A BIG THANKYOU from me too, Neven. And a "hear hear" to echo the various comments above. We all need to take time out at various points in order to strengthen our resilience on various/all fronts. And not necessarily CC-related ones. So for that reason I am pleased to read this is what you are planning, for yourself and your whanau! Just maybe you can put the up the occasional post on the Forum Walking the Walk thread to update us on progress with the garden etc?! :-) Clare

Looks like we are in for a very interesting 'ride' this year. I keep thinking of Maslowski's supposed '2016 +/-3 years' quote even tho' I realize this was not quite the case. Neven, you are going to be kept v busy here. Must be time for me to lob another token into your tip jar. Thank you & to all the commentators here. Clare in NZ

Goodness me, links to this Blog are popping up all over the place! Congratulations Neven & all contributors for the high quality of posts & discussions here & over at the Forum.

Thanks Vaughn, I also posted this over on the Forum (& I missed the typo too!): http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,622.msg55047.html#msg55047

This 2015 melt season looks like shaping up to be a very interesting one! I'll look forward to all the discussion here, thanks in anticipation to all you regular posters! And Neven too of course! So it's time to secure my front row seat by putting something in the Tip Jar. Back to lurking..... Clare

Sorry to be off topic here Neven but.......I just wanted to help spread the word about this climate related fund-raising project, last 4 days & they are 3/4 the way there! CLIMATE DOCUMENTARY THIN ICE RAISING MONEY FOR US BROADCAST https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/thinicefilm/editing-thin-ice-climate-science-documentary-for-b See the details over at the Forum, on this link: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,179.msg39956.html#msg39956

OT & without apology! Greetings to other lurkers: if like me you are not up to making any useful contribution to all the wonderful info & discussion here, then we all still can via the Support button up on top right of this page! Thanks to Neven & all you contributers here & over at the Forum. Clare in NZ

Thank you Paul, I enjoyed reading this, well as in 'enjoy' while you are holding your breath at what feels terrifying...! I liked how it was set not too far in the future, most projections are so far out that they dont seem real, 50-100 years hence is impossible to imagine. I really liked the compostional devices you used here, the factual & the 'news clips' etc. Did feel there was a little slowing down of the pace then after the first 'factual' part but that was probably a good thing, let me breathe for a moment! There were a number of reeeally good stories in amongst those news clips, they had great potential if you wanted to expand on some of them. As others commented there are lots of different ways we each might be imagining things will play out, & over what time frame in reality in the future, but congratulations, this was a great read! No wonder you won the award with it.

Best wishes with your presentation later today Neven, I am delighted you have been invited to participate. Here we are just poised right at the top of the roller coaster ride of the 2014 melt season.... Which was a timely reminder to myself - and I hope others out in ASIB-land too - to put something in the Tip Jar. My contributions to it by necessity are v modest but at least if we lurkers did from time to time it would add up & help!

Thanks for this, compliments of the Season Neven, to you & yours, & all your helpers here. Maybe Santa could just relocate, seems plenty of seaice down in this part of the globe: http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/kiwis-ship-trapped-in-ice-5786446 And then of course he has the whole Antarctic continent for his base. Clare in summer in NZ

Thanks Werther, I was fearing Chris's comment above might encourage everyone to head down here! Someone posted this elsewhere, Hot-Topic I think? Of course most of thisalready has/is happening here! Well not the (land based) volcanoes bit lately. "A good game plan might be to drop NZ’s profile – make it less desirable to others. Perhaps by. Not wining Americas Cup. Changing the name of the country. Tainting milk products so people think our land is polluted. Spreading the idea that our rivers are sewers. Having some oil spills. Arranging some significant earthquakes. Having some volcanoes erupt. Welcoming fracking. Dropping our incomes. Encouraging political corruption… Who would want to come here then?"

Really terrific news about being in the NEWS, Neven, like OLN says a reminder to all re. the donate button top right, and to paraphrase Doug L "Neven, well deserved! Hopefully your followers will soon break 200, then add some $$$$ soon." Must be time for another front row "movie' ticket for the show, looks like it's shaping up to be a long late melt season this time.

4.6 Mkm2 Up from 3.4 the last 2 rounds. Not based on any scientific logic, I've increased it just because of the cooler season & the limitations of the means of measurement here, understanding full well the ice is in poor shape. I wish it was because the ice was MUCH thicker & sturdier, was 'recovering', but I'd be dreaming!

