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12.98 million square km on March 15 is my guess.
Commented Feb 3, 2012 on 2012 Maximum Area Pool at Arctic Sea Ice
2012 Maximum Area Pool
EDIT Neven: There's a poll in the right hand bar running until February 8th for predicting the Cryosphere Today maximum sea ice area number. See details below. Don't be afraid to share your prediction in the comments. :-) ----- Post by guest author crandles: It doesn't look like the area maxi...
Here in south Georgia (USA) it has been a very mild winter, but I don't consider a mild winter to be indicative of a trend. The last 2 winters were quite cold. But our summers were so extreme the last 2 years were warmer than normal anyway.
When the revisions for 1981-2010 averages were released vs the 1971-200 averages, our winter was about 0.3 degrees colder, and the rest of the seasons were warmer, and the annual average temp rose about 0.4 degrees for my location. That's in degrees Fahrenheit.
The point is that a mild spell in the winter doesn't show global warming is real (which it is). It's the trend of the seasons and climates for everywhere around the world that shows global warming is a reality. And the deterioration of arctic sea ice is just one part of that.
Commented Jan 28, 2012 on New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011 at Arctic Sea Ice
New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
Via ClimateProgress from the WWF Climate Blog, this piece by Nick Sundt: Arctic Temperatures Continue Rapid Rise as 2011 Breaks Record Set in 2010 NASA yesterday (19 January 2012) released data showing that last year temperatures in the Arctic rose beyond the record established in 2010 -- settin...
The BBC had an article about the freshwater bulge in the Arctic Ocean yesterday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16657122
Commented Jan 24, 2012 on New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011 at Arctic Sea Ice
New temperature record for the Arctic in 2011
Via ClimateProgress from the WWF Climate Blog, this piece by Nick Sundt: Arctic Temperatures Continue Rapid Rise as 2011 Breaks Record Set in 2010 NASA yesterday (19 January 2012) released data showing that last year temperatures in the Arctic rose beyond the record established in 2010 -- settin...
Artful Dodger, I am curious as to why methane's increase in the atmosphere slowed down between 1995 and 2005, and since then has been increasing again. Does anyone know what caused that pause?
Commented Dec 19, 2011 on Arctic methane: Russian researchers report at Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic methane: Russian researchers report
I vowed not to talk about this because it literally makes me sick to my stomach, but it's too important to deny. We all know about the vast deposits of methane clathrates on the Siberian continental shelf. They are kept in place by pressure and low temperatures. However, the temperatures (SAT as...
Here is the BBC news story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15835017
Commented Nov 24, 2011 on Storm impacts at Arctic Sea Ice
Storm impacts
The 'Arctic Hurricane' that slammed into Alaska and Siberia a couple of days ago caused wide- spread damage and presumably cost one person his life. Luckily the storm didn't top the 1974 record storm, but still. As the Associated Press reported: Emergency responders called the storm an epic eve...
Here is a really cool video of a 'brinicle' forming, bringing extreme cold from above to the sea floor.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMhBuSBemRk
Commented Nov 24, 2011 on Storm impacts at Arctic Sea Ice
Storm impacts
The 'Arctic Hurricane' that slammed into Alaska and Siberia a couple of days ago caused wide- spread damage and presumably cost one person his life. Luckily the storm didn't top the 1974 record storm, but still. As the Associated Press reported: Emergency responders called the storm an epic eve...
How often are strong deep storms in the Arctic ocean in winter? I would think that the strange configuration of a slightly milder Arctic Ocean surrounded by very cold land masses would keep temperature contrasts down. So how deep do storms in the deep arctic get in winter?
Commented Nov 23, 2011 on Storm impacts at Arctic Sea Ice
Storm impacts
The 'Arctic Hurricane' that slammed into Alaska and Siberia a couple of days ago caused wide- spread damage and presumably cost one person his life. Luckily the storm didn't top the 1974 record storm, but still. As the Associated Press reported: Emergency responders called the storm an epic eve...
How much ice is in the Ellesmere ice sheets on land? With the ice shelves breaking up, the glaciers will flow faster into the ocean. Will that raise the oceans by milimeters? Or inches?
