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Alan Parker
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Hardly an 'attack' on DaveMart, just a reasonable observation. "No criticism of Tesla is allowed on any grounds at all. Keep the faith!" That's a provocative post rather than an explanation as to why you think Lux are correct. DaveMart might like to collate all of his posts over the last 6 or 7 years and see how they have changed. Of course that will take a *long* time ;-)
DaveMart, you seem to be slowly but surely morphing into an anti-EV troll.
DaveMart: "Your 1kw of electricty at the wall is going to get you 3-4 miles at the wheel of your Leaf and your total energy consumption is going to be in the ball park of 1kw/mile" How can we take you seriously when you mix up your power and energy units? I'm sure it was just a mistake, that made you twice. You're not an AutoblogGreen blogger are you? I drive like a demon and use about 0.3kWh per mile in my Leaf. Since you need a link to any post that is supposed to 'prove' things, here's a link, sorry it's only Wikipedia: That page estimates 0.39 kW·h/mi *well to wheels* - way below your 1kWh. Also your position seems to be summed up as: "My opinion on the future of FCEV doesn't require any faith" "Your opinion on the future of BEV is only based on faith" Honestly it sounds ridiculous!
Larzen - how many FCEV have gone around the Nurburgring? A fuel cell cannot provide rapid changes to power output so require a battery with around 1kwh of capacity but quite high power output to even produce 'ok' performance.
Hey guys, here comes DaveMart!
Plugin fuel cell vehicles would make *much* more sense IMO.
If even gor has changed his mind you know it's all over ;-) Honda have gone quiet about their plans for next year. Hyundai are bullish but it's lease only still, although I think I read they predict going from leasing about 1000 this year to selling 10,000 next year, not sure how that's going to happen. Toyota, I think I read, have now stated it's lease only for next year and they also admit it won't be any cheaper to run than a gasoline car.
I don't see that 4kw could even be used as a range extender, it certainly can't be the prime-mover for anything.
These are very depressing numbers. Of course they can't predict what cars will be on the market in the future and at what price, nor can they predict the price of oil. I suppose the biggest reason for low numbers actually in-use is that cars do last a long time and a majority of the cars being bought today are conventional.
I still can't see it, especially of Tesla delivers on the Model E. If they do you will have a car that is: 1) Cheaper to buy 2) Cheaper to run 3) MUCH faster and more refined 4) Similar range The *only* advantage the FCEV will have is refuelling time on longer journeys and the fact is MOST people do not make long journeys MOST of the time. Why Toyota can't seem to understand this I do not know.
Lad: I also have a LEAF and really looking forward to the next generation with a bigger battery. I think it will be released next year or possibly 2016.
This kind of complexity bodes well for the future of plug-in vehicles. I just wish the rate of improvement and cost reduction would hurry up.
48v and aluminum wiring is almost certainly coming to production vehicles within the next few years. It will be nice to eventually ditch the ancient lead-acid 12v battery,
We seem to have gone from arguing whether or not the ICE will still be dominant in 20 years to whether or not I jumped too early by getting a LEAF. Well maybe I did, but someone has to. Anyway I'm leasing it until the beginning of 2015. The monthly cost including electricity is really very attractive, if it wasn't I would not have done it. After the lease is up I really want a BMW i3. Originally I wasn't a fan of leasing but since this technology is moving so fast I'm thinking that leasing might be the thing to do for the next 10 years or so. We shall see. Anyway this is too many comments for gcc, so if you want the last word go ahead.
Kit P I drive a 2012 Nissan LEAF. My other half has a Prius and there are about 1% of journeys in the last six months that couldn't be done in the LEAF. I'm never buying another pure ICE again, I would consider something like the BMW i3 with Rex, it depends on how fast the batteries develop.. BEV has massive scope for improvement whereas ICE is pushing against the law of diminishing returns. That's why I'm willing to bet real money with anyone that still thinks the ICE will be the dominant force in the next few decades. So you don't like the silence of a BEV? I guess you've driven one for a few months then and really decided you don't like it? If so then fair enough, if not then you're really in no position to compare the two technologies. Since I've driven an ICE for decades prior to the beginning of this year I'm qualified to comment and I'm 100% sure you'll live to be proven wrong. But hey who knows maybe a new source of mega cheap oil will appear soon and the ICE will stop needing gears and sounding like a tractor.
I hope Kit P visits here in 20 years (if gcc is still running) to see his prediction about BEVs being relegated to museums being proven false. Every trend is now pointing towards the fact that the ICE will not be the dominant form of propulsion for light duty vehicles in 20 years. For new light duty vehicles it probably won't even be true for new sales in 15 years. The ICE is horrible for propulsion, the only 'good' thing about an ICE car is the energy density and practicality of the fuel, everything else is just working around all the problems. Here we have facts.
Perceptions are changing. Better driving experience combined with incredibly low running costs (typically 1/5th that of gas) are starting to filter through. You can feel the potential building, these are exciting times.
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May 23, 2013