across the North Pole at Arctic Sea Ice
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Jul 28, 2011