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Nate Silver has done a lot of coverage and analysis of the cellphone effect on US elections in his Five-Thirty-Eight blog. In the 2008 Presidential cycle he found that landline-only polls tended to have a 2.8 point skew against Obama. The percentage of adults with wireless phone service only is 23% down here. While it might not apply perfectly to Canada, it's worth a look: John
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Kien "on my reading of Krugman, I understand him to be saying that QE is not credible because of political constraints. While I have a lot of sympathy for that view, a monetarist could counter by saying that political constraints also rule out fiscal intervention." I think Krugman is equally sanguine on the political contraints for fiscal intervention. That was in part why he argued for a much larger fiscal stimulus in 2009 - he figured it was a one-shot deal, and political considerations would likely close off the door to future fiscal intervention unless the first one was big enough to really make a difference. But Krugman is more of a proponant of monitary intervention than he is being given credit for (or perhaps that is Nick's point). If you look at his work on Japan and the ZLB, he is advocating that the central bank set an inflation target much higher than it is currently, and that they be committed to do whatever easing is needed to get there. I think his concern is that a political environment where leading politicians are arguing that money SHOULD be a store of value and advocate a return to the gold standard is not one where QE is likely to be allowed to be successful. John
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Mar 21, 2011