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and this 'rebound' surely seals the fate of any climate deal going forward with any kind of impetus. Unless in 2016 we have another new low- C02 will continue to rise 2.5-3ppm till the early 20os- and likely well beyond.
Toggle Commented Sep 15, 2013 on IPCC crisis meeting at Arctic Sea Ice
Peter Mizla is now following Neven
Oct 3, 2012
We are perhaps already a few tenths of a degree above the Holocene maximum, and the system seems to be in the early stages of rapid change. It is widely expected Arctic sea-ice will be totally lost in summer with a few years to a decade or so, perhaps at less than 1C or warming. Very few scientists think Greenland would be stable in an Arctic with little or no summer sea-ice, and opinion is split as to whether it is past its tipping point already. It is hard to argue that anything above the Holocene maximum (of about 0.5 degrees above the pre-industrial temperature) can preserve a safe climate, and that we have already gone too far. The notion that 1.5C is a safe target is out the window, and even 1 degree looks like an unacceptably high risk.
well said Superman we will not avoid 2C above the PI level- we will very likely not avoid 3C- we will probably go to 3.5-4C perhaps a bit over. The climate is shot now- at just 0.8C above the PI level the polar ice cap will be gone. double that to 1.6C- wanna guess what will happen- it will not be linear- it will be exponential. the fact is this country is in very deep trouble-its only a matter of time before the whole structure caves in. As for the rest of this civilization? Worse. This countries 'isolated' geographic location will save it from some of the hell in the future globally- but not stop the chaos from within.
Superman I agree that the predictions of the IEA are probably too optimistic- but they are still dire- however the public still remains in a state of inertia induced denial.
correction that's 5% a year starting now.
Hansen Mann & others have basically reiterated what the IEA has said- after 2017 the infrastructure will be in place for 450ppm C02 and a rise of 2 degrees above the PI level. We still have time- but we must begin to reduce our emissions now at 55 a year, if we wait till 2020- that's 10% a year- we are just about out of time.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/09/364895/iea-global-warming-delaying-action-is-a-false-economy/ International Energy Agency: “On planned policies, rising fossil energy use will lead to irreversible and potentially catastrophic climate change.” “… we are on an even more dangerous track to an increase of 6°C [11°F]…. Delaying action is a false economy: for every $1 of investment in cleaner technology that is avoided in the power sector before 2020, an additional $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.” The International Energy Agency has issued yet another clarion call for urgent action on climate. Their 2011 World Energy Outlook [WEO] release should end once and for all any notion that delay is the rational course for the nation and the world. The UK Guardian‘s headline captures the urgency: World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns If fossil fuel infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will ‘lose for ever’ the chance to avoid dangerous climate change
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2012/may/name,27216,en.html 24 May 2012 Global carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record high of 31.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2011, according to preliminary estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This represents an increase of 1.0 Gt on 2010, or 3.2%. Coal accounted for 45% of total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2011, followed by oil (35%) and natural gas (20%). The 450 Scenario of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011, which sets out an energy pathway consistent with a 50% chance of limiting the increase in the average global temperature to 2°C, requires CO2 emissions to peak at 32.6 Gt no later than 2017, i.e. just 1.0 Gt above 2011 levels. The 450 Scenario sees a decoupling of CO2 emissions from global GDP, but much still needs to be done to reach that goal as the rate of growth in CO2 emissions in 2011 exceeded that of global GDP. “The new data provide further evidence that the door to a 2°C trajectory is about to close,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.
We have seen the amount of melting up north with just 0.8 degrees C above the PI level- and the other associated weather globally. We have another 0.8 degrees C warming in the pipeline- so we have baked in 1.6 degrees C above the PI level baked in. We have 5 years to peak out emissions, to keep us under 2 degrees C- so says the IEA. After 2016 we will have in place the infrastructure for 2 degrees and 450ppm C02.
