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PhilippeC
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[Who are these people?] Google can help you out here... Who is the International Transport Forum (ITF)? [www.internationaltransportforum.org] [Who is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).] www.oecd.org [A UN group?] No [Pedestrian Safety will be the focus of the United Nations Road Safety Week from 6-13 May 2013.] [Do these people want to require Walkers licenses?] No [Do they want to establish walker speed limits?] No [Do they want to require walkers to wear helmets?] No What is the point of this post?
Good to see people read our reports. Responses to comments and (some) misconceptions: @Anne: "I wonder if they accounted for the healthcare cost savings? Especially converting urban delivery vans from diesel to electric has a huge health benefit. From the article this is not clear." Yes insofar as the monetised air pollution cost derived from the (official) Boiteux Report in France assigns a cost due to air pollution that is dominated by health effects. @Davemart: "Not only no health costs, but no depreciation, and I did not spot maintenance in it on a fast reading." Health costs are included, all costs are in Net Present Value so depreciation included - BEV depreciation less than ICE because wear-and-tear is likely less and BEV residual value remains high due to Battery leasing vs. battery owning. Maintenance cost differential in favour of BEV is included. @Davemart: "they have ignored the very substantial taxes that an ICE pays in fuel" Taxes are included when calculating consumer costs (and yes, ICE taxes are substantial), not when calculating societal costs are per standard economic appraisal methodology. @Herm: "I thought the Renault Fluenze and Zoe were at cost parity with similar diesels when you lease the battery.. is this not so" No, this is not so -- check the cost tables in the papaer that include pre-subsidy pricing for equivalent models on the French market. @ Darius: "Sounds tricky "taxes excluded". Do VAT, profit tax and other related taxes excluded as well?" As noted above, taxes are included in the consumer cost calculations, not in the societal cost calculations as per standard economic appraisal methodology -- hey, I didn't make up the rules ;-) @ HarveyD: "This study, with SO many USEFUL exceptions, managed to favor ICE machines and Big Oil?" Assumptions are clearly explained in the paper as are their rationale - the analysis holds for these but readers are free to play around with other assumptions. The study doesn't favour big oil, it just finds that if you aren't driving a lot, the current generation of EVs in France don't really represent good value for money and subsidising their purchase doesn't really change that. It also shows that EVs make sense for high mileage users within range constraints ... that's a pretty positive message isn't it? @A D : "It cost more then that because they forgot many costs. They forgot to take account of the electric charger cost. " No, charger costs are included (home box charger + installation) as is the cost of the dedicated cable (rather expensive...). Public charger costs are discussed.
@Andy Smith: those random figures and facts are the official numbers submitted by the UK to the IEA and published in "Electricity Information 2010" (http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=567). Coal is significant source of electricity generation in the UK trading places with gas according to prevailing prices for both resources. The unweighted share of coal amongst UK utilities is 33% coal (gas currently represents 43%, unweighted), the weighted share is more and the fuel mix profile amongst utilities varies widely (for example, coal represents 51% of London Energy electricity mix)
This is perhaps an overly simplified summarisation of the Ricardo study. Three important points to keep in mind: You cannot generalise about the CO2 impact of EVs since upstream electricity-related emissions vary from country to country and according to time of day and season. The Ricardo study assumes a CO2 intensity of 500 g CO2/kWh which is equal to average UK electricity CO2 intensity. If the marginal electricity used to charge the EV is generated by a coal plant (and baseload in the UK is often generated by coal) then the CO2 intensity is nearly double at 920 gCO2/kWh erasing the “benefit” of the EV. If the vehicle is charged by a gas plant (marginal capacity during the day or when gas prices are more favourable than coal) then the CO2 intensity is lower at around 380 g CO2/kWh. These ranges are not uncommon for most EU countries (except perhaps France) and are on the low end of the CO2 intensity of some regions contemplating massive EV roll-outs (IE northern China). Ricardo’s projected EV lifecycle CO2 savings are relatively small and incomensurate with the cost premium of the EV. The study assumes the lifecycle CO2 emissions of both EVs and plug-in hybrids to be only 20% less than a gasoline car (19t lifetime emissions for the EV and PHEV compared to 24t for the ICE). The cost premium of an EV and PHEV over an ICE is more than 20% so you end up paying quite a bit per ton of avoided CO2. Let us assume that decreases in production-related CO2 emissions will occur at the same rate for EVs and ICEs. 70% of the ICE lifecycle emissions come from vehicle operation – this is the area where we are seeing significant decreases in emissions via turbo-charging, light-weighting, stop-start micro hybridisation etc. Contrast this to the 52% of CO2 emissions that come from electricity production. I don’t believe that we will be seeing a 50% improvement in the carbon intensity of electricity production by 2030 in the EU and certainly not elsewhere. Even if we did, the impact of that would be less than the impact of halving fuel consumption from the ICE given the relative weights of driving and electricity production related emissions for the two types of vehicles. The CO2 comparison between EVs and ICEs is likely not to favour the EV over the mid-term (2030). IMO The possibility for significant improvements in ICE fuel economy are greater than the possibilities for significant decarbonisation of electricity and advances in battery technology. As long as the EV cost premium remains, then time will likely favour new advanced ICEs under most oil price scenarios. Don't get me wrong - if I could afford one, I would love to have an EV.... but let's be honest about both the up and downsides of these vehicles....
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Jun 8, 2011