We live on a barrier island, every inch counts!
Commented Sep 29, 2011 on You do it to your shelf at Arctic Sea Ice
You do it to your shelf
Hat-tip to Twemoran and the Idiot Tracker ( I had to read it in two places within 15 minutes of each other to get the significance of this): Canadian Ice Shelves Breaking up at High Speed As Patrick Lockerby noted back in April: The oldest non-glacial ice in the northern hemisphere is a small r...
This week's Economist has an interesting article about arctic sea ice. http://www.economist.com/node/21530079
Commented Sep 26, 2011 on NASA on Arctic sea ice at Arctic Sea Ice
NASA on Arctic sea ice
This isn't telling us something we don't know, but it's a good thing NASA makes these vids (h/t Greenman3610):
Thanks Neven!
Commented Sep 26, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 21: post mortem at Arctic Sea Ice
SIE 2011 update 21: post mortem
During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...
When arctic sea ice extent expands by more than 100,000 sq km in a day, what is the term for that? Like century breaks in the melt season.
Commented Sep 25, 2011 on SIE 2011 update 21: post mortem at Arctic Sea Ice
SIE 2011 update 21: post mortem
During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good ...
I never thought that 2013 would be the year arctic sea ice melts away completely. But the trend is down, and I think it is more likely than not that we will see a new record low in 2012 or 2013. And before 2030 I think we will see minima below 2.5 million sq. km.
As far as good ole Joe goes, I'll reserve my thoughts ;)
Commented Sep 21, 2011 on The pitfalls of prediction at Arctic Sea Ice
The pitfalls of prediction
This is the last post on pseudo-skeptics for a while, I promise. I have written four in two melting seasons, out of approximately 250 posts. --- The Arctic sea ice, it can burn. We all remember how Anthony Watts and Steven Goddard were a bit overconfident last year and predicted a nice recovery ...
I like the arctic sea ice animation but the rotation NASA put in it is distracting. I think it would be better if NASA just did a straight view from above the North Pole. With no rotation. Just focus on the state and extent of the ice.
Commented Sep 18, 2011 on NASA video of 2011 melting season at Arctic Sea Ice
NASA video of 2011 melting season
From EarthSky: NASA created a video showing the decline of the ice from its near-maximum state (in early spring 2011) to the near-minimum state (in September 2011) using the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
Ice extent down by 34,531 sq km in the past 2 days. The plot thickens. Or thins?
Commented Sep 18, 2011 on NASA video of 2011 melting season at Arctic Sea Ice
NASA video of 2011 melting season
From EarthSky: NASA created a video showing the decline of the ice from its near-maximum state (in early spring 2011) to the near-minimum state (in September 2011) using the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
Thanks for the information Ned!
Commented Sep 16, 2011 on NSIDC also calls the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC also calls the minimum
Yet another update by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) to announce that the minimum has been reached: Arctic sea ice at minimum extent Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its lowest extent for the year. The minimum ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, after ...
Is it unusual for ice extent to increase over 60,000 sq km in a day during mid September?
Commented Sep 15, 2011 on NSIDC also calls the minimum at Arctic Sea Ice
NSIDC also calls the minimum
Yet another update by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) to announce that the minimum has been reached: Arctic sea ice at minimum extent Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its lowest extent for the year. The minimum ice extent was the second lowest in the satellite record, after ...
The increase in ice cover is good news (and very surprising to me, I thought ice extent would decline another week at least!)
Living on a subtropical barrier island, I would love for global warming projections to be wrong. For temperatures and ice melt to be slower than projected, for some big negative feedback to jump out like a jack-in-the-box and save us.
I really doubt that will happen though. Even though ice extent will not set a record this year, the sea ice we have this spring will still be thin and easy to melt---lots of one year ice. And even if we don't set a new record low minimum next year I believe the time is coming soon that we will.