Bob Wallace The infrastructure to convert from fossil fuels to renewable energy is in its infancy. The world has become lazy and used to the burning of fossilized plants and animals. They are easily attainable (though new reserves of oil are becoming harder to locate and extract)Coal is very easy to extract- its supplies are huge. Natural gas is plentiful, though again the extraction methods are controversial. We have until 2017 to peak our global emissions to 'prevent' a 2 degree C rise in global temperatures-after that date the so called energy 'infrastructure' will be in place for 450ppm and 2 degrees C above the PI level. . After 2017 we must begin to reduce our emissions by over 5% a year- if we wait till after 2020 its close to 10%. Can we begin that kind of draconian reduction and still have a strong economy? If China says its emissions peak in 2030- ok- but at what level? If we wait till 2030 to begin a fair reduction in emissions, at a robust 4% a year- we will still likely pass 500ppm C02- and those nasty and unforeseen positive feedback's....? reaching 550-600ppm by 2070 seems very likely. Renewable energy will indeed become a larger force as time proceeds- but fossil fuels by 2050 will still account for at least 70% of our energy so says the IEA. Runaway global warming is hopefully a Science fiction movie. I feel we are smart enough to barely escape such a nasty scenario. Nonetheless we will still see a 3.5-4 degree C rise above the PI level- which will indeed remake our society in profound ways.
Bob Wallace- question is- We can do almost everything with renewable energy that we now do with fossil fuels. And we can do it cheaper. If so then why are we not doing it?
We have a few more years to begin reaching peak emissions and then begin reducing them at 5% a year.If we wait till 2020- we will need to reduce 10% a year- by 2030- 20% a year- impossible to do. By 2016 we will have in place the 'infrastructure' for '450ppm C02' which as Jim Hansen says is a 'prescription for disaster' time is up. We are now at 395ppm C02- and rising over 2ppm a year- reaching 450 by 2030 or so- that's when the crap really begins to hit the fan- its going to be a hell of a ride- and for capitalism in its current guise- its end.
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We will likely pass 400ppm in 2014- the dreadful number of 450ppm as early as 2030. A mantra that has driven global negotiations on carbon dioxide emissions for years has been that policy-makers must prevent warming of more than two degrees Celsius to prevent apocalyptic climate outcomes. And, two degrees has been a point of no return, a limit directly or indirectly agreed to by negotiators at international climate talks. James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, whose data since the 1980s has been central to setting that benchmark, said today that two degrees is too much. New, extensive study of the paleoclimate record going back 50 million years by Hansen and others now shows that the two-degree target for global temperature rise “is a prescription for disaster,” Hansen said here at a news conference during the American Geophysical Union meeting. Hansen came to that conclusion after reviewing average and extreme perturbations in the paleoclimate record that have been more thoroughly documented in the past few years. The record shows that 50 million years ago, Earth was free of ice, and sea level was 70 meters higher on average than it is today. Both phenomena resulted from natural variations in mean temperatures due to slight changes in the sun’s output and Earth’s orbit over geological time scales. Rising temperatures today, over far shorter time scales in which neither the sun nor the orbit are factors, are caused primarily by higher levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels before the industrial revolution were about 280 parts per million on average. They have been rising ever since, and today are about 397 ppm. A level of 450 ppm has generally been associated with an average global temperature rise of two degrees C. However, the latest analysis shows that a level of 450 ppm is enough to melt a significant portion of the world’s ice, because feedback mechanisms kick in; melting ice hastens the melting of even more ice, for example, and thawing permafrost emits methane that accelerates warming, prompting permafrost to thaw even more. If the number reaches 560 ppm, a doubling of preindustrial values, sea level globally could rise 25 meters, according to Eelco Rohling, professor of ocean and climate change at University of Southampton in the U.K., who presented data at the AGU meeting with Hansen. Many large cities worldwide lie at that elevation or lower. The two scientists agreed that if nations continue to emit CO2 at current rates, the world could reach 560 ppm by 2100. The paleoclimate record also shows that 560 ppm would be enough to melt all the ice in the Arctic, and later the Antarctic. Rohling said that once the Antarctic melts, sea levels would rise by 60 to 70 meters. “If governments keep going the way they are going,” Hansen added, “the planet will reach an ice-free state.” Hansen concluded with a message to negotiators at the current climate talks in Durban, South Africa. If the world begins reducing CO2 emissions by 6 percent a year starting in 2012, Hansen said, atmospheric levels can return to the “safe” level of 350 ppm that he and others have long called for. “If the world waits until 2020 to begin,” he noted, “it will need to reduce CO2 by 15 percent a year to reach 350 ppm. We are out of time.” http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/12/06/two-degree-global-warming-limit-is-called-a-prescription-for-disaster/