SORRY I'm always OT but just in case you need an escape for a moment you might enjoy seeing what Gareth Renowden does in his 'spare time'. And Neven is a gardener-in-waiting after all! http://www.podgardening.co.nz/gareth-renownden.html

Sorry OT Are you following this Greenpeace demo of 6 women climbing the Shard (of ice) in London? http://iceclimb.savethearctic.org/

Yes, as Lynn says, the video is a great help! And I'm not sure you need the addition of funeral music to emphasise an already grim situation.

Further to the drilling of holes by the Discovery crew mentioned by NeilT: I don't remember where I read this (some sea ice textbook I think) & I made notes about it because I am interested in 'holes' of all sorts as patterns for my still-in-the-designing-stage arctic inspired artworks - that the vertical brine channels in 1st year ice acted as weak points in the ice, so a row of them could act as a 'zip' to 'unzip' the ice. But I'm no expert & maybe this is not of sufficient scale to be significant here? Back to my corner to lurk! Clare

3.4 I'm sticking with the same figure as for the last poll. Not based on any great scientific analysis of my own. Just looking at the state of things this year ie. slow start so I wondered should I up this but then reading a bit more & A-Team's image of the state of the ice says 'no'. That image looks v like the xrays of my lungs when I was very crook a couple of years ago, seems like there could almost be an analogy here? Tho' the black areas on my xrays were the good parts, so I guess that doesn't work. But whatever, the ice looks 'sick' to me. On the Fufufunk scale I'm a 1, with 8-9 years of 'obsession' about things ice-y, first Antarctic, but since 2010 its been almost all Arctic related. Clare

Excellent researching & summing up, Neven. I should have been commissioning you to write my Climate Literacy course assignment for me! Whayaya know about NZ's glaciers responding to climate changes..... darn, I see you're going to be away. C

Thank you, Neven for this thorough overview summary. I knew these must take you a lot of time to write in 'pre-digesting' all the info for us, am not surprised it has been 3-4 hours a time. I'm just hoping now there are sufficient funds trickling in through the donations tip jar to assuage Mrs Neven, even a little bit, over all the time you are spending on us here! Also belated congratulations on the now +500 blog posts, and its good to see other posters contributing this blog, as well as all the quality comments. Thank you to all. This all makes for fascinating reading for me, much way over my head, but I am learning A LOT lurking here. And I have just 'bitten the bullet' & started the Coursea Climate Literacy course, may no longer just glaze over at mention of units of W/m2 etc......and its only week 2! & Thank you A-team for this beautiful image which I've saved as inspiration for my arctic inspired artwork.

3.4 M km^2 +/- I dont have any v logical scientific data to base this on: I was initially hopeful of a 'dead cat bounce' (goodness what a descriptive turn of phrase that is!), well would really prefer a 'live cat' one better, taking things back to pre1970 levels. But when I think about the positive & negative forces potentially operating this season my instinct is that any +ve 'bounce' will get swamped leaving us a bit below last years minimum. The error margins are obviously large; more cloudy days? strong storms again this year? etc etc Clare

OT sorry Neven! Finally the 'tip jar' is back. So I've booked my seat at least for the first 'session', hope to again later on during the summer. Thanks for all your work, Neven, and that of the commentators joining you here. Clare

Apologies if this has already been posted: Weather and Climate Summit - Day 3, Dr. Jennifer Francis Published on Jan 25, 2013 Session 6: Dr. Jennifer Francis - Rutgers University Topic: Wacky Weather and Disappearing Arctic Sea Ice: Are They Connected? http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xugAC7XGosM Even I can follow this, she explains things so clearly. Clare

Tena koe Lodger, :-) I can see I should have searched the blog a bit harder re. the noctilucent clouds first 'cos I had actually read those posts too (it is hard to keep up with you all & especially all your brain power!). What actually focussed my attention to this is that the Astronomy group seems to be a 'bastion of (v nice) climate change deniers' & here the Pres. actually mentioned the CC term before showing the clip! At the meeting the month before he had asked me if I'd seen how the recent solar flares had caused the extreme Greenland ice sheet melt..... :-( I try to be on my best behaviour there but sometimes it is quite hard! Now another clip/trailer for a movie which I imagine many of you will have already seen = Chasing Ice. I'm reeeeally looking forward to seeing this on a BIG screen, not just glimpses as photos on my screen & in his book. It's showing in the next town this coming weekend as part of the NZ International Film Festival! http://www.chasingice.com/ Clare

(Sorry to introduce that "M" word again, Neven) They showed the video from here at our local Astronomical Soc. meeting the other week, its about Noctilucent Clouds and their possible connection to increased levels of methane. I hadn't heard about this before, maybe you all already had?! They get to that part about 3mins in. http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/07aug_meteorsmoke/ Clare