There's not much to my comment, really. I wish that the projections of melting ice were wrong, but I am sure they are not. This year keeps the downward trend intact, even with the ice recovery these past few days. I'm sure Anthony Watts will be crowing, if he hasn't already. (I used to look in on his site occasionally, but his nonsense is so bad that I don't lurk there anymore)
Commented Sep 14, 2011 on The fat lady's singing at Arctic Sea Ice
The fat lady's singing
I've been speculating about this quite a while now (see update conclusion). For a minute it looked as though we were getting a grand finale, even though this melting season had quite significant hiccups starting mid-July. But the weather forecasts are now such that a turnaround (which I'm not se...
This pause surprised me. I still think we'll go down below 4.5 million sq km. Then it should be interesting to read about what kind of weather patterns help arctic sea ice grow and what patterns hold back the advance of the ice this fall.
We're still learning about this stuff :)
Commented Sep 13, 2011 on First uptick IJIS at Arctic Sea Ice
First uptick IJIS
This is another one of those small signs that the combination of ice thickness and warm waters are overruling the influence of weather conditions. For the first time this melting season the IJIS numeric data of sea ice extent file is showing an uptick for yesterday's extent number after revision...
I've voted between 4 and 4.5 in the polls, and it looks good. I also think 4.3 will be the low this year. Very close, but not quite there.
I do think a melt to below 4 million is coming soon. By that I mean 2012 or 2013.
Commented Sep 8, 2011 on Final poll results at Arctic Sea Ice
Final poll results
The last poll from the widget in the right hand bar closed a week ago. I want to share the results with you before the final SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook comes out. Mind you, I preferred the Arctic Sea Ice blog's poll to be about IJIS daily minimum extent. The SEARCH SIO predictions are for NSIDC Sept...
Thanks for translating this. It is a most interesting account!
Commented Aug 31, 2011 on Through the eyes of Healy at Arctic Sea Ice
Through the eyes of Healy
This is a translation of a blog post on the excellent Spanish blog on Arctic sea ice called Diablobanquisa: Towards the North Pole aboard the Healy We go aboard the icebreaker USCGC Healy again... ...to travel from the Alaskan coast almost all the way to the North Pole. Its position and route ...
Still 187 thousand square km more than the same date in 2007, but it won't take many more days like it. From 31/8/2007 to 2/9/2007 ice extent *gained* 10,000 square km, so we might just break the 2007 mark!
Commented Aug 31, 2011 on 2011 End Zone at Arctic Sea Ice
2011 End Zone
Last year I wrote a series of five posts called End Zone, comparing different aspects of the final phase of the Arctic melting season in different years, to be able to predict a bit what those last weeks of the 2010 melting season could be holding in store. A lot of that ground work still stands...
Good grief. Nearly a century break!
Commented Aug 31, 2011 on 2011 End Zone at Arctic Sea Ice
2011 End Zone
Last year I wrote a series of five posts called End Zone, comparing different aspects of the final phase of the Arctic melting season in different years, to be able to predict a bit what those last weeks of the 2010 melting season could be holding in store. A lot of that ground work still stands...
I asked the date of the latest century break last month, but I forgot. Is this the latest? We went down 10% of the way to a record low in one day!
Commented Aug 23, 2011 on Flash melting at Arctic Sea Ice
Flash melting
I introduced the term 'flash melting' in a recent SIE update. It was a pun on the term 'flash flooding' where lots of rain falls out of the sky in a short amount of time, causing creeks and rivers to flood very fast. I based the concept on the state of large parts of the ice pack in the Beaufort...
Who is Steve Goddard, really? His bio is, um, vague.
Commented Aug 22, 2011 on Poll Results 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Poll Results 2
Here's an update on the poll widget in the right side bar. A few weeks back I started a new poll to see whether expectations had shifted since the first poll. I have put up a third and final poll for these last few weeks that ends September 1st (so don't wait too long). This is the result of the...
Ice extent did fall more than 60,000 square km yesterday. I'm pretty sure we'll be down below 5 million by the end of August.
Commented Aug 22, 2011 on Poll Results 2 at Arctic Sea Ice
Poll Results 2
Here's an update on the poll widget in the right side bar. A few weeks back I started a new poll to see whether expectations had shifted since the first poll. I have put up a third and final poll for these last few weeks that ends September 1st (so don't wait too long). This is the result of the...
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