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We would have to begin in 2015 reducing our emission s by 7% a year to bring Co2 levels back to 350ppm by 2100. If we wait till 2020- which seems virtually impossible politically- this rises to 15%- its too late now to prevent irreversible climate change that is likely to result in apocalyptic outcomes. We will have in place by around 2017 the 'energy infrastructure' in place to see a rise of C02 to 450ppm- and 2 degrees C above the PI level-which is a very critical tipping point that will result in many nasty feedback's kicking in. We have already risen 0.8 degrees C above to PI level- we have another 0.5 degrees C in the pipeline- Dr. James Hansen at NASA GISS has basically said C02 at 450ppm and 2 degrees above the PI level is a 'Prescription for Disaster'. We are now at 395ppm- the highest level in 4-15 million years- C02 even at this level- sustained over time will still see 2-3 degrees C rise- and sea levels rising 25-50 feet higher then today. C02 during the entire Holocene up to the start of the PI era was at 280ppm. The climate is shot- in time this will effect the economy- social and economic chaos by 2030 is likely.
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CO2 in the pre industrial era from 8000BC to 1750- 280ppm today 394ppm- by 2032- 450ppm James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, whose data since the 1980s has been central to setting that benchmark, said today that two degrees is too much. New, extensive study of the paleoclimate record going back 50 million years by Hansen and others now shows that the two-degree target for global temperature rise “is a prescription for disaster,” Hansen said here at a news conference during the American Geophysical Union meeting. Hansen came to that conclusion after reviewing average and extreme perturbations in the paleoclimate record that have been more thoroughly documented in the past few years. The record shows that 50 million years ago, Earth was free of ice, and sea level was 70 meters higher on average than it is today. Both phenomena resulted from natural variations in mean temperatures due to slight changes in the sun’s output and Earth’s orbit over geological time scales. Rising temperatures today, over far shorter time scales in which neither the sun nor the orbit are factors, are caused primarily by higher levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels before the industrial revolution were about 280 parts per million on average. They have been rising ever since, and today are about 397 ppm. A level of 450 ppm has generally been associated with an average global temperature rise of two degrees C. However, the latest analysis shows that a level of 450 ppm is enough to melt a significant portion of the world’s ice, because feedback mechanisms kick in; melting ice hastens the melting of even more ice, for example, and thawing permafrost emits methane that accelerates warming, prompting permafrost to thaw even more. If the number reaches 560 ppm, a doubling of preindustrial values, sea level globally could rise 25 meters, according to Eelco Rohling, professor of ocean and climate change at University of Southampton in the U.K., who presented data at the AGU meeting with Hansen. Many large cities worldwide lie at that elevation or lower. The two scientists agreed that if nations continue to emit CO2 at current rates, the world could reach 560 ppm by 2100. The paleoclimate record also shows that 560 ppm would be enough to melt all the ice in the Arctic, and later the Antarctic. Rohling said that once the Antarctic melts, sea levels would rise by 60 to 70 meters. “If governments keep going the way they are going,” Hansen added, “the planet will reach an ice-free state.”
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The climate now with C02 at 391ppm is already shot- the increasingly bizarre weather we are seeing now is from C02 at 360ppm in the early 1990s- its called 'temperature inertia' we will not see the effects of today's level till 2030 or after- but by then C02 will have reached 450ppm- as Dr, Hansen has said- a 'Prescription for disaster' C02 will double from the PI era to 560ppm by 2050- and we are on a track will the decisions in Durban for at least a 3.5 degree rise in global temps. Meaning catastrophic climate change. those who choose to ignore this growing peril - do so at their own risk- it will be the most important issue the globe will face and have to deal with- the Physics do not lie.
Toggle Commented Dec 14, 2011 on Assessing the Climate Talks at Economist's View
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Dec 14, 2011